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Praxeo
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Tactics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 19:56
Hi

In a 6-points match, the score reached 5-5.
The weaknesses in your defense leave no doubt on the next turn, where your oponent can win the match. Fortunately, it's your turn. Last chance.

The cards give your three choices :

A/ Attack an Armored unit of 1 fig with 2 dice.
B/ Attack an Artilery unit of 1 fig with 4 dice.
C/ Attack an Infantry unit of 3 fig without retreat hex with 4 dice.

Precision : the Ambush card has already been played.
What is your decision?
(all trhee choices, from the strongest to the weakest).

Best regards
Alexis Beuve

[Updated on: Wed, 01 June 2011 03:22] by Moderator

      
trumpetman52
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 20:18
This sounds like a setup

C/ Attack an infantry unit
A/ Attack an armored unit
B/ Attack an artillery unit

It's just the way I would do it. I am known for losing games.

trumpetman52


      
deemao
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 20:19
Interesting..of course I will try without using your simulator:

1. C/
2. A/
3. B/

I'm using more my experience than math Laughing
      
Turboheizer
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 20:22
Well ... this is not tactics, it's mathematics. If I understand Laplace and Bernoulli right, the probabilities are as follows:

A) ~55%
B) ~52%
C) ~51%

So you should attack the tank unit.
      
rasmussen81
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 20:30
Praxeo wrote on Tue, 31 May 2011 21:56

Hi

In a 6-points match, the score reached 5-5.
The weaknesses in your defense leave no doubt on the next turn, where your oponent can win the match. Fortunately, it's your turn. Last chance.

The cards give your three choices :

A/ Attack an Armored unit of 1 fig with 2 dice.
B/ Attack an Artilery unit of 1 fig with 4 dice.
C/ Attack an Infantry unit of 3 fig without retreat hex with 4 dice.

Precision : the Ambush card has already been played.
What is your decision?
(all trhee choices, from the strongest to the weakest).

Best regards
Alexis Beuve



And people wondered if Praxeo was cheating to get the number 1 spot in Memoir '44 Online!! Rolling Eyes It turns out he just has a Tactics Simulator built into his head...must be nice! Laughing

I imagine this is the kind of thing we can expect to enjoy in the strategy book that's coming out. I'd better get some easy games in now before everyone reads Praxeo's book and improves their strategies. Very Happy
      
Vulch
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 20:38
I am thinking the answer is within Praxeos tactics simulator.

If I have managed to use it correctly the chances of unit annihilation are:

A = 56%
B = 52%
C = 59% (the no retreat element is crucial)

So the answer is C, then A, then B

[Updated on: Tue, 31 May 2011 20:39]

      
ClanNatioy
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 20:54
When is the tactics book supposed to come out in English? I'm looking forward to reading it
      
rasmussen81
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 21:05
CarriCommander wrote on Tue, 31 May 2011 22:54

When is the tactics book supposed to come out in English? I'm looking forward to reading it


There's no official word yet. Eric said that if anyone is a native English speaker but also reads and speaks French at a high level, they should let him know...it would speed up the translating.
      
Erik Uitdebroeck
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 21:27
C - A - B
      
Praxeo
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Re:Tatics - a little game Tue, 31 May 2011 23:39
Praxeo wrote on Tue, 31 May 2011 21:56

I imagine this is the kind of thing we can expect to enjoy in the strategy book that's coming out.


Hi All

Interesting.
There are many good answers (more than on the French forum lol). I'll publish an article tomorrow.
And Rasmussen... fortunately no ! This kind of boring tactical statistics are summarized in one single synthetic chapter, among 21 Wink Thank you for your comment.

Best regards
Alexis Beuve

[Updated on: Tue, 31 May 2011 23:49]

      
Brummbar44
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Re:Tatics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 00:15
Wait!

The answer is D - It doesn't matter because with only one medal to go, I'm sure to miss.

Very Happy
      
Phread
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Re:Tatics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 00:47
Brummbar44 wrote on Wed, 01 June 2011 10:15

Wait!

The answer is D - It doesn't matter because with only one medal to go, I'm sure to miss.

Very Happy


Laughing Laughing Laughing Me too. Laughing Laughing Laughing
      
50th
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Re:Tatics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 00:57
My friends tell me that I'm unusually lucky in my rolls. They talk about it every game. I think C would be the correct answer, but I would probably go with B and attack that arty!

      
Praxeo
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Re:Tatics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 00:59
trumpetman52, deemao, Vulch and Erik Uitdebroeck found the solution C-A-B. Yes, you must attack the 3-fig INF !

The others can read this article.
http://praxeo-fr.blogspot.com/2011/06/m44-praxeo-tactics-sim ulator.html

Sorry, no time to translate it.
This is very simple French, you can Babelfish it easily.
Anyway, download anything you'll find on this page.

Best regards
Alexis Beuve
      
sam1812
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Re:Tatics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 05:28
Vulch wrote on Tue, 31 May 2011 14:38

I am thinking the answer is within Praxeos tactics simulator.

If I have managed to use it correctly the chances of unit annihilation are:

A = 56%
B = 52%
C = 59% (the no retreat element is crucial)

So the answer is C, then A, then B

Assuming that the armor and artillery have enough retreat hexes to accommodate the maximum number of flags, my calculation matches Vulch's.
      
Mighty Jim 83
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Re:Tactics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 11:16
What are attacking with?

If we're attacking with armour, can get into close assault and the defending unit isn't in battle-restricting terrain, then the odds potentially all change up again- for example if the armour can be pushed off its hill allowing for a 3-dice overrun, or the artillery can be pushed back and pinned against the board edge/impassable terrain for a no-retreat overrun.

just too many unknown variables.
      
Nygaard
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Re:Tactics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 11:39
Mighty Jim 83 wrote on Wed, 01 June 2011 11:16

What are attacking with?



Check out Praxeo's link for a picture of the situation.
But you are attacking with a 1 fig Infantry unit using Their Finest Hour.
It's a pretty specific situation, and there's really only one way to play it since Ambush has already been used.
      
Vulch
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Re:Tactics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 15:28
Praxeo

I can see why you have written books on Poker.

It's all about the numbers.
      
Nygaard
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Re:Tactics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 16:05
Vulch wrote on Wed, 01 June 2011 15:28

Praxeo

I can see why you have written books on Poker.

It's all about the numbers.


Or that elusive trait called luck...
      
50th
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Re:Tactics - a little game Wed, 01 June 2011 16:11
numbers again Rolling Eyes I guess I should have listened better in math class! I always hated math and got a D in algebra in High School. But I did better in college and got a B+ and did good in math until I hit calculus. I flunked that Embarassed .


      
Praxeo
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Re:Tactics - a little game Thu, 02 June 2011 00:16
Dear 50th

You're one of the best scenario designers, many of your creations are referenced in my booklet. Keep in touch.

Alexis Beuve

[Updated on: Thu, 02 June 2011 00:16]

      
50th
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Re:Tactics - a little game Thu, 02 June 2011 00:53
Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

Thank You very much.

      
trumpetman52
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Re:Tactics - a little game Thu, 02 June 2011 04:48
Very interesting.
I don't even know what a Praxeos tactics simulator is.
I just figured out the possibilities in my head and went with what i thought i would play if i was playing against someone.

How about that. Maybe common sense is as good as a simulator.

trumpetman52
      
Nygaard
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Re:Tactics - a little game Thu, 02 June 2011 11:17
trumpetman52 wrote on Thu, 02 June 2011 04:48

Very interesting.
I don't even know what a Praxeos tactics simulator is.
(snip) Maybe common sense is as good as a simulator.

trumpetman52


Praxeo's tactics simulator is here:
http://www.daysofwonder.com/en/msg/?th=22339&start=0

As for trusting your intuition when it comes to mathematics, be careful: the Monty Hall problem
      
player guy
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Re:Tactics - a little game Sat, 11 June 2011 05:31
If you ask me, you have a 33% chance of hitting the armor with ONE die (brain isn't working enough to figure out the rest. Sorry), a 16% chance of destroying at least one artillery, a 66% chance of destroying at least one infantry with one die. If you ask me, I would much rather go with option C, since you have a 2/3 chance to hit one infantry with one, but you have 4 against 3. I like those odds very much.

Just my two cents. Again, I didn't calculate anything else other than one die and one unit, as my brain isn't working right now. I'll let you guys figure out what else this means, as we all seem to be getting different ideas.
      
Nygaard
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Re:Tactics - a little game Sat, 11 June 2011 12:44
player guy wrote on Sat, 11 June 2011 05:31

(snip) If you ask me, I would much rather go with option C, since you have a 2/3 chance to hit one infantry with one, but you have 4 against 3. I like those odds very much.
(snip)


Your brain is working fine - C's the best option.
      
    
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