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stevens
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Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Mon, 29 March 2010 16:25
From time to time players mention that they want to play a "balanced" scenario.
The historical nature of Memoir 44 scenarios creates a natural imbalance in most scenarios. However, a few years ago someone took the time to go through all the scenarios and list the odds of winning based on the Dow Memoir 44 Official Scenario After Action Reports (AAR).

Well I decided it was time for an update and this morning I did the same thing. The limiting factor for me was that I would not list a scenario where one of the opponents apparently had won more than 60% of the battles. I also tried to try to only use the odds for those games which had had at least 100 games played. There are a few exceptions, but you will find the list relatively short even though there are 20 pages of official scenarios listed by DOW.

You will find this list on my USER PAGE under MY PROJECTS listed as "Scenario Odds".
Use it and enjoy!

[Updated on: Mon, 29 March 2010 16:26]

      
stevens
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Mon, 29 March 2010 16:39
Every time I try to upload this document to my user page the system keeps trying to change it to a PDF file and then it becomes gobbledygook. I will keep working on this and hopefully have an answer from DOW and you folks can have the file.

Sorry for the electronic issues...
Embarassed Embarassed
      
ad79
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Mon, 29 March 2010 16:42
Can't you turn it into a pdf yourself and upload the pdf?

Looking forward to seeing the document.

Stig Morten
      
stevens
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Mon, 29 March 2010 17:00
Ok yes that is what I had to do.. all ready now.

Have fun!
      
rasmussen81
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Mon, 29 March 2010 17:25
Great work, Stevens. That will be a very useful document for many players who want to play more balanced scenarios. I will be able to use it to find battles that will allow my students to have an even chance of winning (though they don't seem to care very much if the balance it off as long as they get to play).

Thanks for sharing your efforts! Cool
      
nemesszili
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Mon, 29 March 2010 20:26
I always have been devoted to balance issues, so I can say nothing else, but a huge THANKS! Very Happy

There's only one thing I miss: balanced OL scenarios.
      
ad79
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Mon, 29 March 2010 22:05
nemesszili wrote on Mon, 29 March 2010 20:26

I always have been devoted to balance issues, so I can say nothing else, but a huge THANKS! Very Happy

There's only one thing I miss: balanced OL scenarios.


I think there are balanced overlord scenarios.
If we take the 60:40 win percentage of Stevens as a guideline, but lower the number of games needed, because Overlord has fewer plays we end up with 6 Overlord scenarios that qualify.

Scenario name: Number of plays: Axis win percentage
Bastogne Overlord: 72: 56%
Operation Market Garden: 71 : 45%
Prokorovka Overlord: 68: 57%
Peleliu Landings overlord: 56 : 54%
Cadets of Saumur: 34: 41%
Rzhev Overlord: 14 : 50% (This one is streching it a bit with only 14 plays, but the 50% looks very good.)

And Sword of Stalingrad has the Germans at 61% wins after 23 plays.

So out of the 13 official overlord scenarios, 6 balanced isn't bad. but only two of those are from the battlemaps. The rest require two basegames, Eastern Front for two and Pacific Theater for one of them.

Stig Morten
      
Freeloading Phill
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Tue, 30 March 2010 06:40
stevens wrote

Well I decided it was time for an update and this morning I did the same thing. The limiting factor for me was that I would not list a scenario where one of the opponents apparently had won more than 60% of the battles. I also tried to try to only use the odds for those games which had had at least 100 games played. There are a few exceptions, but you will find the list relatively short even though there are 20 pages of official scenarios listed by DOW.


Interesting, and thanks for the hard work.

How many of the 200 scenarios qualified?
I count 54 with 100+ plays, but see that 3 of the balanced ones are under 100 so I'm wondering how many others below 100 were included and get an adea of the percentage of "unbalanced" scenarios.

I'd be interested in seeing how many fall within the 30-70 range. And also to see how the medal counts match up to see if some are usually close or always blowouts.

Phill
      
ad79
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Tue, 30 March 2010 09:23
PhillWebb wrote on Tue, 30 March 2010 06:40

stevens wrote

Well I decided it was time for an update and this morning I did the same thing. The limiting factor for me was that I would not list a scenario where one of the opponents apparently had won more than 60% of the battles. I also tried to try to only use the odds for those games which had had at least 100 games played. There are a few exceptions, but you will find the list relatively short even though there are 20 pages of official scenarios listed by DOW.


Interesting, and thanks for the hard work.

How many of the 200 scenarios qualified?
I count 54 with 100+ plays, but see that 3 of the balanced ones are under 100 so I'm wondering how many others below 100 were included and get an adea of the percentage of "unbalanced" scenarios.

I'd be interested in seeing how many fall within the 30-70 range. And also to see how the medal counts match up to see if some are usually close or always blowouts.

Phill


I looked at St. With: Ardennes which has a 50:50 win percentage.
397 plays and 101 of those have been 6:5 victories for either side. Over 25% of the plays are won by a single medal.
I think you can call that pretty balanced.

Stig Morten
      
tank commander
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Re:Scenario Odds / Balanced Scenarios Thu, 01 April 2010 11:48
Nice work - and thank you for putting that time in for the beneifit of others. Smile
      
    
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