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Qorlas
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NC - the run for playoffs Fri, 09 October 2009 01:19
Hi all,

I am really enjoying the run for the 4 places in playoffs that is going on in the 3 groups and I am thinking to draw a short sketch of the situation Smile. I will do an update next week. This is just a way to put calculations down Wink


9.10

Group A: 2 upsets (CAT over TT and SMP over CAT)

Current Standing
UEG 3-0
TT 3-1
CAT 2-1
SMP 2-1
AGT 1-1
BH 0-3
FIN 0-4

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
UEG 6-0
CAT 4-2
TT 4-2
AGT 3-3
BH 2-4
SMP 2-4
FIN 0-6

There is a close run for second place between CAT and TT, they could reach UEG if they beat them in their matches. For the 4th place is a close race between AGT, BH and SMP

Group B: 5 upsets (TRUE over TRB, White over TRUE, White over TIC, ITA over OLE, ITA over TD)

Current Standing
TRB 3-1
OLE 2-1
TRUE 2-1
White 2-2
ITA 2-2
TIC 1-2
TD 0-3

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding (in a group like this one? Wink ):

OLE 5-1
TRB 4-2
TRUE 4-2
White 4-2
TIC 2-4
ITA 2-4
TD 0-6

The 4 teams for the playoffs appear to have an edge, but TIC and ITA are really close. Few further upsets could realy change everything in all the positions. First place will go to the best performer in the matches between OLE, TRB and TRUE.

Group C: 1 upset (AT over SOS)

Current Standing
Red 4-0
AT 3-0
SOS 2-1
AMD 1-1
RCMP 1-1
TA 0-4
NGH 0-4

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
SOS 5-1
Red 5-1
AT 4-2
AMD 4-2
TA 2-4
RCMP 1-5
NGH 0-6

AMD-RCMP is already a decisive match for the last place in playoffs. SOS can still win the group but they have to do everything well. Red TGV has still to play the two matches against SOS and AT that will probably decide the first 3 places. The best second appears to have good chances to come out from this group.

If the final standings will be the expected ones, then the KO bracket would be (from top to bottom), and please this is just a previewing play, everything off course will be different (I hope Wink ):

Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F

1E - UEG
bye

3F - TRUE
3D - AT

2D - Red
bye

2F - TRB
4E - AGT

1F - OLE
bye

2E - CAT
4D - AMD

1D - SOS
bye

3E - TT
4F - White

Hoping to have made all calculations right and.... this is just a preview Smile and everything can change in real events.

Q.

[Updated on: Fri, 09 October 2009 01:20]

      
Qorlas
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Sun, 11 October 2009 23:44
12.10

Group A: 2 upsets (CAT over TT and SMP over CAT)

Current Standing
UEG 3-0
TT 3-1
CAT 2-1
SMP 2-1
AGT 2-1
BH 0-4
FIN 0-4

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
UEG 6-0
CAT 4-2
TT 4-2
AGT 3-3
BH 2-4
SMP 2-4
FIN 0-6

There is a close run for second place between CAT and TT, they could reach UEG if they beat them in their matches. For the 4th place BH needs to beat SMP and hope.

Group B: 5 upsets (TRUE over TRB, White over TRUE, White over TIC, ITA over OLE, ITA over TD)

Current Standing
TRB 3-1
TRUE 3-1
OLE 2-1
White 2-2
ITA 2-2
TIC 1-3
TD 0-3

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding (in a group like this one? ):

OLE 5-1
TRB 4-2
TRUE 4-2
White 4-2
TIC 2-4
ITA 2-4
TD 0-6

The 4 teams for the playoffs appear to have an edge, but TIC and ITA are really close. TIC hopes are becoming slim after the 3 losses with TRUE. First place will go to the best performer in the matches between OLE, TRB and TRUE.

Group C: 1 upset (AT over SOS)

Current Standing
Red 4-0
AT 3-0
SOS 2-1
AMD 2-1
RCMP 1-2
TA 0-4
NGH 0-4

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
SOS 5-1
Red 5-1
AT 4-2
AMD 4-2
TA 2-4
RCMP 1-5
NGH 0-6

SOS can still win the group but they have to do everything well. Red TGV has still to play the two matches against SOS and AT , they need to beat RED next round to conclude the group better then 3rd. The best second appears to have good chances to come out from this group. TA vs RCMP is already a KO match with the loser out (for sure if TA, almost if RCMP), both should hope that AT beats AMD to have hopes of reaching the 4th place.

If the final standings will be the expected ones, then the KO bracket would be (from top to bottom), and please this is just a previewing play, everything off course will be different (I hope ):

Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F

1E - UEG
bye

3F - TRUE
3D - AT

2D - Red
bye

2F - TRB
4E - AGT

1F - OLE
bye

2E - CAT
4D - AMD

1D - SOS
bye

3E - TT
4F - White

Hoping to have made all calculations right and.... this is just a preview and everything can change in real events.

Q.
      
Qorlas
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Mon, 19 October 2009 20:05
19.10

Group A: 2 upsets (CAT over TT and SMP over CAT)

Current Standing
UEG 4-0
CAT 4-1
TT 3-2
SMP 2-2
AGT 2-2
BH 1-4
FIN 0-5

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
UEG 6-0
CAT 4-2
TT 4-2
AGT 3-3
BH 2-4
SMP 2-4
FIN 0-6

UEG and CAT appears to have secured 1st and 2nd place. Only a large win of CAT in the direct clash in the last round would give him the 1st place. TT needs to beat AGT this week to be sure of the playoffs, while in the last round 4th place will be decided in the match between AGT and SMP. BH and FIN are out for sure.

Group B: 5 upsets (TRUE over TRB, White over TRUE, White over TIC, ITA over OLE, ITA over TD)

Current Standing
OLE 3-1
TRUE 3-1
TRB 3-2
White 3-2
ITA 2-2
TIC 1-3
TD 0-4

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding (in a group like this one? ):

OLE 5-1
TRB 4-2
TRUE 4-2
White 4-2
TIC 2-4
ITA 2-4
TD 0-6

TIC needs to beat TRB and TD with good scores to have a hope for the playoff First place should go to the winner of the last round game between TRUE and OLE. No team is yet sure 100% of a playoff place. Last round game between ITA and White could be decisive for the playoffs.

Group C: 2 upsets (AT over SOS, AT over AMD)

Current Standing
AT 4-0
Red 4-1
SOS 3-1
AMD 2-2
RCMP 1-3
TA 1-4
NGH 0-4

Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
SOS 5-1
Red 5-1
AT 5-1
AMD 3-3
TA 2-4
RCMP 1-5
NGH 0-6

The win of SOS with RED gave them the chance to win the group, but everything will be decided in RED-AT. If RED wins the 3 teams will conclude even. If AT wins, then thay should win the group. For the last place in the playoffs AMD needs just to beat with a good score NGH to be practically in.

If the final standings will be the expected ones, then the KO bracket would be (from top to bottom), and please this is just a previewing play, everything off course will be different (I hope ):

Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F

1E - UEG
bye

3F - TRUE
3D - AT

2D - Red
bye

2F - TRB
4E - AGT

1F - OLE
bye

2E - CAT
4D - AMD

1D - SOS
bye

3E - TT
4F - White

Hoping to have made all calculations right and.... this is just a preview and everything can change in real events.

Q.

[Updated on: Mon, 19 October 2009 20:07]

      
AGT-DN
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Sun, 25 October 2009 20:12
Ranking in dependence on last weeks results:

Group A:

UEG-CAT
AGT-SMP
BH-FIN


UEG
  • win --> 1st
  • defeat max 0-5 (-8 in games) --> 1st
  • defeat min 0-5 (-9 in games) --> 2nd
  • --> 1st


CAT
  • win min 5-0 (+9 in games) --> 1st
  • win max 5-0 (+8 in games) --> 2nd
  • defeat --> 2nd
  • -->2nd


TT
  • --> 3rd


SMP
  • win --> 4th
  • defeat+FIN wins --> 5th
  • defeat+BH wins --> 6th


AGT
  • win --> 4th
  • defeat+FIN wins --> 5th
  • defeat+BH wins --> 6th


BH
  • win --> 5th
  • defeat max 1-4 --> 6th
  • defeat 0-5 --> 7th


FIN
  • win 5-0 --> 6th
  • win max 4-1 --> 7th
  • defeat --> 7th
  • --> 7th



Group B:

OLE-TRUE
White-ITA
TIC-TD


OLE
  • win --> 1st
  • defeat max 1-4 --> 2nd
  • defeat 0-5 AND other constellation than below --> 3rd
  • defeat 0-5 AND White wins 5-0 AND White games won-lost vs ITA is at least better by 28 than OLE games won-lost vs TRUE (such as OLE-TRUE 0-5 (00-15) AND White-ITA 5-0 (15-02)) --> 4th


TRB
  • OLE wins --> 2nd
  • TRUE wins 5-0 --> 2nd
  • TRUE wins max 4-1 --> 3rd


TRUE
  • win --> 1st
  • defeat AND other constellation than below --> 3rd
  • defeat AND White wins AND White matches won-lost vs ITA is at least better by 5 than TRUE matches won-lost vs OLE (such as OLE-TRUE 4-1 AND White-ITA 4-1) --> 4th


White
  • win 5-0 AND TRUE wins 5-0 AND White games won-lost vs ITA is at least better by 28 than OLE games won-lost vs TRUE (such as OLE-TRUE 0-5 (00-15) AND White-ITA 5-0 (15-02)) --> 3rd
  • win AND OLE wins AND White matches won-lost vs ITA is at least better by 5 than TRUE matches won-lost vs OLE (such as OLE-TRUE 4-1 AND White-ITA 4-1) --> 3rd
  • win AND other constellation than both above --> 4th
  • defeat max 2-3 --> 4th
  • defeat min 1-4 --> 5th


ITA
  • win min 4-1 --> 4th
  • win 3-2 --> 5th
  • defeat AND other constellation than both below --> 5th
  • defeat AND TIC wins AND TIC matches won-lost vs TD is better by 6 than ITA matches won-lost vs White AND TIC games won-lost vs TD is at least better by 10 than ITA games won-lost vs White (such as TIC-TD 3-2 (10-10) AND White-ITA 5-0 (15-05)) --> 6th
  • defeat AND TIC wins AND TIC matches won-lost vs TD is at least better by 7 than ITA matches won-lost vs White (such as TIC-TD 4-1 AND White-ITA 5-0) --> 6th


TIC
  • win AND White wins AND TIC matches won-lost vs TD is better by 6 than ITA matches won-lost vs White AND TIC games won-lost vs TD is at least better by 10 than ITA games won-lost vs White (such as TIC-TD 3-2 (10-10) AND White-ITA 5-0 (15-05)) --> 5th
  • win AND White wins AND TIC matches won-lost vs TD is at least better by 7 than ITA matches won-lost vs White (such as TIC-TD 4-1 AND White-ITA 5-0) --> 5th
  • win AND other constellation than both above --> 6th
  • defeat max 2-3 (+0 in games) --> 6th
  • defeat min 2-3 (-1 in games) --> 7th


TD
  • win min 3-2 (+1 in games) --> 6th
  • win max 3-2 (+0 in games) --> 7th
  • defeat --> 7th


I hope, all constellations are right and I did not forget any...
ITA_Qorlas schrieb am Mon, 19 October 2009 20:05

(in a group like this one? )


Group C will follow after the last matches of round 6!

[EDIT] Thx Rufuz for simplifying Group B scenario (...a little bit !)

[Updated on: Wed, 28 October 2009 22:48]

      
barneyg
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Mon, 26 October 2009 19:12
Fun stuff DN. Hope I'm not stealing your fun here, but I had some work done for group C already and it actually looks like a pain especially for 5-7 so I'll post it (see why below) --

Group C
SOS vs. AMD, AT vs. RCMP, TA vs. NGH


Here SOS, AMD, AT and Red (bye this week) are 1 through 4 but the order isn't set. TA, RCMP and NGH are 5 through 7 but the order isn't set. Turns out the complicated stuff is 5-7 -- that's why I've taken the liberty of posting here, given that the focus should be on playoff-bound teams.

SOS
- Win --> 1st
- Defeat min 1-4 AND AT loses -> 2nd
- Defeat 0-5 AND AT loses -> 3rd
- Defeat min 1-4 AND AT wins -> 3rd
- Defeat 0-5 AND AT wins -> 4th

Red
- SOS loses AND AT wins 3-2 (or loses) -> 1st
- SOS wins AND AT wins min 4-1 -> 3rd
- All else -> 2nd

AT
- Win min 4-1 AND SOS loses -> 1st
- Win min 4-1 AND SOS wins -> 2nd
- Win 3-2 AND SOS loses -> 2nd
- Win 3-2 (or any defeat) AND SOS wins -> 3rd
- Defeat 2-3 AND SOS loses 2-3 AND AMD games won-lost vs. SOS is at most 3 better than AT games won-lost vs. RCMP -> 3th
- Defeat 2-3 AND SOS loses 2-3 AND AMD games won-lost vs. SOS is at least 4 better than AT games won-lost vs. RCMP -> 4th
- Defeat 2-3 AND SOS loses 1-4 or 0-5 -> 4th
- Defeat max 1-4 AND SOS loses -> 4th

AMD
- Win 5-0 AND AT loses -> 2nd
- Win 5-0 AND AT wins -> 3rd
- Win 4-1 AND AT loses -> 3rd
- Win 3-2 AND AT loses 2-3 AND AMD games won-lost vs. SOS is at least 4 better than AT games won-lost vs. RCMP -> 3rd
- All else -> 4th

TA
- Win 3-2 AND RCMP wins 5-0 -> 6th
- Win 4-1 AND RCMP wins 5-0 AND RCMP games won-lost vs. AT is at least 6 better than TA games won-lost vs. NGH -> 6th
- Win 3-2 AND RCMP wins 4-1 AND (same condition as above) -> 6th
- Defeat 1-4 AND RCMP loses 2-3 AND (same condition as above) -> 6th
- Defeat 0-5 AND RCMP loses 1-4 AND (same condition as above) AND TA wins 3 or more games vs. NGH -> 6th
- Defeat min 1-4 AND RCMP wins -> 6th
- Defeat 0-5 AND RCMP wins AND TA wins 3 or more games vs. NGH -> 6th
- Defeat 0-5 AND RCMP loses 0-5 AND TA wins 2 or less games vs. NGH -> 6th
- Defeat 0-5 AND RCMP doesn't lose 0-5 AND TA wins 2 or less games vs. NGH -> 7th
- All else -> 5th

RCMP
- Win AND TA loses -> 5th
- Win 5-0 AND TA win 3-2 -> 5th
- Win AND TA win AND RCMP matches won vs. AT is 1 better than TA matches won vs. NGH AND RCMP games won-lost vs. AT is at least 6 better than TA games won-lost vs. NGH -> 5th
- Defeat 2-3 AND TA loses 0-5 -> 5th
- Defeat AND TA loses AND RCMP matches won vs. AT is 1 better than TA matches won vs. NGH AND RCMP games won-lost vs. AT is at least 6 better than TA games won-lost vs. NGH -> 5th
- Defeat 1-4 AND TA loses 0-5 AND NGH games won-lost vs. TA is at least 21 better than RCMP games won-lost vs. AT -> 7th
- Defeat 0-5 AND TA loses 1-4 AND (same condition as above) -> 7th
- All else -> 6th

NGH
- Win 5-0 AND RCMP loses 0-5 AND NGH loses 2 or less games to TA -> 5th
- Win 5-0 AND RCMP loses 0-5 AND NGH loses 3 or more games to TA -> 6th
- Win 5-0 AND RCMP loses 1-4 AND NGH games won-lost vs. TA is at least 21 better than RCMP games won-lost vs. AT -> 6th
- Win 4-1 AND RCMP loses 0-5 AND (same condition as above) -> 6th
- Win 5-0 AND RCMP loses min 1-4 (or wins) AND NGH loses 2 or less games to TA -> 6th
- All else -> 7th

[Updated on: Fri, 30 October 2009 15:48]

      
AGT-DN
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Mon, 26 October 2009 20:04
RCMP-barneyg schrieb am Mon, 26 October 2009 19:12

Fun stuff DN. Hope I'm not stealing your fun here


I only had fun watching the scenario for group A - group B was....well "a little" more work, so thank you for completing this overview Thumbs Up
      
barneyg
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Thu, 29 October 2009 16:05
Bump -- I have updated group C stuff following the SOS win (now 3-1 against AMD) and TA win (now 3-0 against NGH).

Basically what's left is this -- 2nd and 3rd are still undecided between the Reds and AT: if AT wins 4-1 or 5-0 against RCMP (now it's 1-0), AT finishes 2nd and the Reds 3rd. If anything else happens for them (3-2 win or loss) they finish 3rd and the Reds are 2nd.

5th and 6th are still undecided with TA clearly holding the upper hand on RCMP. For RCMP to finish 5th, we need TA to lose their 2 remaining matchups vs. NGH, AND we need to win our 4 remaining matchups against AT, AND our games won-lost vs. AT needs to be at least 6 better than TA's games won-lost vs. NGH. So far, our games won-lost vs. AT is -2, and theirs against NGH is +5.
      
foudecoasters - Cerdon
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Fri, 30 October 2009 00:05
thx for excellent job barney !

merci pour l'excellent travail cher francophone ! Very Happy
      
Qorlas
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Fri, 30 October 2009 00:35
Things to be settled for the bracket of the playoff:

Best Second placed team:

still in the run:

Red TGV 5-1 19-11
CAT 4-1 17-8 currently 1-2 with UEG --> 18-10
AT 4-1 16-9 currently 1-1 with RCMP --> 17-10

CAT needs to win their last 2 matches with UEG to win 3-2 and almost surely gain the bye for the first round of the playoffs.

Group A:

1° UEG
2° CAT
3° TT
4° AGT or SMP

Group B:

1° OLE or TRUE
2° OLE or TRB
3° TRB or TRUE or White
4° TRUE or White

Group C:

1° SOS
2° AT or Red
3° AT or Red
4° AMD
      
Qorlas
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Fri, 30 October 2009 00:42
*Bracket in case of best second = CAT

Group A=D, Group B=E, Group C=F

1E - OLE or TRUE
bye

3F - AT or Red
3D - TT

2D - CAT
bye

2F - AT or Red
4E - TRUE or White

1F - SOS
bye

2E - OLE or TRB
4D - AGT or SMP

1D - UEG
bye

3E - TRB or TRUE or White
4F - AMD

-------------

*Bracket in case of best second = AT or Red TGV

Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F

1E - UEG
bye

3F - TRB or TRUE or White
3D - AT or Red

2D - AT or Red
bye

2F - OLE or TRB
4E - AGT or SMP

1F - OLE or TRUE
bye

2E - CAT
4D - AMD

1D - SOS
bye

3E - TT
4F - TRUE or White

[Updated on: Fri, 30 October 2009 00:45]

      
OLE Masimo
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Fri, 30 October 2009 12:25
Thank you Qorlas - I was going to find all that out myself, but that is way easier - great help. Pity ITA didn`t quite make it for the playoffs, but I am sure you`ll try again next year with much more experience and then you`ll do it!
      
foudecoasters - Cerdon
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Sat, 31 October 2009 00:36
TONIGHT !

*Bracket in case of best second = CAT

Group A=D, Group B=E, Group C=F

1E - OLE or TRUE
bye

3F - AT
3D - TT

2D - CAT
bye

2F - Red
4E - TRUE or White

1F - SOS
bye

2E - OLE or TRB
4D - SMP

1D - UEG
bye

3E - TRB or TRUE or White
4F - AMD

-------------

*Bracket in case of best second = Red TGV

Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F

1E - UEG
bye

3F - TRB or TRUE or White
3D - AT

2D - Red
bye

2F - OLE or TRB
4E - SMP

1F - OLE or TRUE
bye

2E - CAT
4D - AMD

1D - SOS
bye

3E - TT
4F - TRUE or White

[Updated on: Sat, 31 October 2009 00:37]

      
Qorlas
Senior Member

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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Sat, 31 October 2009 16:00
Things to be settled for the bracket of the playoff:

Best Second placed team:

still in the run:

Red TGV 5-1 19-11
CAT 4-1 17-8 currently 1-2 with UEG --> 18-10

CAT needs to win their last 2 matches with UEG to win 3-2 and almost surely gain the bye for the first round of the playoffs.

Group A:

1° UEG
2° CAT
3° TT
4° SMP

Group B:

1° TRUE
2° OLE
3° TRB
4° White

Group C:

1° SOS
2° Red
3° AT
4° AMD

Group B is confirming to be the most uncertain one.


*Bracket in case of best second = CAT

Group A=D, Group B=E, Group C=F

1E - TRUE
bye

3F - AT
3D - TT

2D - CAT
bye

2F - Red
4E - White

1F - SOS
bye

2E - OLE
4D - SMP

1D - UEG
bye

3E - TRB
4F - AMD

-------------

*Bracket in case of best second = Red TGV

Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F

1E - UEG
bye

3F - TRB
3D - AT

2D - Red
bye

2F - OLE
4E - SMP

1F - TRUE
bye

2E - CAT
4D - AMD

1D - SOS
bye

3E - TT
4F - White

[Updated on: Sat, 31 October 2009 17:44]

      
Qorlas
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Sat, 31 October 2009 21:06
BRACKET OF THE PLAYOFFS!!!!


Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F

1E - UEG (Germany)
bye

3F - TRB (Germany)
3D - AT (Austria)

2D - Red (France)
bye

2F - OLE (Germany)
4E - SMP (Switzerland)

1F - TRUE (TNT)
bye

2E - CAT (Cat. Wink)
4D - AMD (USA)

1D - SOS (Netherlands)
bye

3E - TT (USA)
4F - White (France)


Wow the upper half look bloody Wink

No all-german or all-american final possible, but an all-french is still possible.

All the german-speaking team are in the upper half (+ the red)

We will have for sure a team never been there in the final (possibly a new nations or for the first time a TNT team)

[Updated on: Sat, 31 October 2009 21:18]

      
Elric - Sancerre
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs Mon, 02 November 2009 01:23
ITA_Qorlas écrit le Sat, 31 October 2009 21:06

All the german-speaking team are in the upper half (+ the red)

Entschuldigung Embarassed

Schlaf gut und gute Nacht für alle Very Happy Laughing
      
    
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