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TheBigEik
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Realistic odds?? Wed, 22 December 2010 00:45
I kept track of my last 20 battles... In 15 of them I had a hit rate below 40%, varying from 22% to 38%. My opponents had somewhere between 35% and 79%.. I am sorry to say, but should this not be impossible??

I was wondering if this has to do with me buying 1000 ingots..?? It could be a commercial trick to give the people who haven't bought ingots an advantage over achieved customers..

I must say this is totally dissatisfying and kills all the fun of playing this game!

So wo is interested in an account with 963 ingots?? Twisted Evil FOR FREE!
      
TheBigEik
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Re:Realistic odds?? Wed, 22 December 2010 00:47
Sorry... 954 ingots! After two new dramatic battles !!
      
Yann
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Re:Realistic odds?? Wed, 22 December 2010 00:57
TheBigEik wrote on Wed, 22 December 2010 00:45

I was wondering if this has to do with me buying 1000 ingots..?? It could be a commercial trick to give the people who haven't bought ingots an advantage over achieved customers..
Don't believe in dark plot theories - they are often wrong, like here! Rolling Eyes

20 games is way too small a sample to perform any statistically valid computations. Come back with 1,000 games under your belt, and then we can talk. Also, you should collect the number of times each dice face comes up, not the number of hits. Hit ratios are highly variable, depending on the context of the attack. Conditional probabilities can become quickly complicated.

Yann
      
Caboose
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Re:Realistic odds?? Wed, 22 December 2010 01:08
Yann, it is possible to keep track of that info in service records i.e. # of hits on infantry, armor and artillery individual totals?? Just curious.
      
Randwulf
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Re:Realistic odds?? Wed, 22 December 2010 01:13
You have a 3 in 6 chance of hitting an infantry, that is 50%. You have a 2 in 6 chance of hitting a tank, that is 33.33333% If you are always throwing dice at tanks, you will have a lower hit rate that throwing at infantry.

In one game I had a 16% hit rate and the only targets were infantry... That is way below average. But I have also killed 6 tanks with a hit rate of 78% blow out game, caught the tanks on the back row...

But if you REALLY believe the odds are screwy and the game is plotting against you, I will gladly give your accnt to my stepson if you want to toss it.
      
Yann
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Re:Realistic odds?? Wed, 22 December 2010 01:28
Caboose wrote on Wed, 22 December 2010 01:08

Yann, it is possible to keep track of that info in service records i.e. # of hits on infantry, armor and artillery individual totals?? Just curious.

No we do not cumulate these stats at the player level.

Yann
      
TheBigEik
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 00:13
Well... my first game today:

26% hit rate for me vs 58% for opponent

A good start I might say!

I will start keeping track here..

[Updated on: Thu, 23 December 2010 00:14]

      
TheBigEik
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 00:28
Well... in fact it is always crucial dice that go wrong!
      
Phread
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 00:32
Yann wrote on Wed, 22 December 2010 14:13

Caboose wrote on Wed, 22 December 2010 01:08

Yann, it is possible to keep track of that info in service records i.e. # of hits on infantry, armor and artillery individual totals?? Just curious.

No we do not cumulate these stats at the player level.

Yann


Does DoW keep die rolling statistics for the M44 online?
If it does then, by now, these should be statistically significant and could be published. (If it does not can it explain why not?)

As a software developer I know how hard it is to write a truly randon random-munber generator, but by not there should be enough dice rolled online to test the algorithm.

We know the averages should be Infantry 2/6 and 1/3 for the rest. Can Dow put our minds at ease and confirm their die rolling stats?

      
Brummbar44
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 01:21
I just wish you would turn the Brummbar Bad Luck filter off! LOL!

Seriously, I've had bad dice in the board version but nothing like the online. I've had a consistent losing streak where my dice always fail at a critical moment yet my opponent gets astronomical hits! (just finished a game that I had in hand until my opponent wipped out 3 full strength tank units with 3 attacks...which, I'll note, my ambush never did trigger).

I'm at the point where playing online is now just plain frustrating. I don't enjoy losing to the dice every game.

Taking a break.
      
Oros
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 02:46
Luck is hard to say.

Sometimes you just got the whole world's bad luck coming to you.

For example, a Barrage against a 1-figure infantry unit, all missed. And in the next turn, a BEL rolling 3 dices against the same unit, all missed again.

We will get a little unhappy, because these dices are not been rolled by our hands in real, so we might thought:
"If it's rolled by me, I won't get that situation this time."

But I won't think "If I bought the Major Pack, I'll get some extra luck or lose some." It doesn't make any sense.

All we can do and the only thing we have to do is keep playing and enjoying, right?

[Updated on: Thu, 23 December 2010 02:47]

      
Randwulf
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 03:17
Well Malcolm...

Sometimes you get the Bear, and sometimes the Bear gets you...

I fought my way to just shy of 1700 points only to lose 100+ of them to a lucky couple of guys that didn't swap????

Go fig.

I only play for fun, and yeah sometimes it's not much fun to lose when you can't hit anything and your opponent can't miss.

But don't go away, we would miss you.




      
Philoo
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 18:41
Brummbar44 écrit le Thu, 23 December 2010 01:21


Seriously, I've had bad dice in the board version but nothing like the online. [...]

Taking a break.



If Brummbar complains on M44 OL dice rolls, I feel a bit understanding.

I scored amazing bad luck rolls (33% stars, 25 % flags, Infantry under 20%,etc.). It happens so often I think there's something wrong.

I feel less frustrated with boardgame, even if I loose.

And I don't want to speak about the number of points lost...

[Updated on: Thu, 23 December 2010 18:44]

      
Randwulf
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 20:13
At the end of a tabletop game, we don't see a list of what we threw... we just knew our dice sucked, or instead of shooting the Tanks we should have shot at the Infantry... Or we threw so many flags you would think a parade was going by. But online we have a Game stat report.

And we play much fewer table top games... The online is so fast to play, really, 10 min+ to set up a game, of course you swap sides, maybe several times depending on the number of tiles you need to set up. But with this, setup is instant. So we are playing more games quicker.

We as humans tend to remember hard times more easy than good ones. That is just part of how our minds remember stuff. Old leftover learning survival trait from when we wore furs and hunted with sticks.

So we remember the bad rolls, and the hard games. We tend to forget the really good rolls, but we do remember the really good games.

So think about it, what caused the really good game???

Your bad game was someone's good game.

The Dice really do average out.




      
stevens
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 21:09
I always think that the bad games were due to bad dice luck and poor cards.

And all the blowout victories are, of course, my SUPERIOR skill.
Laughing

I think Sam said something like:
"if you don't like the randomness of luck and dice, play CHESS".

I agree with Randwulf. Time evens all these things out. Having a spate of bad dice is just part of the randomness of dice.

Check out my signature line...

[Updated on: Thu, 23 December 2010 21:13]

      
sam1812
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 23 December 2010 23:37
Stevens, thanks for the quote, but I try to inflect it a little more positively: "If we're not content to live with the luck of the dice, we should be playing chess."

I've seen a fair number of things happen in M-Online that seemed to defy probability. Of course, if there are enough such things, and if you play enough games, as Randwulf said, you'll see some of them. And I agree, they're more memorable than the average sequences of die rolls that are so much more common.

At the same time, though, I've had a feeling that the dice are streakier than if they were truly random. Unfortunately, I'm not enough of a statistician to prove whether or not that's true. (Yann has said that the randomization is proper. I'll reserve the right to both believe him and be respectfully skeptical at the same time.)

But if you look at the stats at the end of the game, you can get a little feel for certain things. The odds of hitting an infantry (assuming there are no Air Power stars or blocked retreats) is 50% on each die. For all you math geeks and spreadsheet freaks, if you roll "N" dice against infantry and you roll "R" INFs or GREs, the probability of rolling that many hits out of that many dice is COMBIN(N,R)/(2^N). So you can see how great or awful your luck was. (The formula for armor or artillery is a little messier.)

For example, if you roll 36 dice against infantry and got 12 INFs and GREs, for a pretty bad 33% hit rate, the odds of that happening are 1 in 55.

[Edit:] Clearly, I have too much time on my hands. I should be playing more Memoir.

[Updated on: Fri, 24 December 2010 02:06]

      
stevens
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Re:Realistic odds?? Fri, 24 December 2010 03:51
Dear Sam,
No disrespect meant to you or your quote. I just remember your admonition to take the wins with the losses as part of play of this particular style of game.
I assure you I am not focused enough to play chess and I need the luck factor as much as anyone.

I think the longer you play Memoir the more you realize that although chance is a factor, thoughtfulness in card play and the movement and the positioning of your troops will maximize your dice throwing opportunities. He who throws the most dice will on the average have a distinct advantage.

I'm always with you on just having fun. If it wasn't fun, I would have quit a long time ago. Thanks always for patiently helping me see this when I was frustrated with my inability to coordinate my effort.
Smile

[Updated on: Fri, 24 December 2010 04:30]

      
Yann
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Re:Realistic odds?? Fri, 24 December 2010 13:20
Hello everyone:

Again, be careful about perception of dice rolls. It is always difficult to overcome frustration and emotion when you are doing a critical roll and get a terrible result, even with lots of dice. Yes, this happens. Everyday. Twisted Evil

The new thing brought by Memoir '44 Online is that you probably never played so many games in such a short time period. Which means you rolled tons of dice. Which means that you had more chances to encounter exceptional situations, and be marked by them. It's all probabilities and psychology.

This being said, I agree it would probably be useful to collect dice stats at the server level and display them on the Web site. This way, everybody would be able to see how the actual numbers compare to the theory, and be more comfortable with our random generator. We'll see how we can do this in the next release.

Yann
      
SlotraceDK
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Re:Realistic odds?? Fri, 24 December 2010 14:17
TheBigEik wrote on Thu, 23 December 2010 00:28

Well... in fact it is always crucial dice that go wrong!


I have had the exact same feeling for tens games in a row!
Each time I just needed one kill to win, I missed and lost the game!! Mad
      
SlotraceDK
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Re:Realistic odds?? Fri, 24 December 2010 14:21
Brummbar44 wrote on Thu, 23 December 2010 01:21

I just wish you would turn the Brummbar Bad Luck filter off! LOL!

Seriously, I've had bad dice in the board version but nothing like the online. I've had a consistent losing streak where my dice always fail at a critical moment yet my opponent gets astronomical hits! (just finished a game that I had in hand until my opponent wipped out 3 full strength tank units with 3 attacks...which, I'll note, my ambush never did trigger).

I'm at the point where playing online is now just plain frustrating. I don't enjoy losing to the dice every game.

Taking a break.


Just my words!!!
With a boardgame at least you can shake the dice one more time or throw them in a different way - just in case it might break the deadlock. But here online there is nothing you can do about it than getting more frustated!!!
Not even with the Vassal version have I had suchs bad dice rolls!!!
      
SlotraceDK
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Re:Realistic odds?? Fri, 24 December 2010 14:24
Randwulf wrote on Thu, 23 December 2010 20:13


We as humans tend to remember hard times more easy than good ones. That is just part of how our minds remember stuff. Old leftover learning survival trait from when we wore furs and hunted with sticks.

So we remember the bad rolls, and the hard games. We tend to forget the really good rolls, but we do remember the really good games.

So think about it, what caused the really good game???

Your bad game was someone's good game.

The Dice really do average out.


It is said to take 11 good times to wipe out 1 bad time in your mind!
Guess we're all filled up with bad times in our mind then! Shocked
      
sam1812
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Re:Realistic odds?? Fri, 24 December 2010 15:01
Yann wrote on Fri, 24 December 2010 07:20

This being said, I agree it would probably be useful to collect dice stats at the server level and display them on the Web site. This way, everybody would be able to see how the actual numbers compare to the theory, and be more comfortable with our random generator. We'll see how we can do this in the next release.

Yann, I agree with everything you say in your post.

In addition, it would be valuable to take the dice stats a step further than just the totals. The sequence IIIIII GGGGGG SSSSSS IIIIII FFFFFF TTTTTT would have perfectly balanced totals, but such clumpy rolls would be extraordinarily unusual.

I know that there are standard statistical tests for randomness, and there are computerized tools to implement them (though I don't know the details). Running one of those diagnostics would reassure everybody who's wanted to curse the dice.
      
Phread
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Re:Realistic odds?? Sat, 25 December 2010 21:42
Yann wrote on Sat, 25 December 2010 02:05

Hello everyone:
....
This being said, I agree it would probably be useful to collect dice stats at the server level and display them on the Web site. This way, everybody would be able to see how the actual numbers compare to the theory, and be more comfortable with our random generator. We'll see how we can do this in the next release.

Yann


Thanks for your helpful comments Yann.

Displaying the stats is what I have suggested and may help us see that the rolls are - on average - fair.

DoW's willingness to consider reasonable requests is outstanding.
Keep up the good work.
      
Randwulf
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Re:Realistic odds?? Sun, 26 December 2010 02:53
6 to 4 and then 6 to 0... sorry Phread. Really good cards and really really good dice... sometimes the dice and cards are cruel, but just remember that 4 stars I threw...

      
Phread
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Re:Realistic odds?? Sun, 26 December 2010 06:43
The worst turn I've had today was rolling 5 flags from 5 dice rolls, odds of 1/(6^5) or 1 in 7776. I'm not complaining as these things will happen.

Publishing the cumulative statistics for each die roll may give us confidence in the die rolling algorithm in th game. A good algorithm should approximate the expected averages.

      
Yann
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Re:Realistic odds?? Sun, 26 December 2010 22:42
Dear Officers:

I made a scan of the logs of over 55,000 games played recently. This makes a total of 4,132,984 dice rolls. A pretty solid number for stats. Here are the results:
          # of times                   deviation from
            rolled       actual %     statistical avg
--------  ----------   ------------   ---------------    
infantry   1,378,907   0.3336347298	 0.0003013964
armor        688,136   0.1664985879	-0.0001680787
grenade      687,720   0.1663979343	-0.0002687324
flag         689,031   0.1667151385	 0.0000484718
star         689,190   0.1667536095	 0.0000869428
--------  ----------   ------------   ---------------
Total      4,132,984   1,0000000000	 2.775558E-17


I remind you that the theorical statistical value is 1/6=0.16666666... for all symbols, except for infantry which is 1/3=0.33333333...

As you can see, it works pretty well!

Yann Cool

[Updated on: Sun, 26 December 2010 22:42]

      
Phread
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Re:Realistic odds?? Mon, 27 December 2010 00:50
Thank you Yann.

These are the sort of numbers I hoped you would publish..

      
Randwulf
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Re:Realistic odds?? Mon, 27 December 2010 02:30
Law of averages.... Looks pretty average, Thanks Yann

I have thrown bad dice, and I have thrown fantastic dice...

It all averages out...


Now if I can just throw good dice and let the other guy throw bad dice to average it out.
      
Nightrain
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Re:Realistic odds?? Mon, 27 December 2010 03:18
Randwulf wrote on Mon, 27 December 2010 08:30

Law of averages.... Looks pretty average, Thanks Yann

I have thrown bad dice, and I have thrown fantastic dice...

It all averages out...


Now if I can just throw good dice and let the other guy throw bad dice to average it out.


that's a good one rand Very Happy
      
Phread
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Re:Realistic odds?? Mon, 27 December 2010 04:00
Randwulf wrote on Mon, 27 December 2010 15:15

Law of averages.... Looks pretty average, Thanks Yann

I have thrown bad dice, and I have thrown fantastic dice...

It all averages out...


Now if I can just throw good dice and let the other guy throw bad dice to average it out.


You've had your turn Randwulf - against me the other day when you kicked my butt. I had rolled rubbish, your rolled hits.

My turn will come, perhaps it did versus Captain Stevens.
      
Pankake
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Re:Realistic odds?? Mon, 27 December 2010 09:12
Just started playing but like TheBigElk I'm smelling something funny here. I'm 6-3 total so far but in EVERY one of those 9 matches I've been way behind the AI in hit percentage. I understand that it's harder to hit tanks but that doesn't begin to make up for the discrepancy.

Until I hear that the stats above include games against AI I will believe that a 15-20% edge is written into the game. Actually, I still will believe that. There's no way the AI can lead in every category every time (total kills, tank kills AND infantry kills). Makes no sense.

Ultimately you can still overcome the disadvantage by playing very defensively, protecting injured units and grouping your forces for strong counterattacks when the enemy charges in, so I am enjoying the game anyway; I just don't see why the AI needs an advantage. It's moves are sound. If it's supposed to be a more challenging scenario just give it more units. The cheating is distasteful.
      
stevens
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Re:Realistic odds?? Mon, 27 December 2010 13:28
It is way to easy to blame possible poor tactical play on cheating. However, the results shown above show you that the dice are hitting on average as they should.

If you are a new player you will have a hard time against the AI.

In time you will improve. Your current strategy is probably too agressive and opens you up for more dice throws against open units. The more dice I throw the better my odds of getting a hit.

Play a little more defensively, protect your wounded units and maximize your dice throws against single units to get more kills.

I promise you, when I started playing against skilled players three years ago, I thought I could do nothing right. In time I began to see the tactitcal advantage of taking more time and planning several moves in advance. If you are simply JUST playing your current best card you will lose more often than not. Keep playing the AI it will improve your game.


[Updated on: Mon, 27 December 2010 13:44]

      
GoboGobo
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Re:Realistic odds?? Mon, 27 December 2010 13:38
I have to say that I too have seen some incredible dice combinations. My opponent throwing a Their Finest Hour with 6 dice only to be able to order exactly 0 units (and he did have tanks).

But I guess that it is a combination of being able to play way more games than in a tabletop situation, combined with the fact that this is a beta, it's all new and we're all a bit more critical.

On top of that, the human mind also has the very good skill of picking up on things that are not as expected, and tends to forget expected things very quickly.

Concluding I think our criticism of the dice roll are just to be expected Very Happy
      
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Re:Realistic odds?? Mon, 27 December 2010 14:24
Pankake wrote on Mon, 27 December 2010 09:12

Until I hear that the stats above include games against AI

They do include games played against the AI.

Quote:

I will believe that a 15-20% edge is written into the game. Actually, I still will believe that.
Sorry, you are plain wrong here.

Guys, the AI is an automated "client" that uses the exact same network protocol as your own "graphic" client. It does not have access to less or more information than *you*.

In all our online games, we have used a "paranoid protocol" philosophy to avoid cheating. To put it simply, the server does not trust the clients. For example, there is no way someone could hack the game to see the opponent's cards, simply because the server does not transmit this information. Likewise, dice rolls cannot be cheated, because they are rolled by the server - not the clients. Etc.

As I said, Johnny is just another client as far as the server is concerned, and therefore subject to the same protections. There is no way Johnny can cheat.

Just keep one thing in mind: since Johnny is a program, it is just damned better than you to compute odds and maximize his "return on investment" when rolling dice. You can trust Johnny to roll the dice that will always bring the best hit ratios.

So as Stevens suggested, you should play a bit more games. Memoir '44 is a more challenging game that it seems at first Wink This is what makes it so interesting!

Have fun!

Yann
      
caroper
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Re:Realistic odds?? Tue, 28 December 2010 14:24
There are two problems inherent in any Pseudo random number generator. The first being Statistical distribution over a large number of samples, which in this case the figures show is not a problem. The second, however, could be the cause of the perceived loading of the dice, that is Periodicity, the maximum length of the sequence before it begins to repeat. Could it be that it tends to get stuck in a sequence, rolling one type of result for a while then moves on to the next sequence?
Perhaps the algorithm needs to be reseeded more frequently or a different seed used, but again only time and a large sample of data would show that.
      
mfnevels
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 30 December 2010 13:19
You can always go back to the Board Game Smile

But seriously, IRL bad dice are as frustrating as in the Online variant. I suffer a lot myself - I'm becoming very good at throwing flags. But then again, it's a game of luck and bad dice are part of that.
      
stevens
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 30 December 2010 14:13
Yes, there is luck involved in Memoir'44.

But, you will find that those players who plan ahead, protect their damaged units, take cover when possible, and maximize their dice tosses will win the majority of games.

[Updated on: Thu, 30 December 2010 14:14]

      
Randwulf
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Re:Realistic odds?? Thu, 30 December 2010 16:29
Being an old old school gamer... Not one of those video twitches, I have lots of dice. I have studied the little buggers, and they have quirks. Gamers and dice have a strange relationship.

And a quirk of probability statistics is that randomness is random.

I am throwing dice at a tank unit, I roll 2 tanks and a star. I am going to hit it again with another unit, I switch dice. Why???

I have the exact same chance mathematically of rolling a tank to hit as I did before. But probability says the same die will not roll the same side again. I have more of a chance of rolling a different side of the die. If the dice missed, I will use them again, but if they hit, I change them out.

The online game uses Math to be random. So your probability is just a little different.

In real life, I win about 65-70%, online about 55-60% so far.

Now if Sam would just quit touching my virtual dice I might roll better... Razz
      
sam1812
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Re:Realistic odds?? Fri, 31 December 2010 00:56
So, Randwulf, you want "Live and let dice?" Smile

Yann, any chance of running a statistical randomness test beyond just those very nice overall totals?
      
Yann
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Re:Realistic odds?? Fri, 31 December 2010 13:59
sam1812 wrote on Fri, 31 December 2010 00:56

Yann, any chance of running a statistical randomness test beyond just those very nice overall totals?
Not in the short term: even if I am personnaly interested in this matter, I'd rather spend time on fixing bugs and coding new features... Twisted Evil
Coding a so-called "diehard test" is not that easy.

Yann
      
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