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LooneyLlama
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Odds Question Fri, 18 March 2011 21:27
Ras and I were playing Dug in at Sidi Omar and the score was 5 to 5. It was my turn and I had to get a kill or it was going to be over on his turn as I had a single infantry unit that was surrounded. I had an armor unit that could either move into a close assault on a three inf. unit or fire at long range at a 2 inf. unit. Both would have been with three dice. Of course, if I got a flag on the three inf. unit I would roll again. I couldn't decide which was the better odds. What do you think? Which one do you go for to win the game?

Eric
      
ClanNatioy
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Re:Odds Question Fri, 18 March 2011 22:00
I would have gone for the 3 infantry figure unit. You have about a 50% chance of rolling that flag and that's good enough for me.
      
gheintze
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Re:Odds Question Fri, 18 March 2011 22:29
I agree, the three infantry unit -- 6 dice for 3 hits vs. 3 dice for 2 hits...

Basically you have a 50% chance of eliminating the three figure unit.

Geoff
      
stevens
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Re:Odds Question Fri, 18 March 2011 23:06
Only if you get a flag on the first roll. Otherwise the total dice is 3 rolls. If no flag ---- turn over, game over.
      
Randwulf
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 05:14
I would have shot the two fig with three dice. Each die has a 50%
chance to hit an Inf, thus three dice has a better chance to kill outright than three dice looking for a flag...

At least it has worked out that way for me...
      
sam1812
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 05:19
Rolling 3d against a 2-fig infantry is a 50% shot.

Assuming I didn't make any mistakes in my math, I get about a 35% chance of killing the 3-fig, including overruns:

1/8 chance of 3 hits killing it outrigh: 12.5%

3/8 chance of rolling 2 hits. 1/3 chance of the non-hit being a flag, and 7/8 chance of rolling at least one hit on the overrun: 10.9%

3/8 chance of rolling 1 hit. 5/9 chance of one of the two misses being a flag, and 50% chance of rolling at least 2 hits on the overrun: 10.4%

1/8 chance of whiffing on the first shot. 19/27 chance of at least one of the misses being a flag, with 1/8 chance of a triple hit on the overrun.

Add it all up and you get about 35% probability of the tank killing the 3-fig (not counting situations where flags would push it off the board or out of the tank's range).

Go for the 2-fig.
      
Phread
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 05:59
sam1812 wrote on Sat, 19 March 2011 18:04

Go for the 2-fig.


What he said
      
rasmussen81
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 06:23
LooneyLlama wrote on Sat, 19 March 2011 00:27

Ras and I were playing Dug in at Sidi Omar and the score was 5 to 5. It was my turn and I had to get a kill or it was going to be over on his turn as I had a single infantry unit that was surrounded. I had an armor unit that could either move into a close assault on a three inf. unit or fire at long range at a 2 inf. unit. Both would have been with three dice. Of course, if I got a flag on the three inf. unit I would roll again. I couldn't decide which was the better odds. What do you think? Which one do you go for to win the game?

Eric


I would have played that move exactly that same as you did...and then I would have thrown up my hands when I didn't get the kill!! Very Happy

Sometimes the dice just don't go your way and there's nothing you can do about it. I don't know if you remember the move before your tough decision...I moved an Infantry unit and an Armor unit in behind your 3-figure Infantry, blocking its retreat. When my Infantry rolled, I got two stars and a tank symbol! Then my Armor unit got two Infantry symbols, but it gave you that last turn to try and win the game.

In my attack, there's nothing more I could have done. I was rolling 6 dice and every die had a 66% chance of hitting, but I only got 2 hits. Such is life! Cool
      
stevens
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 12:05
Quote:

Sometimes the dice just don't go your way and there's nothing you can do about it.

Wiser words were never spoken...
- The race is not always to the swift or the battle to the strong...but time and chance happen to them all. [Eccl 9:11]

[Updated on: Sat, 19 March 2011 12:05]

      
LooneyLlama
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 16:17
Thanks guys for the reponses. Since I am not as smart as Sam, I intuitively thought the best odds would be to shoot at the 2 figure inf. It was nice to see Sam verify this mathematically. Unfortunately, I rolled an inf., star, and armor. Ras finished off my inf. next turn. He's right. It was amazing my 3 fig. inf unit lasted the round before. Also,the round before he attacked my inf. unit I had another chance to win the game. I played inf . assault and eliminated an inf. unit and had another inf. unit attack a two fig. armor unit to win the game. The odds were way against me and all I got out of that attack was a retreat. Anyway, that was one great game!!

Eric
      
tank commander
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 18:50
What are the odds of rolling having to roll 18 dice to score 3 hits to kill off a tank while your opponent rolls 14 dice and gets 10 hits vs armor? Shocked





[Updated on: Sat, 19 March 2011 18:51]

      
stevens
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 18:58
The dice are always totally random. The issue is what combination of figures are you trying to get to appear on the dice.

Many times I have rolled 3 armor against an infantry unit and then rolled 3 infantry against an armor unit. The problem is not the dice it is the targeting - which is the human's choice.

Laughing Laughing
      
tank commander
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 21:22
stevens wrote on Sat, 19 March 2011 13:58

The dice are always totally random. The issue is what combination of figures are you trying to get to appear on the dice.

Many times I have rolled 3 armor against an infantry unit and then rolled 3 infantry against an armor unit. The problem is not the dice it is the targeting - which is the human's choice.

Laughing Laughing



In which case I should have elevated my guns - I would have shot down many stars Laughing
      
JJAZ
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Re:Odds Question Sat, 19 March 2011 21:52
What are the odds?

Think of this one!

If you had the choice with 6 dieces to roll for 1 INF :

And if you get the 1 INF or even more then one INF you would be rewarded with eternal life.

If you don't get it you die instantly.

Who would roll the dice?


Sammy davis had a song and the lyrics where " Don't roll the dice
if you can't pay the price" (Baretta's theme)

Laughing

[Updated on: Sat, 19 March 2011 21:52]

      
sam1812
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Re:Odds Question Sun, 20 March 2011 23:12
You said eternal life, not eternal youth, right?
      
JJAZ
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Re:Odds Question Mon, 21 March 2011 20:46
sam1812 wrote on Sun, 20 March 2011 23:12

You said eternal life, not eternal youth, right?


Well ok then eternal youth Laughing Laughing

Now answer my question Sam , Do you Roll Now Today?

      
    
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