|Forum: Memoir '44 Online - English|
| Thema: Probabilities analysis for MM44, spreadsheet, and complex odds calculator|
Probabilities analysis for MM44, spreadsheet, and complex odds calculator
Tue, 29 July 2014 01:54
So, I've been wondering lately about the odds of certain situations in MM44, especially with overruns, in odd situations (different numbers of dice for each phase of the battle.) I've looked at some available MM44 spreadsheets and the like, and didn't really see what I was looking for.
So, I wrote a bunch, and I'm making them available to anyone who is interested!
First, the download URL:
- mm_calc.xls: a spreadsheet, that shows single-roll and overrun probabilities of death of a unit, based on number of dice, and health of the unit.
- MM44Calc.exe: a Windows command tool, which can be used to calculate specific unit death odds for any combination of single roll, overrun, health of defending unit, and variable dice for the first and second attack (overrun). Run it by itself, to show the command line usage/parameters. This tool does a full combinatorial analysis of all possible outcomes in the setup, to determine the odds.
- main.cpp: the C++ source code for the above program, free for anyone to review, edit, use, abuse, etc! There are of course NO viruses or anything in the program... I compiled it myself, for Windows, but it is portable to any C++ environment for the curious.
The single roll table in the spreadsheet is probability based, since that case is fairly simple (it is in effect a 'Bernoulli Trial'). The overrun case is more complicated, and I used the MM44Calc program to determine the corresponding values in the overrun table in the spreadsheet. I have manually computed the statistical probability of a few cases, to ensure the overrun program values are correct.
The command line tool is like this:
MM44Calc.exe [# defending units] [# die hits on attack 1] [# of die on attack #1] <# die hits on attack 2> <# of die on attack #2>
- # defending units: 1 to 4, # of units in the defender
- # die hits on attack 1: number of die faces that are a hit, from 1 to 4
- # of die on attack #1: # of dice that are rolled on the first attack
- # die hits on attack 2 (optional): number of die faces that are a hit, from 1 to 4
- # of die on attack #2 (optional): # of dice that are rolled on the second attack
- generate the single roll attack tables
- generate the simple overrun attack tables
For example, suppose you want to know the odds of an inf. wiping out a healthy 3-tank with retreat options, adjacent: MM44Calc 3 2 3 0 0. 3 for 3 units in the tank, 2 for die facings that are hits (grenade, tank), 3 for # dice the inf rolls. From the second table in the spreadsheet, 3/3 column: 3.70%. Suppose it's a Japanese full strength unit, Close Assault, or Finest Hour (i.e. 4 die): MM44Calc 3 2 4 0 0, 11.11%.
Now, suppose it's a tank attack that tank, with an overrun option (i.e. retreat available): MM44Calc 3 2 3 2 3, or 13.29%! Quite a jump up from 3.7% for one attack!
Suppose the first attack is only one die: MM44Calc 3 2 1 2 3: 0.62% (ugh!).
Anyway, this gives you the flavour of the tools. The program can answer many more questions than what is in the spreadsheet.
|Forum: Ticket to Ride - the Digital Game - English|
| Thema: Private iPad games asking for a password|
Private iPad games asking for a password
Tue, 29 July 2014 03:24
I am trying to play a private game against my dad. We are both using iPads. I find his username from my buddy list, invite him to play, and he gets an invitation asking for the game's password. The problem is, I was never asked to create a password. Nor was there any option to password protect the game in the first place. What are we doing wrong? How do two iPad players create a private game that doesn't involve a password ... Can I just invite a friend to play, he accepts, and the game starts? Thanks in advance ... JG