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onyx puffin
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Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 13 October 2009 16:25
So, while NC is going on, I have a question for fun discussion.
In a two player match, Which ticket at beginning of game is the least likely to be dropped?

I will go first and submit it to be Pittsburgh to Denver.
I know that to certainly be true in multi, but I think it holds true in 2 player as well since it can combine with more tickets.
Although there is another that in 2 player perhaps is even less dropped. i am interested to hear the opinions.

[Updated on: Tue, 13 October 2009 16:26]

      
Truckerteller
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 13 October 2009 16:45
Sea NY ? (dropped with LA Mia, SF Atl, maybe Win Hou, Dul Hou)
LA Chi ?
Cal Pho ?
      
Truckerteller
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 13 October 2009 16:52
Which single ticket is least likely to get dropped by NC players ?

or

Which single ticket is least likely to get dropped in a 2P game in general ?

or

Which single ticket should be least likely to get dropped ?

or

Which single ticket are you as an NC player least likely to drop ?

[Updated on: Tue, 13 October 2009 16:54]

      
Mr Bean
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 13 October 2009 17:17
I would go for den-elp probably as the ticket i would drop least of all in 2P, be it NC or not.

It combines well with most West coast or middle combinations.
With most rotten combo's, like most East coasts, i would at least consider keeping den-elp and decide maybe during the game to drop it and/or the other ticket i kept.

I would probably need a really good combo like Van-Mon + Se-NY (i don't ask for much, do i Smile ) to make me drop Den-Elp readily.
      
AAA_Angel6
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 13 October 2009 18:17
Van-Mon Wink

I only drop it for 2 big southern ticks Twisted Evil

From all the other opinions I like Den-ElP most, which might be the best ticket overall Smug

[Updated on: Tue, 13 October 2009 18:18]

      
solinsf
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 13 October 2009 18:23
LA-Chi, with Den-El a close second.
      
CAT-pegaso
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 13 October 2009 19:45
Van-Mon or Sea-NY

I disagree with den-el. With such a small west and 2 east, almost always I will take the 2 east.
      
SYN Stephan1972
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Wed, 14 October 2009 00:56
LA-Hel and SSM-OKL haven't been mentioned

but for me probably behind Van-Mon

I don't much like Cal-Pho (too many whites or yellows needed)

[Updated on: Wed, 14 October 2009 00:58]

      
Lucullupus
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  Re:Which ticket least dropped? Wed, 14 October 2009 01:06
No votes for Boston - Miami? Laughing Laughing Mad
      
psteinx
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Fri, 16 October 2009 08:16
Probably Sea-NY or perhaps Van-Mon.

With Sea-NY, I might drop it if I get 2 nice west, possibly with 2 big middle (Winn-Hou, Winn-LR, or Winn-Hou, Den-EP), or LA-Mia with SF-Atl. There's not many others that will make me drop Sea-NY.

Van-Mon doesn't pair as well with Port-Nash, SF-Atl, LA-Chi, Den-Pit and a few others as Sea-NY. If I get Van-Mon, a badly pairing big ticket, and a small ticket, I may just keep the small ticket with Van-Mon and ignore it. But that's less attractive if the ticket you're likely to ignore is 12+ points. (It still may be best, but better obviously to ignore something small.)
      
Gyuri
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Fri, 16 October 2009 08:21
I got recently: la-chi, la-ny, van-mon.

What would you have done?

I dropped van-mon, although it did not make me happy. Rolling Eyes

      
psteinx
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Fri, 16 October 2009 19:40
Here's my quick ranking of and comments on tix by my estimated frequency with which I would likely keep them in a 2 player game against a high rated opponent.


Sea-NY (Great ticket, pairs well with more stuff than Van-Mon.)
Van-Mon (I often try to pair a disposable ticket with this one.)
EP-Dul (Good tix value, good flexibility on routing.)
LA-Helena (Goes well with all the west and decent with many middle. Good alternatives if you don't get 6 black.)
Den-EP (Goes well with a fair number of middle and west tix. Readily disposable.)
Cal-SLC (Relatively easy to complete and integrate provided you get 1 or 2 of yellows, whites, oranges.)
Cal-Pho (Big value. A bit tricky for longest though.)
LA-Sea (Goes well with other west tix. Reasonably flexible route possibilities.)
Por-Pho (Nice value. Solid western ticket.)
LA-Chi (Decent ticket.)
SSM-Ok (Decent ticket.)
Hou-Winn (High value, but not so many tix pair well with it.)
Winn-LR (OK ticket.)
Hou-Dul (OK ticket. Almost as hard to make as Hou-Winn, but worth less. Disposable with Sea-NY or Van-Mon.)
LA-Mia (High value, and normal route has 3 6ers, but hurts if you don't get right colors. Blockable. Few good pairs.)
Van-SF (Worst of the main west tix.)
Por-Nash (Meh.)
Den-Pit (Meh.)
Hou-KC (Pairs well with other 2 Hou tix. Disposable in many other situations.
Chi-SF (Meh.)
Mon-NO (Best of the pure east tix.)
NY-Atl (Goes ok with most east tix. Disposable with some non-east tix.)
SSM-Nash (Low value, bad route.)
Tor-Mia (Meh.)
Mon-Atl (OK if you get a trio of east tix. Not so good otherwise.)
LA-NY (Pretty good for multi. Not so much for 2 player.)
Chi-NO (Bleh.)
SF-Atl (Bleh. Bleh.)
NY-Dal (Bleh. Bleh. Bleh.)
Bos-Mia (Bleeaaaaaaaaaah.)

I spent only a moderate amount of time on this - some rankings may be off a bit.

Edit: I had SSM-LR instead of SSM-Nash - fixed and re-ranked.

[Updated on: Fri, 16 October 2009 23:00]

      
SYN Stephan1972
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 17 October 2009 01:29
Put another way - which pairs of tickets would make you drop Sea-NY, Van-Mon, Den, El Paso, or the other suggestions so far?
      
psteinx
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 17 October 2009 02:08
While I like Sea-NY, there's actually a fair number of things that would make me drop it.

* LA-Mia, SF-Atl
* Possibly several combinations from among LA-Sea, LA-Helena, Port-Pho, Cal-Pho,
* Dul-EP, Winn-Hou
* Possibly some other middle stuff
      
onyx puffin
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 17 October 2009 05:42
Well Stephan, in a match with Angel6 in NC, NY-Sea is what he dropped keeping Port-Nash & La-Chi. BY the way, I was the one who lost and guessed he was going to NY, and blocked him out there. Then he took a southern turn with 4 yellow.
Danger on Sea-NY is blockers, because no one wants someone to get an easy 22 points.
Van-Mon has been easily blocked as well.
      
psteinx
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 17 October 2009 16:48
I'm fairly sure that given a choice of LA-Chi, Port-Nash, Sea-NY, I'd drop LA-Chi and take my chances on getting blocked out of NY.

There's even a small chance I'd keep all 3, dawdle in the west a bit making it look like I had 3 west tix, then make my move east late. Probably not though, that seems like an unnecessarily risky move.
      
~John
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 17 October 2009 17:15
I don't think I have ever not taken NY-Seattle
      
solinsf
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Mon, 19 October 2009 01:59
I don't claim to be as good as many of those who have weighed in here but, to me, Sea-NY is only a so-so ticket. It's not so much that it's blockable (although it is). The bigger issue is that there are not that many tickets with which it combines. Which tickets does it combine with? Van-Mon, obviously. Por-Nash is probably the next best, so long as you're not playing one of those annoying players who begins every game by playing Por-Sea. Van-SF isn't bad. Por-Phe isn't bad (with the same caveat as for Por-Nash). The Calgary and SSM tickets aren't so bad, but they can easily get very messy. Kc-Hou and Den-El, only in the sense that there's little cost if you ignore or don't make them. LA-Hel and Sea-LA are like invitations for the other guy to block you, since they play the same way as the LA-NY, Sea-NY combination. A few of the Eastern tickets work ok I guess, but good luck trying to get longest with an Eastern ticket. La-NY or Chi-NY are great if you can make them, but it's pretty harrowing to try.

Bottom line to me: Sea-NY gets you 22 pts, but it often means missing the other ticket or losing out on longest. I'd much rather have a couple of west-coast tickets that I can complete in 9 or 10 turns. But maybe I'm off base here.
      
AAA_Angel6
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Mon, 19 October 2009 09:43
psteinx schrieb am Sat, 17 October 2009 16:48

I'm fairly sure that given a choice of LA-Chi, Port-Nash, Sea-NY, I'd drop LA-Chi...

In my match vs onyx I took about 3 minutes for this decision.

What I found so interesting about this combination is that all 4 possible choices are sensible in a way. Are there any other combinations where this is arguably true?

As onyx pointed out to me, only in multi the decision is very easy - taking all three Very Happy

[Updated on: Mon, 19 October 2009 10:41]

      
Wildfire2099
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 20 October 2009 18:49
I see good arguements for Sea - NY, Van-Mon, Den-Elp and Den-Pit.. but for me I think it's LA-Chi.

LA-Chi combines with both east and west coast, is very difficult to block, is worth a good amount of points, and has multi routes that go through different sixes. I don't think I've EVER dropped it... maybe if the other two are Sea-NY and Van-Mon, but that's about it.

I agree with whoever posted eariler that Den-ELP generally either is worth keeping since you'll hit it anyway (if west coast, middle, or long routes) and if you have east coast, you might want to not bother and block instead. I'd say for me only really good East coast tickets(like Mon-NO, Mia-Tor perhaps) would cause me to drop Den-ELP.

Very cool topic, btw. It's a shame we can't check statistically, if would be really interesting to see if top rated players keep different ones that newbies and/or ticket fiends do.


      
AAA_Angel6
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 20 October 2009 19:01
AT_Angel6 schrieb am Tue, 13 October 2009 18:17

From all the other opinions I like Den-ElP most, which might be the best ticket overall Smug

Funny I wrote Den-ElP, I meant Dul-ElP might be the best ticket overall! Idea

But in fact, I drop both ElP tickets quite often...
      
psteinx
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 20 October 2009 19:06
Wildfire2099 - I agree that statistical checking would be neat. There's a whole bunch of additional stats that would be nice to have for various statistical analysis - who goes first, how many locos each player has, tickets seen, kept, and made, etc.

I was thinking recently about keeping detailed records of such stuff for my own games for a while to allow such analysis, but doubt I'd be motivated enough to keep it up. Plus, I think I'd need at least 100 games worth and more likely 200 to do at least somewhat interesting analysis. To do ticket vs. ticket analysis*, even more data would be needed.

===

I am surprised you have LA-Chi so high, and that you and onyx both really like Den-EP.

LA-Chi is pretty good, but Chi is not a great endpoint for a route. If you play LA-Pho (or LA-EP-Pho), then 5 white to 4 green to 6 orange to 3 red, you are in a tough spot to get longest. You've already used 5 white and probably don't really want to play 4 white up to Tor. You can forget about the 3 red and simply play 6 pink or go up to the grays, but that makes getting longest hard. And if you don't get 6 black, you will be in a somewhat difficult position on the other end of your route. LA-Chi is a good ticket, but not among the top ones, IMO, either in how often it should be kept or in just how good it is overall (the two issues are related, but not identical).

Den-Pit is not one I've historically liked a whole lot. Maybe I am wrong. I don't like frequently having to play tor-pit, which doesn't really fit along good routes for longest. It's hard to get both 6 orange and 6 gray, and if you only have one of these, building a good Den-Pit route is tricky.

Edit:
More on Den-Pit -
Also, Pit is not really "on the way" for a lot of other good tix I would like to play. The nearby cities with tix for Pit are Tor (Tor-Mia poor fit to Den-Pit), Chi (LA-Chi, Chi-SF are decent partners for Den-Pit), Nash (Port-Nash and SSM-Nash are ok partners), NY (Sea-NY is good partner, LA-NY is ok partner, other NY tix not great fits). So, if I am thinking right, there are perhaps 6 ok to good tix for partners with Den-Pit.

Note that in 4 or 5 player multi, LA-Chi is a very good ticket, IMO, and Den-Pit is somewhat better than it is as a 2 player ticket.

Edit 2:
* Reasonably meaningful/valid ticket vs. ticket analysis, I mean.

[Updated on: Tue, 20 October 2009 19:16]

      
Wildfire2099
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 20 October 2009 19:13
I see what you're saying, but you thinking about only the 'standard' La-Chi route. There are lots of options...

For instance, instead of 5 white, you can do 5 yellow, 4 red. That leaves you a chance maybe at the 6 white, or to use the 4 white to get to the 6 gray.

You're right that stopping at Chi requires a little connection to get to better scoring routes, but you can always go the other way... there's 6 green and 6 red (if you can swing it... 6 green is tough, granted).. there's going up to portand then getting the 6 blue.. or there's the previously mentioned 5 yellow.



Incidently, I too have considered tracking stuff, but I feel like that would be coloring the stats to be style too much. If only DoW would let us re-design that history screen, so it showed what we wanted *dream*
      
psteinx
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Tue, 20 October 2009 19:24
Since I am daydreaming a bit, here are things that would be interesting, if I had a large history of my own games. Assume that all of the following are in reference to 2 player US games.

Win rate going first/second
Win rate when I get/don't get longest
Rate of getting longest versus going first
Win rate vs. number of locos drawn
Win rate vs. various tix kept (i.e. My win rate is likely much higher in games where I get and keep Sea-NY vs. Bos-Mia)
Rate of keeping/dropping various tix
Win rate when tix are missed (would be tricky to distinguish between being blocked and intentionally ignoring tix for various reasons)
Order of 6ers played (oranges first, then grays?)
6ers played, in general (how often are reds left unplayed?)

There are probably others that I could/would think of with a good database.

Edit:
A problem with this is that the smaller the difference you're trying to measure, or the more precise you're trying to get your answer, the more data you'd need.

Consider starting first.

Over 100 games, you'd average about 50 each way.

Let's say that I play players of equal skill to me and that the true, underlying win rate when starting first should be 55% vs. 45% for starting second.

Over 50 games for each scenario, that only translates to 27.5 wins starting first and 22.5 wins starting second.

It would be easy to get a bit lucky or unlucky and actually win MORE games (in that 100 game span) starting 2nd than starting first, or, conversely, to have a great run going first and win far more than 27 or 28 games going first.


[Updated on: Tue, 20 October 2009 20:18]

      
SOJA maunaloa
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sun, 08 November 2009 05:53
Hello psteinx and all,

I have made a quick check with my record and found the following stats:

Quote:


Win rate when I get/don't get longest



<<< Condition >>>
1. USA map, 2p
2. opponent's ELO >= 1500
3. my ELO >= 1500 (after May 3, 2009)
4. in total 801 games

(1) Overall statistics

-----------------------------
LONGEST ....... GAME ........
-----------------------------
....... won ... tied ... lost
-----------------------------
+10 ... 265 ...... 4 ..... 79
+-0 .... 17 ...... 2 ..... 15
-10 ... 120 ...... 9 .... 290
-----------------------------

(2) Winning/losing percentage in each case

-----------------------------
LONGEST ....... GAME ........
-----------------------------
....... won ... tied ... lost
-----------------------------
+10 ... 76% ..... 1% .... 23%
+-0 ... 50% ..... 6% .... 44%
-10 ... 29% ..... 2% .... 69%
-----------------------------

I wanted to check "Win rate going first/second", too, but I couldn't. I regret that I should record going 1st or 2nd
along with the longest and tickets information.
      
psteinx
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sun, 08 November 2009 06:54
Nice stats maunaloa.

If you've got ~800 games of US 2 player games, I'd like to see some analysis of ticket-related stuff - frequency kept for all 30, win rate with each, etc.

      
SOJA maunaloa
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Mon, 09 November 2009 00:54
Hi psteinx and all,

Quote:

If you've got ~800 games of US 2 player games, I'd like to see some analysis of ticket-related stuff - frequency kept for all 30, win rate with each, etc.


Here's ticket by ticket stats.
I found that the best ticket for me was Calgary - Salt Lake City.
I should not drop Ca-SLC from now on Rolling Eyes .


------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------
Ticket .. ........................... WINNING RATE ..........................
------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------
...... .. ....TOTAL.... ... .w/ LONGEST.. ... .w/o LONGEST. ... w/ Missed Tix
------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------
Va-Mo ... 57.9% (44/76) ... 88.0% (22/25) ... 43.1% (22/51) ... 20.0% (01/05)
Se-NY ... 54.2% (52/96) ... 78.6% (22/28) ... 43.7% (28/64) ... 00.0% (00/04)
Po-Na ... 39.4% (26/66) ... 55.6% (15/27) ... 28.9% (11/38) ... 10.0% (01/10)
SF-At ... 44.1% (15/34) ... 80.0% (08/10) ... 31.8% (07/22) ... 00.0% (00/04)
LA-Mi ... 55.8% (29/52) ... 95.5% (21/22) ... 25.9% (07/27) ... 25.0% (01/04)
LA-NY ... 55.4% (31/56) ... 75.0% (18/24) ... 41.9% (13/31) ... 66.7% (04/06)
LA-Chi .. 55.7% (49/88) ... 90.3% (28/31) ... 35.8% (19/53) ... 00.0% (00/06)
Se-LA ... 53.6% (37/69) ... 79.3% (23/29) ... 33.3% (11/33) ... 16.7% (01/06)
He-LA ... 48.5% (32/66) ... 73.5% (25/34) ... 14.3% (04/28) ... 66.7% (04/06)
Po-Pho .. 62.9% (39/62) ... 82.4% (28/34) ... 33.3% (08/24) ... 00.0% (00/03)
Ca-Pho .. 62.5% (45/72) ... 84.8% (28/33) ... 42.1% (16/38) ... 00.0% (00/04)
Ca-SLC .. 71.8% (28/39) ... 87.5% (21/24) ... 46.7% (07/15) ... 25.0% (01/04)
Va-Sa ... 42.9% (33/77) ... 65.6% (21/32) ... 25.0% (11/44) ... 00.0% (00/04)
Du-El ... 60.0% (39/65) ... 74.3% (26/35) ... 38.5% (10/26) ... 16.7% (01/06)
De-El ... 43.8% (32/73) ... 71.1% (27/38) ... 09.4% (03/32) ... 38.5% (05/13)
Wi-Hu ... 53.4% (31/58) ... 80.0% (24/30) ... 23.1% (06/26) ... 00.0% (00/03)
Du-Hu ... 48.3% (28/58) ... 73.3% (22/30) ... 20.0% (05/25) ... 00.0% (00/08)
KC-Hu ... 42.9% (24/56) ... 76.9% (20/26) ... 15.4% (04/26) ... 42.9% (09/21)
Wi-LR ... 50.7% (37/73) ... 85.7% (30/35) ... 16.2% (06/37) ... 66.7% (02/03)
SSM-OC .. 52.5% (32/61) ... 71.9% (23/32) ... 20.0% (05/25) ... 00.0% (00/00)
SSM-Na .. 48.1% (26/54) ... 71.4% (20/28) ... 16.7% (04/24) ... 16.7% (01/06)
De-Pi ... 47.1% (32/68) ... 62.1% (18/29) ... 33.3% (12/36) ... 00.0% (00/06)
Chi-Sa .. 45.2% (19/42) ... 64.3% (09/14) ... 34.6% (09/26) ... 66.7% (02/03)
Chi-NO .. 08.3% (02/24) ... 50.0% (01/02) ... 04.8% (01/21) ... 22.2% (02/09)
To-Mi ... 45.9% (17/37) ... 80.0% (08/10) ... 33.3% (08/24) ... 33.3% (01/03)
Bo-Mi ... 31.6% (06/19) ... 66.7% (02/03) ... 23.1% (03/13) ... 66.7% (02/03)
Mo-NO ... 60.8% (31/51) ... 75.0% (18/24) ... 46.2% (12/26) ... 50.0% (02/04)
Mo-At ... 33.3% (14/42) ... 69.2% (09/13) ... 14.8% (04/27) ... 50.0% (03/06)
NY-At ... 47.2% (17/36) ... 85.7% (12/14) ... 25.0% (05/20) ... 58.8% (10/17)
Da-NY ... 38.7% (12/31) ... 77.8% (07/09) ... 23.8% (05/21) ... 33.3% (02/06)
------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------

      
onyx puffin
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Mon, 09 November 2009 05:00
maunaloa,

Two questions: first: where did the stats come from: how were they derived?
Did you really write all that down each time?


Second: Is that Chi-NO stat correct? Or is there a number missing? 08.3?

[Updated on: Mon, 09 November 2009 05:01]

      
SOJA maunaloa
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Mon, 09 November 2009 06:27
Hi onyx puffin,

Quote:


Two questions: first: where did the stats come from: how were they derived?
Did you really write all that down each time?



Yes, I wrote them down each time. My record goes like this:

091109 1626 -> 1632 win Tx:LA-Mi,Mo-NO(x) +10 Op:1716 2nd
091109 1632 -> 1626 lose Tx:Po-Na,Se-LA +10 Op:1536 1st

I just start recording going 1st/2nd information yesterday.

Quote:


Second: Is that Chi-NO stat correct? Or is there a number missing? 08.3?



My winning percentage with Chi-NO is 8.3% and Chi-NO was the worst ticket for me.
Zero is added to maintain the table format (two or more spaces did not work as spaces).

By the way, I found that I should simply ignore Chi-NO more often like NY-At.
It will increase my winning percentage with Chi-NO for sure.

P.S. I like this thread very much. In my case, De-Pi was not so good
because my winning percentage with De-Pi is less than 50%.
      
SOJA maunaloa
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Re:Which ticket least dropped? Fri, 11 December 2009 16:23
Hi all,

Quote:


Win rate going first/second



I have collected more than 200 games to check the winning rate for going 1st/2nd.
Here's the result. In my case, going 1st seems to be very important.
------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------
| Start |                              WINNING RATE                               |
|----------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------|
|       |      TOTAL       |    w/ LONGEST    |   w/o LONGEST    |  w/ Missed Tix |
|----------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
|  1st  | 65.8% ( 73/ 111) | 72.9% ( 51/  70) | 46.9% ( 15/  32) | 35.3% ( 6/ 17) |
|  2nd  | 35.5% ( 43/ 121) | 71.4% ( 30/  42) | 11.3% (  8/  71) | 10.5% ( 2/ 19) |
|  all  | 50.1% (520/1037) | 75.1% (347/ 462) | 27.5% (144/ 524) | 30.6% (45/147) |
------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------


I think blocking might become more important to win when starting 2nd. I love blocking games, but the problem is
I'm not good at it, yet.

Also, update for the ticket by ticket statisitics (in the CODE environment).
------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------
| Ticket |                           WINNING RATE                           |
|----------------------------------------------------------- ---------------|
|        |     TOTAL      |    w/ LONGEST  | w/o LONGEST    | w/ Missed Tix |
|----------------------------------------------------------- ---------------|
| Va-Mo  | 56.2% (54/ 96) | 87.1% (27/ 31) | 41.9% (26/ 62) | 28.6% ( 2/ 7) |
| Se-NY  | 57.4% (70/122) | 81.0% (34/ 42) | 44.6% (33/ 74) |  0.0% ( 0/ 5) |
| Po-Na  | 39.2% (31/ 79) | 56.2% (18/ 32) | 26.7% (12/ 45) |  9.1% ( 1/11) |
| SF-At  | 46.8% (22/ 47) | 80.0% (12/ 15) | 33.3% (10/ 30) |  0.0% ( 0/ 4) |
| LA-Mi  | 55.9% (33/ 59) | 88.5% (23/ 26) | 30.0% ( 9/ 30) | 25.0% ( 1/ 4) |
| LA-NY  | 50.0% (34/ 68) | 73.1% (19/ 26) | 37.5% (15/ 40) | 57.1% ( 4/ 7) |
| LA-Chi | 52.0% (53/102) | 88.2% (30/ 34) | 31.7% (20/ 63) |  0.0% ( 0/ 6) |
| Se-LA  | 55.7% (49/ 88) | 77.3% (34/ 44) | 30.6% (11/ 36) | 14.3% ( 1/ 7) |
| He-LA  | 48.1% (38/ 79) | 74.4% (29/ 39) | 14.7% ( 5/ 34) | 50.0% ( 4/ 8) |
| Po-Pho | 62.8% (54/ 86) | 80.4% (37/ 46) | 35.3% (12/ 34) |  0.0% ( 0/ 4) |
| Ca-Pho | 61.4% (62/101) | 84.0% (42/ 50) | 36.7% (18/ 49) |  0.0% ( 0/ 8) |
| Ca-SLC | 68.6% (35/ 51) | 83.3% (25/ 30) | 45.0% ( 9/ 20) | 25.0% ( 1/ 4) |
| Va-Sa  | 45.8% (44/ 96) | 67.5% (27/ 40) | 25.0% (13/ 52) | 28.6% ( 2/ 7) |
| Du-El  | 60.9% (53/ 87) | 77.6% (38/ 49) | 33.3% (11/ 33) | 22.2% ( 2/ 9) |
| De-El  | 41.8% (38/ 91) | 67.4% (31/ 46) |  7.7% ( 3/ 39) | 35.3% ( 6/17) |
| Wi-Hu  | 51.8% (43/ 83) | 72.0% (36/ 50) | 19.4% ( 6/ 31) |  0.0% ( 0/ 3) |
| Du-Hu  | 52.6% (40/ 76) | 77.5% (31/ 40) | 21.9% ( 7/ 32) |  0.0% ( 0/10) |
| KC-Hu  | 41.8% (28/ 67) | 75.0% (24/ 32) | 13.3% ( 4/ 30) | 40.0% (10/25) |
| Wi-LR  | 53.1% (51/ 96) | 87.2% (41/ 47) | 15.2% ( 7/ 46) | 50.0% ( 2/ 4) |
| SSM-OC | 50.6% (39/ 77) | 68.4% (26/ 38) | 23.5% ( 8/ 34) |  0.0% ( 0/ 2) |
| SSM-Na | 50.8% (32/ 63) | 72.7% (24/ 33) | 18.5% ( 5/ 27) | 14.3% ( 1/ 7) |
| De-Pi  | 49.5% (45/ 91) | 64.9% (24/ 37) | 33.3% (16/ 48) |  0.0% ( 0/ 7) |
| Chi-Sa | 47.2% (25/ 53) | 56.5% (13/ 23) | 39.3% (11/ 28) | 40.0% ( 2/ 5) |
| Chi-NO | 16.7% ( 6/ 36) | 66.7% ( 4/  6) |  6.9% ( 2/ 29) | 25.0% ( 3/12) |
| To-Mi  | 39.2% (20/ 51) | 60.0% ( 9/ 15) | 31.2% (10/ 32) | 16.7% ( 1/ 6) |
| Bo-Mi  | 28.0% ( 7/ 25) | 50.0% ( 2/  4) | 22.2% ( 4/ 18) | 40.0% ( 2/ 5) |
| Mo-NO  | 52.9% (36/ 68) | 74.2% (23/ 31) | 34.3% (12/ 35) | 50.0% ( 2/ 4) |
| Mo-At  | 37.5% (18/ 48) | 75.0% (12/ 16) | 16.7% ( 5/ 30) | 42.9% ( 3/ 7) |
| NY-At  | 46.9% (23/ 49) | 72.7% (16/ 22) | 25.0% ( 6/ 24) | 56.0% (14/25) |
| Da-NY  | 34.1% (15/ 44) | 76.9% (10/ 13) | 17.2% ( 5/ 29) | 20.0% ( 2/10) |
------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------

      
toutoune - Morgon
Senior Member
T2R Nation Cup 2013 Winner

Posts: 1630
Registered:
March 2005
Re:Which ticket least dropped? Fri, 11 December 2009 22:09
hey, i didn't see that post and had same idea at the same time.

I collected approx 100 of my last games. I wait to go to approx 300 to post my own stats. But only regarding starting, not regarding longest and tickets filled/missed.

With a lot more games, it could be nice also to rate best combos (Van-Mon + Sea-NY i guess ???).

Anyway, very interesting stats, to see that the best and the worst ticket could be none of the usually expected (Sea-NY, La-Chi, Dul-ElP in one side, Bos-Mi on other side) and both at 7 points.

[Updated on: Fri, 11 December 2009 22:18]

      
Wildfire2099
Senior Member

Posts: 654
Registered:
June 2005
Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 12 December 2009 05:24
very cool info!
      
Lucullupus
Senior Member

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July 2008
Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 12 December 2009 14:07
It seems that some of you have a lot of time for statistics... Laughing Laughing Laughing
      
SOJA maunaloa
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Posts: 76
Registered:
March 2009
Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 12 December 2009 14:34
Hi toutoune,

toutoune - Morgon wrote on Fri, 11 December 2009 11:09


I collected approx 100 of my last games. I wait to go to approx 300 to post my own stats. But only regarding starting, not regarding longest and tickets filled/missed.



I'd love to see your stats. Please post it as soon as possible. I think I can learn how to improve my games from the difference between top players like you and myself.

toutoune - Morgon wrote on Fri, 11 December 2009 11:09


With a lot more games, it could be nice also to rate best combos (Van-Mon + Sea-NY i guess ???).



I remember I lost 2 games with Va-Mo + Se-NY combo. I am not good at hiding the big north tickets. So I assume winning rate with Se-NY and/or Va-Mo for top players would be much higher than mine.

toutoune - Morgon wrote on Fri, 11 December 2009 11:09


Anyway, very interesting stats, to see that the best and the worst ticket could be none of the usually expected (Sea-NY, La-Chi, Dul-ElP in one side, Bos-Mi on other side) and both at 7 points.



Yes, but please note that I often drop Ca-SLC because total number of games with Ca-SLC is about 50 while 100 games are expected to start with each ticket (3/30 = 10% and in total 1000 games). Chances are that I took Ca-SLC only when I got other tickets which combines very well (for example, Se-NY, Va-Mo, Ca-Pho).
      
barneyg
Member

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Posts: 95
Registered:
December 2008
Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 12 December 2009 16:01
I had actually started something similar with NC when this discussion first started (and before maunaloa posted these great stats). Based on round robin NC screenshots on ticki, I have compiled the win rate for starting 1st/2nd, for the higher rated (ELO) player vs. lower, and win rate for each ticket. Obviously the tickets for the higher rated player are always directly on the screenshots, while those for the lower rated player were either added on the JPG by those who took the capture, or I could figure them out by watching possible ticket combinations for the final score. In all I have 99% of the tix for the higher rated player, about 90% for the lower rated, and there are screenshots for about 60-70% of all RR games.

This is all a bit ad hoc so I didn't gather data for ticket combos (which I should have), nor do I have data for longest. Here are the results:

WIN RATE 1ST/2ND:
Starting 1st: 60% (398-274-10)
Starting 2nd: 40%
Higher rated player, starting first: 70% (238-102-5)
Higher rated player, starting second: 50% (162-160-5)

WIN RATE BY NUMBER OF TICKETS
(just to confirm that players draw a 3rd ticket in a losing cause)
With 2 tickets at end of the game: 54% (639-538-15)
With 3 tickets at end of the game: 30% (67-160-2)
With 4 or more: 39% (13-21-1)

TICKETS MOST OFTEN KEPT (REGARDLESS OF WINNING RATE)
DUL-ELP 141 games, CGY-SLC 138, HEL-LA 136, DEN-PIT 129, DEN-ELP 124, LA-CHI 124, SEA-NY 118, VAN-MON 116, LA-MIA 114, DUL-HOU 112

TICKETS LEAST OFTEN KEPT
BOS-MIA 30, DAL-NY 48, MON-ATL 58, NY-ATL 72, TOR-MIA 76, MON-NO 77, CHI-NO 81, SSM-NAS 88, SF-ATL 93, VAN-SFE 96, WIN-HOU 97

TICKETS WITH HIGHEST WINNING RATE
CGY-PHO 66%, SEA-NY 62%, SEA-LA 62%, LA-CHI 61%, POR-PHO 60%, WIN-LR 60%, VAN-MON 60%, LA-MIA 57%, WIN-HOU 57%, HEL-LA 57%

TICKETS WITH LOWEST WINNING RATE
BOS-MIA 23%, NY-ATL 30%, DAL-NY 30%, MON-NO 36%, CHI-SFE 37%, MON-ATL 37%, CHI-NO 38%, KC-HOU 39%, TOR-MIA 39%, SF-ATL 43%, SSM-NAS 44%

Interesting stuff I think, more analysis to come?
      
SOJA maunaloa
Member

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Posts: 76
Registered:
March 2009
Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 06 February 2010 14:49
Hi barneyg and all,

It might be too late, but I'd like to make some comments on barneyg's
very interesting stats. Time flies ... sorry for late response.

(1) Lower rated player can win 50% when going 1st:
I did not see my record in this way, and it is very nice point of view.
50% winning percentage against higher ranked player is encouraging.

(2) NC players sometimes drop Sea-NY:
The difference between 141 (Dul-Elp) and 118 (Sea-NY) might not be significant,
but it is very interesting if NC players often drop Sea-NY.
I think I will drop Se-NY only when I get LA-Mia+SF-Atl or Win-Hou+Dul-Hou at
the same time (same as Truckerteller). I would like to know other ticket
combinations which let them drop Sea-NY.

(3) Win-Hou is not popular among NC players:
I am surprised that Win-Hou is listed in the TICKETS LEAST OFTEN KEPT category.
I like Win-Hou very much, and I prefer Win-Hou to Dul-Hou mainly because of ticket
points. I think Dul-Hou is better combined with big Southern tickets than Win-Hou,
but this is the only case for me. In most cases, I would connect to Winnipeg anyway
with those middle tickets.

Also, I am really waiting for toutoune's result.
      
Mr Bean
Senior Member

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May 2006
Re:Which ticket least dropped? Sat, 06 February 2010 16:30
maunaloa wrote on Sat, 06 February 2010 14:49


(2) NC players sometimes drop Sea-NY:
I think I will drop Se-NY only when I get LA-Mia+SF-Atl or Win-Hou+Dul-Hou at
the same time (same as Truckerteller). I would like to know other ticket combinations which let them drop Sea-NY.

(3) Win-Hou is not popular among NC players:
I am surprised that Win-Hou is listed in the TICKETS LEAST OFTEN KEPT category.
I like Win-Hou very much, and I prefer Win-Hou to Dul-Hou mainly because of ticketpoints. I think Dul-Hou is better combined with big Southern tickets than Win-Hou, but this is the only case for me. In most cases, I would connect to Winnipeg anyway with those middle tickets.



(2) Without too much thinking i would say LA-Chi with quite a lot of other Western or Middle tix would make me drop Se-NY, but probably some Western combo's too: Cal-Pho + LA-Hel etc.

(3) I think the problem with Winn-Hou & Dul-Hou is that you need 10 green a lot of the time. Dul-Hou is less points, so it's less minus points (than Winn-Hou) if you don't make it. That might be (part of) the reason.
      
barneyg
Member

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Posts: 95
Registered:
December 2008
Re:Which ticket least dropped? Wed, 10 February 2010 18:22
LOL Mr Bean écrit le Sat, 06 February 2010 10:30


(3) I think the problem with Winn-Hou & Dul-Hou is that you need 10 green a lot of the time. Dul-Hou is less points, so it's less minus points (than Winn-Hou) if you don't make it. That might be (part of) the reason.


After watching a lot of NC games this year (and looking at all those RR screenshots) it seems that a lot of players try to keep it as simple as they can when they are under NC pressure. -8 can be swallowed when one needs to but -12 may be unbearable. This may also explain the overwhelming popularity of CAL-SLC (as opposed to VAN-SFE for example).

As for WIN-HOU, I agree that colors are the problem. Most games you won't be able to grab both 6 orange and 6 multi, so then to connect WIN you either need (a) 4 black but then you lose out on the 6 black, (b) 4 blue but then you lose either 6 blue or stretch for the other 4 blue to Chicago, (c) 6 white + 6 yellow but then you need 11 white or 11 yellow to get to Houston, (d) 6 white + 4 multi to CAL which is an easier block.

However, combos might be telling a better story here, but I missed that story because I didn't organize my data with combos, just individual tickets. It may just be that tickets like SSM-OKC or DUL-ELP just happened to show up more often with DUL-HOU than with WIN-HOU.
      
    
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