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Dugrim
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Arnhem Victory

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Dice, cards, strategy Tue, 11 December 2012 04:18
Hi, those are the last 2 battles played, the first before my promotion at Major, the last immediately after against the same opponent.
http://www.daysofwonder.com/memoir44-online/en/battle/?id=33 368957#replay:turn=1
http://www.daysofwonder.com/memoir44-online/en/battle/?id=33 369253#replay:turn=1

As you can see on the first battle my hit rate was ludicrous (especially the first kill against his artillery).
On the second battle, not only my hit rate, but even my cards are out of control (2 Armor Assault, 2 infantry Assault and one Artillery Bombard... Really?).

My silly question is: what the percentage for a victory for you between dice, cards and strategy?

In my opinion 50% dice, 30% cards and 20% strategy.

This doesn't mean that you have only to be lucky to be a good player but...

What's your opinion?
      
Helcat
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Tue, 11 December 2012 05:02
I think it is 50% strategy, 30% cards and 20% dice.

And I will have to explain that. For one scenario and one game luck makes a difference. But if you play al lot of games, skill is more important than luck. Bad luck and good luck on both cards and dice will even out if you have played more than 1000 games. Determining the right strategy and anticipating on the possibilities of your opponent is more important than the outcome of a sequence of dice rolls or hands you have been dealt.

There are players that beat the odds continuously. That is what I call skill. If you take a look at the post of Stevens you will see that he has almost a 75% victory score. He has played 2012 games with 1500 victories.

That shows that you have to be skillfull to be a good player.

[Updated on: Tue, 11 December 2012 05:02]

      
Phread
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Tue, 11 December 2012 05:54
I think it is 30% strategy, 30% cards and 40% dice.

Too many times I have seen good strategy supported by good cards simply ruined by poor dice.

Often I have seen a player (myself or my opponent) unable to have a strategy because of a run of unhelpful cards.

It is the frustrating part and rewarding part of M44.

Frustrating to have had good cards that supported a strategy spoilt by below average dice.

Rewarding to win with a good strategy and just enough cards and dice to make it work, or to win against better cards and dice by using a better strategy.

      
sam1812
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Tue, 11 December 2012 14:50
They're fundamentally different.

You can control your strategy. A bad strategy will usually get you defeated -- often, even on the favored side of a scenario.

You can't control what cards you get (though you can control how you play them).

And you can't control what you roll with the dice (though you can control whether you'll roll relatively many or few, and what targets you'll roll them against, and to some extent, how many dice your opponent will be able to roll against you).
      
JFKoski
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Tue, 11 December 2012 18:17
Scenario/side should be the 4th % to consider.
      
Jeronimon
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Tue, 11 December 2012 19:37
sam1812 wrote on Tue, 11 December 2012 14:50

You can't control what cards you get (though you can control how you play them).

if you have enough patience, you can control what cards you get (in the end). There are some players out there who take the time to save up for a good hand.

I personally do not have the patience for it, most of the time, but "working the cards" a little is part of the game I feel. Razz
      
van Voort
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Tue, 11 December 2012 19:40
If the scenario lets you do that.

Sometimes you are right under the gun from the start (a lot of the Med ones are like that)
      
tank commander
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Wed, 12 December 2012 11:32
Jeronimon wrote on Tue, 11 December 2012 13:37

sam1812 wrote on Tue, 11 December 2012 14:50

You can't control what cards you get (though you can control how you play them).

if you have enough patience, you can control what cards you get (in the end). There are some players out there who take the time to save up for a good hand.

I personally do not have the patience for it, most of the time, but "working the cards" a little is part of the game I feel. Razz


Usually one starts with a few decent cards and are fortunate enough to draw a few along the way.

But if you start with garbage and draw garbage, well...

I played a recent game where most of my forces started in the center. I only played two center cards all game long for a total of 3 orders. All my other cards were either Recons or Probes on my flanks. I played a Recon and drew another Recon and Dig In Laughing

Meanwhile my opponent played a series of card that ordered more units than I did and picked apart my mostly stationary forces. I guess we have all been there.

At any rate, yes skill certainly counts for something. As to cards and dice, I always said I will take good cards and good dice as opposed to great cards and poor dice.

I witnessed one game where a player played back to back Armor Assault and close assaulted with 4 tanks in both turns. He did not get one kill-in fact he caused very little damage with a ton of dice. His opponent then took him apart in a few turns.
      
Dugrim
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Wed, 12 December 2012 18:33
Wow!
So many good answers!
Let me put my 50 cents for my "provocative" question (and first answer).

A good strategy is fundamental, but it could be hampered by the cards on your hand (as tank commander stated: "I played a recent game where most of my forces started in the center. I only played two center cards all game long for a total of 3 orders. All my other cards were either Recons or Probes on my flanks. I played a Recon and drew another Recon and Dig In").

After this, you could have very good cards that boost your strategy, but they could be hampered by poor dice...

Sure, with a lot of battles bad luck and good luck will even out, but every single battle is a battle on his own, that will be put on the cauldron of the thousand battles AFTER played it.

Luck is one of the most important things to reckon for a battle (IMHO).

Rememeber the commemorative stone put up by the 7th Bersaglieri Regiment on the road from Alexandria to El Alamein at the high-water mark for the Italian advance.
The inscription reads: Mancò la fortuna, non il valore (A failure of fortune, not of valour).

And as an Italian, I want to remember one of the most famous battle fought with valour by the Italians, on the wrong side unfortunately.

[Updated on: Wed, 12 December 2012 18:34]

      
Jokull
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Fri, 14 December 2012 21:34
I used ti say 70% luck and 30% skill, but with luck being even skill is more important.

But Hellcat is correct. Luck alone never gets you to the top.

So I agree with his assessment:

50% Tactics

30% Cards

20% Dice

Cards are more important than dice for the whole game is about maximizing dice against your opponent and minimizing his. Cards are more helpful than lucky dice since it isn't about the individual roll but the total dice rolled.
      
stevens
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Fri, 14 December 2012 22:19
Jokull wrote on Fri, 14 December 2012 15:34

I used ti say 70% luck and 30% skill, but with luck being even skill is more important.

But Hellcat is correct. Luck alone never gets you to the top.

So I agree with his assessment:

50% Tactics

30% Cards

20% Dice



I also agree with this assessment that 50% of the game is out of your control. You still always play the odds and optimize your opportunities and a MORE skilled player will know better how to do that.

[Updated on: Sat, 15 December 2012 13:10]

      
sdnative
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Sat, 15 December 2012 04:08
JFKoski wrote on Tue, 11 December 2012 09:17

Scenario/side should be the 4th % to consider.


JFKoski is right all those numbers are fine on a 50/50 scenario but some scenarios you need MORE luck than usual.
      
rasmussen81
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Sat, 15 December 2012 06:01
sdnative wrote on Sat, 15 December 2012 07:08

JFKoski wrote on Tue, 11 December 2012 09:17

Scenario/side should be the 4th % to consider.


JFKoski is right all those numbers are fine on a 50/50 scenario but some scenarios you need MORE luck than usual.



Or better strategy! Very Happy
      
stevens
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Sat, 15 December 2012 13:28
sdnative wrote on Fri, 14 December 2012 22:08

JFKoski wrote on Tue, 11 December 2012 09:17

Scenario/side should be the 4th % to consider.


JFKoski is right all those numbers are fine on a 50/50 scenario but some scenarios you need MORE luck than usual.



If you are talking about winning from one particular side in a single scenario, you are talking about an entirely different subject than I was addressing. I reserve my percentage remarks to match play where each side plays the scenario once from each side and the total number of medals and figures are taken into account.

I think if you start talking about winning First Assault Wave as Allies or Arnhem Bridge as Axis, you will have to admit that luck was a larger factor and that the skill variant between the opponents may also have been disproportional for the "underdog" to eke out the victory. I would say this situation was true in the cases where I saw victories either for myself or for my opponent in these particular scenarios.

This is why if I am playing a single scenario, I would like to opt for a more balanced odds in the scenario itself. Fortunately, there are quite a few to choose from:

Battle of Warsaw
Operation Cobra
Suomussalmi
Red Barricades
Ponyri
Breakout to Lisyanka
Hellfire Pass
Escape via the Coastal Road


      
Phread
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Sat, 15 December 2012 19:54
You should at Montelimar to your list of balanced scenarios.

It has every type of units, objective medals and can easily be won by either side.
      
Phread
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Sun, 16 December 2012 23:53
Back to the topic.

Playing solo against the overly aggressive AI shows that a poor strategy (especially excessive aggression) generally leads to defeat.

The AI can generally be defeated despite the odds (in most scenarios) even if the AI has better cards and dice.

So strategy is important.

Overwhelming cards and dice advantage can beat any strategy. Even the AI with its aggression will win if its opponent can't get enough hits from the combination of dice and cards.

So dice and cards are important too.

What hasn't been discussed is experience.
An experienced player knows not to panic, that the dice and cards can (and do) change. Experience helps form one's strategy. Wisdom built upon lessons learnt in previous battles is very important.

But at the end of the day (and sometimes I forget this (to my regret) and get too serious) this is a game and we should enjoy the game and the camaraderie of the game.
      
Helcat
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Tue, 18 December 2012 01:50
Hear, hear!

[Updated on: Tue, 18 December 2012 01:51]

      
Nygaard
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Thu, 20 December 2012 13:59
stevens wrote on Sat, 15 December 2012 13:28



This is why if I am playing a single scenario, I would like to opt for a more balanced odds in the scenario itself. Fortunately, there are quite a few to choose from:

Battle of Warsaw
Operation Cobra
Suomussalmi
Red Barricades
Ponyri
Breakout to Lisyanka
Hellfire Pass
Escape via the Coastal Road





Interestingly enough I think there are many of the less "even" maps that give you much more control than some of the 50-50 maps.
Warsaw is a personal pet-peeve of mine - it's completely decided by the dice and cards because both sides are evenly matched and there's only 1 possible STRATEGY for both sides: Shoot-shoot-shoot.
I feel much more in control when playing maps like Wake or Meatgrinder - even though the odds are supposedly worse (30/70).

IMO there are two elements that are important for interesting (and fair) maps: Both sides need to maneuver to win, and no single starting card can completely ruin the match (such as Barrage on Sword Beach - which effectively gives the allies a 41% chance to win from the get go if they can play that first).

Just my 0.02 DKK
      
clorofila
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Thu, 20 December 2012 15:57
Nygaard wrote on Thu, 20 December 2012 12:59


Warsaw is a personal pet-peeve of mine - it's completely decided by the dice and cards because both sides are evenly matched and there's only 1 possible STRATEGY for both sides: Shoot-shoot-shoot.


I agree completely. And the strangest thing is that Battle of Warsaw is rated 3 stars!
Last time I played it (when playing Allies) my opponent wrote: "I don't like the way you play" (to which I replied something like "Yes, I understand: that's how bad this scenario is.")

Nygaard

IMO there are two elements that are important for interesting (and fair) maps: Both sides need to maneuver to win,(...)


Very true. On the matter, see Matanikau River, which can either be played for fun (with maneuver) or for death-boredom (relying on artilleries): http://www.boardgamegeek.com/article/9929976#9929976
In my opinion, this is a scenario handicap, not something to charge a player of, just because he choses what (for him) seems to be the best strategy to win the game.

Nygaard

(...) and no single starting card can completely ruin the match (such as Barrage on Sword Beach - which effectively gives the allies a 41% chance to win from the get go if they can play that first).


Or killer starting card combinations, turning games into a 5 minutes slaughter at poor scenarios like 1st Armored to the Rescue or Sidi Rezegh Airfield!
      
stevie02
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Thu, 20 December 2012 15:57
Interesting point about the barrage on sword. Similar to Armoured Assault in sidi rotten airfield or one or two other desert scenarios. Game breakers...... Almost

Stevie
      
stevie02
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Thu, 20 December 2012 15:58
Beat me to it clorofila Razz
      
clorofila
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Thu, 20 December 2012 16:04
Smile
      
stevens
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Thu, 20 December 2012 16:06
As I see from the comments. Most seem to enjoy a game that involves manuever and good card play versus the luck of the draw. I too am in agreement that games that provide these elements are the most enjoyable and entertaining.


http://houstonagentmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/pinball-300x187.jpg

 http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcScNYOXsAGv3d7rsFmuJgwA7efQ-9WdbjkBVYMjNeEvGKTKBTn7GQ

I also tend to stay away from the Med. Theater pinball shootouts.

[Updated on: Thu, 20 December 2012 16:15]

      
silenttimo
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Re:Dice, cards, strategy Thu, 20 December 2012 17:36
I usually say that M44 is :

- 50% luck
- 30% strategy
- 15% bluff
- 5% daring

Strategy / bluff / daring could be combined to be seen as "skill".

However, as some other players have written, around 20-25% of the maps (that's 15-20 maps out of about 80) are so "unbalanced" in a way or another that poor cards & dice can really ruin your strategy.

Play "Sidi Rezegh" as allies with infantry / artillery / left flank cards, and you're cooked !

Lose (as axis) one of your artilleries on 1st allies' turn on "First wave" and it'll be very difficult to win.

[Updated on: Thu, 20 December 2012 17:38]

      
    
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