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DrakeStorm
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T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 03:46
Here is the first results of the new TELO rankings. It is comprised of all the 2 Player USA match results from 2006 onward (2006-2012 NC, all SPWCs, Leagues, etc.). Over 5,000 matches with about 375 different players over the years. I will put the full list on Tikipedia later, along with seperate TELO calculations for 2P Europe, USA Multi, etc. The below list is the Top 50 active players (who have played a 2P USA tournament match in 2012 or later).

Direct link to Top 10 in each category. HERE
(Still missing results from 2005 NC, and Current Leagues, MEMC semis)

2P USA TELO
1778	Angel6
1714	chrismmm
1712	Schwen
1709	Goscha
1708	Truckerteller
1684	daedin
1659	xbomanx
1648	WhiteTrain
1648	kostasss
1640	Elric - Sancerre
1617	Black-Is-Back
1616	Tenniskasi
1616	Miguel
1616	pegaso
1615	blubes
1614	Hecki
1611	Val
1609	Will
1600	menno
1599	wasdenn
1596	Sysyphus
1594	toutoune
1593	Pifbat69
1591	Davidb9 - Mercurey
1589	Knockando
1587	deep_blue
1586	womble
1585	Néozen - Cairanne
1585	rudi
1581	youki
1580	Lcremita
1577	RMarkes
1574	Geoff
1570	sebbo
1570	Ishamael
1567	Volleytom
1563	Marschall Vorwärts
1561	335d
1559	Urgestein
1559	PapiXulu
1558	ommie
1558	Anu_
1557	Nayeli
1552	thekid
1551	stemayf
1547	foudecoasters
1547	DrakeStorm
1545	Masimo
1544	dea1
1544	bbandccrock

[Aktualisiert am: Thu, 05 September 2013 12:08]

      
DrakeStorm
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) Thu, 05 September 2013 03:49
And below is the same 50 players with just their Nation's Cup results and win percentage.

Angel6        (38 - 11 - 3 )   0.73
chrismmm      (18 - 9 - 0 )    0.67
Schwen        (29 - 13 - 0 )   0.69
Goscha        (29 - 12 - 0 )   0.71
Truckerteller (25 - 7 - 1 )    0.76
daedin        (33 - 8 - 0 )    0.8
xbomanx       (15 - 8 - 0 )    0.65
WhiteTrain    (15 - 2 - 0 )    0.88
kostasss      (24 - 5 - 1 )    0.8
Elric         (18 - 15 - 1 )   0.53
Black-Is-Back (18 - 4 - 0 )    0.82
Tenniskasi    (14 - 9 - 1 )    0.58
Miguel        (20 - 12 - 0 )   0.63
pegaso        (28 - 16 - 0 )   0.64
blubes        (9 - 5 - 1 )     0.6
Hecki         (20 - 15 - 1 )   0.56
Val           (10 - 18 - 0 )   0.36
Will          (11 - 7 - 1 )    0.58
menno         (14 - 11 - 0 )   0.56
wasdenn       (21 - 12 - 2 )   0.6
Sysyphus      (16 - 10 - 3 )   0.55
toutoune      (17 - 16 - 3 )   0.47
Pifbat69      (8 - 6 - 0 )     0.57
Davidb9       (22 - 14 - 2 )   0.58
Knockando     (9 - 6 - 2 )     0.53
deep_blue     (21 - 13 - 1 )   0.6
womble        (31 - 17 - 0 )   0.65
Néozen        (20 - 9 - 1 )    0.67
rudi          (18 - 10 - 0 )   0.64
youki         (24 - 9 - 0 )    0.73
Lcremita      (12 - 7 - 0 )    0.63
RMarkes       (20 - 10 - 2 )   0.63
Geoff         (19 - 8 - 1 )    0.68
sebbo         (22 - 11 - 0 )   0.67
Ishamael      (10 - 4 - 1 )    0.67
Volleytom     (27 - 16 - 1 )   0.61
M.   Vorwärts (14 - 9 - 2 )    0.56
335d          (0 - 0 - 0 )     0
Urgestein     (19 - 11 - 1 )   0.61
PapiXulu      (21 - 17 - 0 )   0.55
ommie         (13 - 8 - 1 )    0.59
Anu_          (10 - 4 - 0 )    0.71
Nayeli        (14 - 8 - 0 )    0.64
thekid        (25 - 12 - 0 )   0.68
stemayf       (21 - 16 - 3 )   0.53
foudecoasters (15 - 12 - 2 )   0.52
DrakeStorm    (26 - 14 - 2 )   0.62
Masimo        (18 - 12 - 1 )   0.58
dea1          (32 - 16 - 1 )   0.65
bbandccrock   (3 - 1 - 0 )     0.75


**If a player's win percentage is high, but lower on this list it either means they didn't do as well in other events (SPWC, League, etc.), or they had easier opponents in NC.

[Aktualisiert am: Thu, 05 September 2013 04:33]

      
Knockando
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 07:49
Thanks Drake for this work and ranking !

Just a question :
T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 means that games already played in League 13 before 4th os september are in, or you'll wait the end of the tournament to adf them ?
      
Sysyphus - Pommard
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 08:05
No, I haven't collected the data yet. It's better to do it once both leagues are over.

[Aktualisiert am: Thu, 05 September 2013 20:20]

      
Truckerteller
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 10:37
Thanks for all the work Drake and Sysyphus !

Does this mean I will finally exit your nightmare team, Drake ?

Seems like the Mudda vs. theKid feud was more like a kindergarten peeing contest than a rivalry to be taken serious. Rolling Eyes
      
TuS WhiteTrain
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 18:55
A lot of effort for a very small output i would say.

Now we have a list that tells us, that "Angel6" did remarkable things over the last years and "SAW-ich will ein Spiel spielen" is not on that list.
Ok, somehow i knew that allready Wink

"Chrismmm","Schwen", "Goscha", "Truckerteller", "Daedin", "Xbomanx" and "Kostasss" are tough opponents.

Sounds not very new to me either.

The succesion of those players is completely useless for my taste.

Just as an example (no personal offense) "Schwen" has a worse winning percentage than me in NC and SPWC but he is more than 60 TELO points ahead. So i thought it must be the league results ( where i never played by the way). But since his winning percentage there, is even lower than in NC( which is plausible due to the fact that the quality of the opponents is higher), i wonder where the points come from.

Sorry guys, much work for not much information.








[Aktualisiert am: Thu, 05 September 2013 19:00]

      
Truckerteller
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 19:23
Well, apart from my super awesome top 40 players list, it's the best and only REAL list out there (and gauging from the reactions to my top 40 list, some education was in place for the likes of Mudda, Onyx, toutoune and Will, most likely others as well). And it took a lot of work, I'm sure. So be nice !

The "problem" with such a list (most prominently with Asia), is that it depends on a small nr of results. Everyone starts at 1500 and you gain or lose points from there. You need a lot of results for rankings to stabilize.

As for you, Felix, I've run the numbers Julien gave me with a higher K factor and then I reran it 5 times (starting at 2009) to get enough matches for everyone, and then you end up as nr 3, behind Angel and myself. How's that ?

At some points though, you have to admit that winning pct isn't everything. What about having a 6-1 record in one NC ? Should Tinkerbell and Tofra be high on the list ? You and Kostass have played far less than Schwen. Moreover, you've avoided some tough opponents in NC by not being in the line-up against CAT and AMD in 2011 and AT in 2012. Play more and win more.

What do you want from such a list, apart from being in first place ?


[Aktualisiert am: Thu, 05 September 2013 19:29]

      
Sysyphus - Pommard
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 20:46
We are not saying that it's the ultimate ranking page, but we were aiming at creating a tool who would give a better reflection of player's current strength than the current DoW rankings.
I think that it's already a huge improvement.

And to make it more credible, we need more tourney games to fuel the TELO.

If we manage to set up a tourney/league with 16 of the top 20-25 from TELO ranking, would you play it ? Would you help to make that ranking more accurate ?

Concerning your ELO, I think Sven pretty much say it all.
You need to play more games, more games against stronger opponents and not lose early in SPWC to be number 1 Wink.

Players make the rankings, not us !

[Aktualisiert am: Thu, 05 September 2013 20:54]

      
TuS WhiteTrain
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 21:30
Sysyphus - Pommard schrieb am Thu, 05 September 2013 20:46

We are not saying that it's the ultimate ranking page, but we were aiming at creating a tool who would give a better reflection of player's current strength than the current DoW rankings.
I think that it's already a huge improvement.



´

I get your point, but do you think you reflect a players current strength with results of 2006? A large disadvantage vs the DoW rankings.
That list is fishy and even more, the lower you look in the ranking.

Furthermore, if the number of tourneys has an influence on the list i am out anyway, cause i `m not interested in any other tournament than the 2 i play Wink

And to Truck, i dont avoid anyone , either i was on vacation or my wise captain decided that someone else should play.

[Aktualisiert am: Thu, 05 September 2013 21:38]

      
Sysyphus - Pommard
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 22:52
TuS WhiteTrain wrote on Thu, 05 September 2013 13:30


I get your point, but do you think you reflect a players current strength with results of 2006? A large disadvantage vs the DoW rankings.


Well, Angel is at the top of the list, not because of 2006 but because of last 2/3 years, same for Truck, chriss, kostasss.
Elric may a bit a higher than normal, but he won recently a League.
Hecki just did well in Fusion, and has been able to stay in Division A in League.

I wish we could put someone like Anu higher (I think we all agree that she's better than that), but she did not play a tourney other than Fusion and NC 2006, SPWC 2007 + CL.

We can break the Elo anyway we want to. I'm pretty sure Drake can show you an ELO based on 2011/2012/2013.
It should not be that far from what we have right now.

Quote:


That list is fishy and even more, the lower you look in the ranking.


List is based on performance during tourneys. Same formula for everybody. Dunno what we can do apart from making custom adjustments !

Quote:


Furthermore, if the number of tourneys has an influence on the list i am out anyway, cause i'm not interested in any other tournament than the 2 i play Wink


What should we do then ? Model is still to be improved, we consider any suggestion ?

Perceived rankings ? Including biased opinions ?

[Aktualisiert am: Fri, 06 September 2013 02:20]

      
TuS WhiteTrain
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Thu, 05 September 2013 23:09
Sysyphus - Pommard schrieb am Thu, 05 September 2013 20:46



If we manage to set up a tourney/league with 16 of the top 20-25 from TELO ranking, would you play it ? Would you help to make that ranking more accurate ?






I like the idea of a league or a ladder, but not the way it is done at the moment.

Maybe 12-16 players and the time frame should be the whole year, which will be trouble if players are not reliable, are not availabe for scheduling for long, or drop out because of such a long time.

[Aktualisiert am: Thu, 05 September 2013 23:10]

      
DrakeStorm
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Fri, 06 September 2013 00:21
TuS WhiteTrain wrote on Thu, 05 September 2013 12:30


I get your point, but do you think you reflect a players current strength with results of 2006? A large disadvantage vs the DoW rankings.
That list is fishy and even more, the lower you look in the ranking.



Not even sure what this means. That TELO doesn't go back far enough? We have all the tournaments except NC 2005 which will be put in at some point. And if you are saying the opposite, then you don't understand ELO. DoW's ELO takes into consideration all games all the way back to the beginning. The only thing DoW's ELO has is alot more data points. In 2P USA we have a decent amount to start being accurate, in Europe, Asia, etc., we will need more tournaments.


Quote:


Furthermore, if the number of tourneys has an influence on the list i am out anyway, cause i `m not interested in any other tournament than the 2 i play Wink


The number of tournaments does matter some, just the same as the number of games you play for DoW's ELO. There is no way you could get to 1800 by playing 100 games, just the same there is not much chance of being on top of TELO if you play in 1 tournament, after all its a Tournament ELO (though if you were already in top 10 and won the next SPWC you might). But with TELO, the more tournaments you play doesn't guarentee you will rise in the rankings - there are plenty of examples of that.

The k-factor is high enough that you can rise in TELO pretty fast, you just need to win, like Angel. Can't expect to be at the top if you lose 2nd round and 1st round of the last 2 SPWCs, no matter what your win percentage in NC is.

Sure we all have our idea of who the top TTR players are, don't need TELO or DoW's ELO for that. But which top players have actually performed in Tournaments? TELO basically sums it up, you don't have to go look at who won SPWC 2 years ago, who won League last season, etc. TELO says who the best tournament player is now.
      
TuS WhiteTrain
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Fri, 06 September 2013 11:08
DrakeStorm schrieb am Fri, 06 September 2013 00:21

And if you are saying the opposite, then you don't understand ELO. DoW's ELO takes into consideration all games all the way back to the beginning. The only thing DoW's ELO has is alot more data points. In 2P USA we have a decent amount to start being accurate, in Europe, Asia, etc., we will need more tournaments.





I wonder if you understand the DOW ELO.
The data of 2005-2011 in my DOW ELO have almost no influence on the current rating. It wouldnt matter, if i was a 1400 or 1800+ player at the end of 2011, my rating would be almost the same as it is now. I think 500 games played since then and the difference should be negligible.

[Aktualisiert am: Fri, 06 September 2013 11:09]

      
Truckerteller
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Fri, 06 September 2013 11:21
Any suggestions or proposals ? When would a TELO be good enough and what should it do ?

Volleytom should be higher, Elric should be lower ? WhiteTrain should be higher, Schwen should be lower ? Why ?

Feel free to post here:
http://www.daysofwonder.com/en/msg/?th=25318&start=0

An alternative list could be Highest 2P + USA score ever.
Maybe 3 players were over 4000 once.

      
DrakeStorm
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Fri, 20 September 2013 01:22
I posted the full lists as of 9/19/2013

http://www.tickipedia.net/wiki/Telo_Main

Everything is updated except Multi, and only includes players who have played in a tournament in the last 2 years.

Also, it will become more meaningful as time goes on and more data gets input. Individually, players who have played less than 20 matches or so, it will not be that meaningful. The Top 50 should be pretty good for the USA map as almost everyone has played a decent amount of matches.

Since ELO/TELO is a zero sum game (i.e. for every point someone goes up, someone else has to go down), getting a high score in TELO is alot harder than ELO since there are no newbies to steal points from, only other tournament players! I am using a higher k-factor than DoW uses for ELO so rising up the list should be easier (if you win) as well as sliding down (if you lose).


[Aktualisiert am: Fri, 20 September 2013 10:07]

      
AT_Angel6
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Tue, 26 November 2013 11:32
Just found this, and I'm thrilled! Very Happy

1st of all: much work for very much gain!!!
Because obviously we've now got a (more-or-less complete) database with all tourney games played in T2R history.
So even if the ELO ranking is completely useless, it will be very easy to do a new list with better criteria Wink

2nd: the list is not bad at all, for example 2p USA:
1. Angel6
2. chrismmm
3. Schwen
4. Goscha
5. Truckerteller
6. daedin
7. xbomanx
8. WhiteTrain
9. kostasss
10. Elric - Sancerre

Who can deny that this is a very good who-is-who of T2R list?

Elric was not so great over the years, but don't forget he won League A with an all time record score only a year ago. This has to be represented in the list, but not overly much because everybody can get a lucky streak (on top of his great play).

And who is missing here? Some great players!
But look at the complete list - all good names are there!
Some didn't play enough, some weren't successful enough.
I don't dare critisize this list much at all.

3rd: can we do a better ranking?
I think YES, quite easily!
Probably, we all agree that T2R still develops, the tops get better and better, and the players that don't play lose ground.
I'm not as good as half a year ago, and Sysy at 2012 2p ranking today might be as good as I was months ago at 2032.

4rd: Suggestion for an improved ranking:Every time a new game is added, not only the winner gets some points from the loser, but also
-) BOTH players get 0.2 EOL points for tourney experience.
-) ALL players lose (0.4/# of players) for losing ground while not playing tourneys. Thus, average 1500 for all players would be preserved forever. With a tool like excel, this it not a problem to calculate (when recalculation, the # of players at the moment of the calculated game as to be taken!).
[0.2 might be too high or low, you need to probe some numbers to get a feel what's correct]

Imho, this ranking would better represent "real" playing strength.
AND, players getting a unique winning streak, like I luckily had, won't be able to keep top positions by stopping to play.
(I don't plan to play much T2R for the rest of my future life, and it would be stupid to read my name on top of the list 2036 Laughing )

Smile
      
Qorlas
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Tue, 26 November 2013 12:12
Thanks for the suggestions Smile

We have already a two years time deadline. I f you don't play a competitive tournament in two years your ranking is excluded.
      
Truckerteller
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Tue, 26 November 2013 12:40
I think after this NC, the list should fill out fairly well. toutoune is currently 7-0, schnupferl is 5,5-0,5, Patterson is 5,5-1,5, Thomue is 3-0, Volleytom is 4-0, dea is 5,5-1,5, WhiteTrain is 4-1, Sysyphus, Knockando and womble may win some points so the top 20 will look pretty solid.

Manipulating points based on playing is a very bad idea. Just leaving out a player from the ranking based on not playing for a full year should be fine. Deveric is virtually in the top 10, but not listed because he didn't play. He should be back after NC. Gary Kasparov is not in the FIDE Elo list, he's inactive at spot nr. 2, nobody has a problem with that.

edit: Oh, and win percentage in these tables should obviously include ties: i.e. if you win 10 and tie 10, your percentage is 75%.

[Aktualisiert am: Tue, 26 November 2013 12:42]

      
AT_Angel6
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Tue, 26 November 2013 13:25
SOS Truckerteller schrieb am Tue, 26 November 2013 12:40

Gary Kasparov is not in the FIDE Elo list, he's inactive at spot nr. 2, nobody has a problem with that.

It's a flaw in the system. If Gary plays one game he is real #2, right? Stupid imho.
In T2R it's more extreme, because play develops more than in chess. A 2005 top player today is 1450 imho...
      
Qorlas
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Tue, 26 November 2013 13:53
In any case, the real use is to seed the tournaments. So if one player is back, it means he played a tournament after a long time and the period of inactivity should have worsened his play level.
      
Sysyphus - Pommard
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Re:T-ELO (Tournament ELO) 9/4/13 Wed, 27 November 2013 00:34
AAA_Angel6 wrote on Tue, 26 November 2013 03:32


I'm not as good as half a year ago, and Sysy at 2012 2p ranking today might be as good as I was months ago at 2032.



I am quite not as good as you are in tournaments : consistency, win in finals, being clutch for your NC team, you do it way better than I do in 2p USA. I'd not be shocked to see you still above me in Telo after a year off.

Regarding my 2012 ELO. 2er Since top players have played more top 2er lately, I guess my ELO inflated by 20/30 points.

Over the last 3 months, despite the high level of competition, DoW's number 1 has been trusted by the best '1400 to 1550' serial-killer. It's good to have Telo for tournaments.
We can draw way more conclusions about players' strength by reading, fueling, using TELO than DOW's, which looks like a nice goodie now.

Establishing a new league with a seeding basically based on NC's performance, mixed with the last league/SPWC results, is also more valid than using DOW's 2p USA. You've had a chance to prove yourself if you want to be well seeded instead of benefiting from a good streak.

I hope this will lead to some good competition, with tons of new players or tons players back in the renovated format.

[Aktualisiert am: Wed, 27 November 2013 00:37]

      
    
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