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Qorlas
Posts: 948
Registered:
January 2008
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NC - the run for playoffs
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Fri, 09 October 2009 01:19
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Hi all,
I am really enjoying the run for the 4 places in playoffs that is going on in the 3 groups and I am thinking to draw a short sketch of the situation  . I will do an update next week. This is just a way to put calculations down 
9.10
Group A: 2 upsets (CAT over TT and SMP over CAT)
Current Standing
UEG 3-0
TT 3-1
CAT 2-1
SMP 2-1
AGT 1-1
BH 0-3
FIN 0-4
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
UEG 6-0
CAT 4-2
TT 4-2
AGT 3-3
BH 2-4
SMP 2-4
FIN 0-6
There is a close run for second place between CAT and TT, they could reach UEG if they beat them in their matches. For the 4th place is a close race between AGT, BH and SMP
Group B: 5 upsets (TRUE over TRB, White over TRUE, White over TIC, ITA over OLE, ITA over TD)
Current Standing
TRB 3-1
OLE 2-1
TRUE 2-1
White 2-2
ITA 2-2
TIC 1-2
TD 0-3
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding (in a group like this one? ):
OLE 5-1
TRB 4-2
TRUE 4-2
White 4-2
TIC 2-4
ITA 2-4
TD 0-6
The 4 teams for the playoffs appear to have an edge, but TIC and ITA are really close. Few further upsets could realy change everything in all the positions. First place will go to the best performer in the matches between OLE, TRB and TRUE.
Group C: 1 upset (AT over SOS)
Current Standing
Red 4-0
AT 3-0
SOS 2-1
AMD 1-1
RCMP 1-1
TA 0-4
NGH 0-4
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
SOS 5-1
Red 5-1
AT 4-2
AMD 4-2
TA 2-4
RCMP 1-5
NGH 0-6
AMD-RCMP is already a decisive match for the last place in playoffs. SOS can still win the group but they have to do everything well. Red TGV has still to play the two matches against SOS and AT that will probably decide the first 3 places. The best second appears to have good chances to come out from this group.
If the final standings will be the expected ones, then the KO bracket would be (from top to bottom), and please this is just a previewing play, everything off course will be different (I hope ):
Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F
1E - UEG
bye
3F - TRUE
3D - AT
2D - Red
bye
2F - TRB
4E - AGT
1F - OLE
bye
2E - CAT
4D - AMD
1D - SOS
bye
3E - TT
4F - White
Hoping to have made all calculations right and.... this is just a preview and everything can change in real events.
Q.
[Updated on: Fri, 09 October 2009 01:20]
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Qorlas
Posts: 948
Registered:
January 2008
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Sun, 11 October 2009 23:44
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12.10
Group A: 2 upsets (CAT over TT and SMP over CAT)
Current Standing
UEG 3-0
TT 3-1
CAT 2-1
SMP 2-1
AGT 2-1
BH 0-4
FIN 0-4
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
UEG 6-0
CAT 4-2
TT 4-2
AGT 3-3
BH 2-4
SMP 2-4
FIN 0-6
There is a close run for second place between CAT and TT, they could reach UEG if they beat them in their matches. For the 4th place BH needs to beat SMP and hope.
Group B: 5 upsets (TRUE over TRB, White over TRUE, White over TIC, ITA over OLE, ITA over TD)
Current Standing
TRB 3-1
TRUE 3-1
OLE 2-1
White 2-2
ITA 2-2
TIC 1-3
TD 0-3
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding (in a group like this one? ):
OLE 5-1
TRB 4-2
TRUE 4-2
White 4-2
TIC 2-4
ITA 2-4
TD 0-6
The 4 teams for the playoffs appear to have an edge, but TIC and ITA are really close. TIC hopes are becoming slim after the 3 losses with TRUE. First place will go to the best performer in the matches between OLE, TRB and TRUE.
Group C: 1 upset (AT over SOS)
Current Standing
Red 4-0
AT 3-0
SOS 2-1
AMD 2-1
RCMP 1-2
TA 0-4
NGH 0-4
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
SOS 5-1
Red 5-1
AT 4-2
AMD 4-2
TA 2-4
RCMP 1-5
NGH 0-6
SOS can still win the group but they have to do everything well. Red TGV has still to play the two matches against SOS and AT , they need to beat RED next round to conclude the group better then 3rd. The best second appears to have good chances to come out from this group. TA vs RCMP is already a KO match with the loser out (for sure if TA, almost if RCMP), both should hope that AT beats AMD to have hopes of reaching the 4th place.
If the final standings will be the expected ones, then the KO bracket would be (from top to bottom), and please this is just a previewing play, everything off course will be different (I hope ):
Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F
1E - UEG
bye
3F - TRUE
3D - AT
2D - Red
bye
2F - TRB
4E - AGT
1F - OLE
bye
2E - CAT
4D - AMD
1D - SOS
bye
3E - TT
4F - White
Hoping to have made all calculations right and.... this is just a preview and everything can change in real events.
Q.
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Qorlas
Posts: 948
Registered:
January 2008
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Mon, 19 October 2009 20:05
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19.10
Group A: 2 upsets (CAT over TT and SMP over CAT)
Current Standing
UEG 4-0
CAT 4-1
TT 3-2
SMP 2-2
AGT 2-2
BH 1-4
FIN 0-5
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
UEG 6-0
CAT 4-2
TT 4-2
AGT 3-3
BH 2-4
SMP 2-4
FIN 0-6
UEG and CAT appears to have secured 1st and 2nd place. Only a large win of CAT in the direct clash in the last round would give him the 1st place. TT needs to beat AGT this week to be sure of the playoffs, while in the last round 4th place will be decided in the match between AGT and SMP. BH and FIN are out for sure.
Group B: 5 upsets (TRUE over TRB, White over TRUE, White over TIC, ITA over OLE, ITA over TD)
Current Standing
OLE 3-1
TRUE 3-1
TRB 3-2
White 3-2
ITA 2-2
TIC 1-3
TD 0-4
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding (in a group like this one? ):
OLE 5-1
TRB 4-2
TRUE 4-2
White 4-2
TIC 2-4
ITA 2-4
TD 0-6
TIC needs to beat TRB and TD with good scores to have a hope for the playoff First place should go to the winner of the last round game between TRUE and OLE. No team is yet sure 100% of a playoff place. Last round game between ITA and White could be decisive for the playoffs.
Group C: 2 upsets (AT over SOS, AT over AMD)
Current Standing
AT 4-0
Red 4-1
SOS 3-1
AMD 2-2
RCMP 1-3
TA 1-4
NGH 0-4
Expected final standing without further upsets according to starting seeding:
SOS 5-1
Red 5-1
AT 5-1
AMD 3-3
TA 2-4
RCMP 1-5
NGH 0-6
The win of SOS with RED gave them the chance to win the group, but everything will be decided in RED-AT. If RED wins the 3 teams will conclude even. If AT wins, then thay should win the group. For the last place in the playoffs AMD needs just to beat with a good score NGH to be practically in.
If the final standings will be the expected ones, then the KO bracket would be (from top to bottom), and please this is just a previewing play, everything off course will be different (I hope ):
Group C=D, Group A=E, Group B=F
1E - UEG
bye
3F - TRUE
3D - AT
2D - Red
bye
2F - TRB
4E - AGT
1F - OLE
bye
2E - CAT
4D - AMD
1D - SOS
bye
3E - TT
4F - White
Hoping to have made all calculations right and.... this is just a preview and everything can change in real events.
Q.
[Updated on: Mon, 19 October 2009 20:07]
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AGT-DN
Posts: 697
Registered:
November 2006
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Sun, 25 October 2009 20:12
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Ranking in dependence on last weeks results:
Group A:
UEG-CAT
AGT-SMP
BH-FIN
UEG
- win --> 1st
- defeat max 0-5 (-8 in games) --> 1st
defeat min 0-5 (-9 in games) --> 2nd
- --> 1st
CAT
win min 5-0 (+9 in games) --> 1st
- win max 5-0 (+8 in games) --> 2nd
- defeat --> 2nd
- -->2nd
TT
SMP
- win --> 4th
- defeat+FIN wins --> 5th
- defeat+BH wins --> 6th
AGT
- win --> 4th
- defeat+FIN wins --> 5th
- defeat+BH wins --> 6th
BH
- win --> 5th
- defeat max 1-4 --> 6th
defeat 0-5 --> 7th
FIN
win 5-0 --> 6th
- win max 4-1 --> 7th
- defeat --> 7th
- --> 7th
Group B:
OLE-TRUE
White-ITA
TIC-TD
OLE
- win --> 1st
- defeat max 1-4 --> 2nd
defeat 0-5 AND other constellation than below --> 3rd
- defeat 0-5 AND White wins 5-0 AND White games won-lost vs ITA is at least better by 28 than OLE games won-lost vs TRUE (such as OLE-TRUE 0-5 (00-15) AND White-ITA 5-0 (15-02)) --> 4th
TRB
- OLE wins --> 2nd
TRUE wins 5-0 --> 2nd
- TRUE wins max 4-1 --> 3rd
TRUE
- win --> 1st
- defeat AND other constellation than below --> 3rd
- defeat AND White wins AND White matches won-lost vs ITA is at least better by 5 than TRUE matches won-lost vs OLE (such as OLE-TRUE 4-1 AND White-ITA 4-1) --> 4th
White
win 5-0 AND TRUE wins 5-0 AND White games won-lost vs ITA is at least better by 28 than OLE games won-lost vs TRUE (such as OLE-TRUE 0-5 (00-15) AND White-ITA 5-0 (15-02)) --> 3rd
- win AND OLE wins AND White matches won-lost vs ITA is at least better by 5 than TRUE matches won-lost vs OLE (such as OLE-TRUE 4-1 AND White-ITA 4-1) --> 3rd
- win AND other constellation than both above --> 4th
- defeat max 2-3 --> 4th
defeat min 1-4 --> 5th
ITA
win min 4-1 --> 4th
- win 3-2 --> 5th
- defeat AND other constellation than both below --> 5th
- defeat AND TIC wins AND TIC matches won-lost vs TD is better by 6 than ITA matches won-lost vs White AND TIC games won-lost vs TD is at least better by 10 than ITA games won-lost vs White (such as TIC-TD 3-2 (10-10) AND White-ITA 5-0 (15-05)) --> 6th
- defeat AND TIC wins AND TIC matches won-lost vs TD is at least better by 7 than ITA matches won-lost vs White (such as TIC-TD 4-1 AND White-ITA 5-0) --> 6th
TIC
- win AND White wins AND TIC matches won-lost vs TD is better by 6 than ITA matches won-lost vs White AND TIC games won-lost vs TD is at least better by 10 than ITA games won-lost vs White (such as TIC-TD 3-2 (10-10) AND White-ITA 5-0 (15-05)) --> 5th
- win AND White wins AND TIC matches won-lost vs TD is at least better by 7 than ITA matches won-lost vs White (such as TIC-TD 4-1 AND White-ITA 5-0) --> 5th
- win AND other constellation than both above --> 6th
- defeat max 2-3 (+0 in games) --> 6th
- defeat min 2-3 (-1 in games) --> 7th
TD
- win min 3-2 (+1 in games) --> 6th
- win max 3-2 (+0 in games) --> 7th
- defeat --> 7th
I hope, all constellations are right and I did not forget any... | ITA_Qorlas schrieb am Mon, 19 October 2009 20:05 |
(in a group like this one? )
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Group C will follow after the last matches of round 6!
[EDIT] Thx Rufuz for simplifying Group B scenario (...a little bit !)
[Updated on: Wed, 28 October 2009 22:48]
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barneyg
Posts: 95
Registered:
December 2008
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AGT-DN
Posts: 697
Registered:
November 2006
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Mon, 26 October 2009 20:04
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| RCMP-barneyg schrieb am Mon, 26 October 2009 19:12 |
Fun stuff DN. Hope I'm not stealing your fun here
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I only had fun watching the scenario for group A - group B was....well "a little" more work, so thank you for completing this overview 
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barneyg
Posts: 95
Registered:
December 2008
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Thu, 29 October 2009 16:05
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Bump -- I have updated group C stuff following the SOS win (now 3-1 against AMD) and TA win (now 3-0 against NGH).
Basically what's left is this -- 2nd and 3rd are still undecided between the Reds and AT: if AT wins 4-1 or 5-0 against RCMP (now it's 1-0), AT finishes 2nd and the Reds 3rd. If anything else happens for them (3-2 win or loss) they finish 3rd and the Reds are 2nd.
5th and 6th are still undecided with TA clearly holding the upper hand on RCMP. For RCMP to finish 5th, we need TA to lose their 2 remaining matchups vs. NGH, AND we need to win our 4 remaining matchups against AT, AND our games won-lost vs. AT needs to be at least 6 better than TA's games won-lost vs. NGH. So far, our games won-lost vs. AT is -2, and theirs against NGH is +5.
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foudecoasters - Cerdon
Posts: 875
Registered:
March 2007
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Fri, 30 October 2009 00:05
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thx for excellent job barney !
merci pour l'excellent travail cher francophone ! 
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Qorlas
Posts: 948
Registered:
January 2008
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Fri, 30 October 2009 00:35
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Things to be settled for the bracket of the playoff:
Best Second placed team:
still in the run:
Red TGV 5-1 19-11
CAT 4-1 17-8 currently 1-2 with UEG --> 18-10
AT 4-1 16-9 currently 1-1 with RCMP --> 17-10
CAT needs to win their last 2 matches with UEG to win 3-2 and almost surely gain the bye for the first round of the playoffs.
Group A:
1° UEG
2° CAT
3° TT
4° AGT or SMP
Group B:
1° OLE or TRUE
2° OLE or TRB
3° TRB or TRUE or White
4° TRUE or White
Group C:
1° SOS
2° AT or Red
3° AT or Red
4° AMD
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Qorlas
Posts: 948
Registered:
January 2008
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Masimo
Posts: 802
Registered:
November 2004
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Fri, 30 October 2009 12:25
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Thank you Qorlas - I was going to find all that out myself, but that is way easier - great help. Pity ITA didn`t quite make it for the playoffs, but I am sure you`ll try again next year with much more experience and then you`ll do it!
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foudecoasters - Cerdon
Posts: 875
Registered:
March 2007
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Qorlas
Posts: 948
Registered:
January 2008
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Qorlas
Posts: 948
Registered:
January 2008
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Elric - Sancerre
Posts: 1317
Registered:
May 2005
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Re:NC - the run for playoffs
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Mon, 02 November 2009 01:23
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| ITA_Qorlas écrit le Sat, 31 October 2009 21:06 |
All the german-speaking team are in the upper half (+ the red)
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Entschuldigung 
Schlaf gut und gute Nacht für alle 
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