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LooneyLlama
Posts: 484
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March 2008
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Odds Question
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Fri, 18 March 2011 21:27
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Ras and I were playing Dug in at Sidi Omar and the score was 5 to 5. It was my turn and I had to get a kill or it was going to be over on his turn as I had a single infantry unit that was surrounded. I had an armor unit that could either move into a close assault on a three inf. unit or fire at long range at a 2 inf. unit. Both would have been with three dice. Of course, if I got a flag on the three inf. unit I would roll again. I couldn't decide which was the better odds. What do you think? Which one do you go for to win the game?
Eric
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CarriCommander
Posts: 128
Registered:
October 2009
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Re:Odds Question
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Fri, 18 March 2011 22:00
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I would have gone for the 3 infantry figure unit. You have about a 50% chance of rolling that flag and that's good enough for me.
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gheintze
Posts: 860
Registered:
August 2004
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Re:Odds Question
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Fri, 18 March 2011 22:29
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I agree, the three infantry unit -- 6 dice for 3 hits vs. 3 dice for 2 hits...
Basically you have a 50% chance of eliminating the three figure unit.
Geoff
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stevens
Posts: 2725
Registered:
February 2007
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Re:Odds Question
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Fri, 18 March 2011 23:06
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Only if you get a flag on the first roll. Otherwise the total dice is 3 rolls. If no flag ---- turn over, game over.
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Randwulf
Posts: 1355
Registered:
March 2005
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Re:Odds Question
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Sat, 19 March 2011 05:14
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I would have shot the two fig with three dice. Each die has a 50%
chance to hit an Inf, thus three dice has a better chance to kill outright than three dice looking for a flag...
At least it has worked out that way for me...
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sam1812
Posts: 1907
Registered:
August 2006
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Re:Odds Question
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Sat, 19 March 2011 05:19
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Rolling 3d against a 2-fig infantry is a 50% shot.
Assuming I didn't make any mistakes in my math, I get about a 35% chance of killing the 3-fig, including overruns:
1/8 chance of 3 hits killing it outrigh: 12.5%
3/8 chance of rolling 2 hits. 1/3 chance of the non-hit being a flag, and 7/8 chance of rolling at least one hit on the overrun: 10.9%
3/8 chance of rolling 1 hit. 5/9 chance of one of the two misses being a flag, and 50% chance of rolling at least 2 hits on the overrun: 10.4%
1/8 chance of whiffing on the first shot. 19/27 chance of at least one of the misses being a flag, with 1/8 chance of a triple hit on the overrun.
Add it all up and you get about 35% probability of the tank killing the 3-fig (not counting situations where flags would push it off the board or out of the tank's range).
Go for the 2-fig.
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Phread
Posts: 1717
Registered:
December 2008
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Re:Odds Question
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Sat, 19 March 2011 05:59
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| sam1812 wrote on Sat, 19 March 2011 18:04 |
Go for the 2-fig.
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What he said
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rasmussen81
Posts: 6063
Registered:
July 2007
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Re:Odds Question
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Sat, 19 March 2011 06:23
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| LooneyLlama wrote on Sat, 19 March 2011 00:27 |
Ras and I were playing Dug in at Sidi Omar and the score was 5 to 5. It was my turn and I had to get a kill or it was going to be over on his turn as I had a single infantry unit that was surrounded. I had an armor unit that could either move into a close assault on a three inf. unit or fire at long range at a 2 inf. unit. Both would have been with three dice. Of course, if I got a flag on the three inf. unit I would roll again. I couldn't decide which was the better odds. What do you think? Which one do you go for to win the game?
Eric
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I would have played that move exactly that same as you did...and then I would have thrown up my hands when I didn't get the kill!! 
Sometimes the dice just don't go your way and there's nothing you can do about it. I don't know if you remember the move before your tough decision...I moved an Infantry unit and an Armor unit in behind your 3-figure Infantry, blocking its retreat. When my Infantry rolled, I got two stars and a tank symbol! Then my Armor unit got two Infantry symbols, but it gave you that last turn to try and win the game.
In my attack, there's nothing more I could have done. I was rolling 6 dice and every die had a 66% chance of hitting, but I only got 2 hits. Such is life! 
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stevens
Posts: 2725
Registered:
February 2007
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LooneyLlama
Posts: 484
Registered:
March 2008
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Re:Odds Question
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Sat, 19 March 2011 16:17
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Thanks guys for the reponses. Since I am not as smart as Sam, I intuitively thought the best odds would be to shoot at the 2 figure inf. It was nice to see Sam verify this mathematically. Unfortunately, I rolled an inf., star, and armor. Ras finished off my inf. next turn. He's right. It was amazing my 3 fig. inf unit lasted the round before. Also,the round before he attacked my inf. unit I had another chance to win the game. I played inf . assault and eliminated an inf. unit and had another inf. unit attack a two fig. armor unit to win the game. The odds were way against me and all I got out of that attack was a retreat. Anyway, that was one great game!!
Eric
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tank commander
Posts: 1788
Registered:
October 2004
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stevens
Posts: 2725
Registered:
February 2007
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Re:Odds Question
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Sat, 19 March 2011 18:58
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The dice are always totally random. The issue is what combination of figures are you trying to get to appear on the dice.
Many times I have rolled 3 armor against an infantry unit and then rolled 3 infantry against an armor unit. The problem is not the dice it is the targeting - which is the human's choice.
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tank commander
Posts: 1788
Registered:
October 2004
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Re:Odds Question
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Sat, 19 March 2011 21:22
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| stevens wrote on Sat, 19 March 2011 13:58 |
The dice are always totally random. The issue is what combination of figures are you trying to get to appear on the dice.
Many times I have rolled 3 armor against an infantry unit and then rolled 3 infantry against an armor unit. The problem is not the dice it is the targeting - which is the human's choice.
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In which case I should have elevated my guns - I would have shot down many stars
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JJAZ
Posts: 483
Registered:
May 2008
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sam1812
Posts: 1907
Registered:
August 2006
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Re:Odds Question
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Sun, 20 March 2011 23:12
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You said eternal life, not eternal youth, right?
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JJAZ
Posts: 483
Registered:
May 2008
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Re:Odds Question
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Mon, 21 March 2011 20:46
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| sam1812 wrote on Sun, 20 March 2011 23:12 |
You said eternal life, not eternal youth, right?
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Well ok then eternal youth
Now answer my question Sam , Do you Roll Now Today?
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