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Zugbegleiterin
Senior Member

Posts: 109
Registered:
December 2004
  Average Score at 1430? Thu, 05 May 2005 16:13
Hi Days of Wonder,

just checked my logs and found the average score of my opponents to be 1430 elo points, considering paid accounts only. Is this also true for the whole community?
How are guests rated on the average? Do you keep track of any related information?

Just curious.
      
Roaring Possum
Member

Posts: 56
Registered:
August 2004
Re:Average Score at 1430? Mon, 09 May 2005 16:52
With everyone starting at 1500 points, and the net points for all players of a game supposedly zero, I also found it strange that the median for points seems to be closer to 1400 than 1500. I started a thread on this awhile ago, and Days of Wonder said that they would look into it, but I never heard anything more about it. One possibility mentioned was that guests have above average scores, since they don't show up in the lists, but I would expect guests to likely have a lower average score than regulars.
      
Zugbegleiterin
Senior Member

Posts: 109
Registered:
December 2004
Re:Average Score at 1430? Mon, 09 May 2005 18:01
There are ways how elo points can leak from the system.

First, we must make the distinction between ALL players and ACTIVE players. The avarage score of the active players I find more interesting. When people stop playing having a higher score than the average, they rest of us is left back with a lower average score. I don't know whether there is a significant effect from that.

New players get 1500 points in the beginning. Reading the formulas I find, that the initial score to start with has hardly a influence on the average after a new player is established. The formulas for beginners are designed to quickly bring the newbies to the average level, only partially transfering their points to/from established players. Since new players probably tend to lose to established players, they are even brought to a level below the average. This effect might significantly lower the average score over time.

Edit: Stripping points from cheaters is an other way to lower the average Very Happy

[Updated on: Tue, 10 May 2005 16:37]

      
AlexM
Member

Posts: 36
Registered:
July 2004
Re:Average Score at 1430? Mon, 16 May 2005 22:40
People start at 1500? I find that impossible to believe. People above 1500 are rare.
      
Brice
-= Crew =-
Commandant

User Pages
Posts: 1917
Registered:
October 2002
Re:Average Score at 1430? Tue, 17 May 2005 11:00
AlexM wrote on Mon, 16 May 2005 22:40

People start at 1500? I find that impossible to believe. People above 1500 are rare.

They start at 1500 in the provisional ranking...
but when entering the 'regular' ranking, they have more (or less) points than that...
      
léachris -
Senior Member

User Pages
Posts: 1715
Registered:
July 2004
Re:Average Score at 1430? Wed, 18 May 2005 09:59
Brice écrit le Tue, 17 May 2005 11:00

They start at 1500 in the provisional ranking...
but when entering the 'regular' ranking, they have more (or less) points than that...


I was looking at the provisionnal ranking table and something shocked me !
Only look at the top 20 : how is it possible that 19 of them have more than 1560 points with only one game ?

The first one has 1670 points with one game !!!!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked

Would there be a bug that would explain the problem with the scores of players entering the regular ranking ?

[Updated on: Wed, 18 May 2005 10:01]

      
Zugbegleiterin
Senior Member

Posts: 109
Registered:
December 2004
Re:Average Score at 1430? Wed, 18 May 2005 19:39
As I read the formulas: 1670 points after one game is a win against somebody with 1570 points. Doesn't matter where the beginner startet.
      
AlexM
Member

Posts: 36
Registered:
July 2004
Re:Average Score at 1430? Wed, 18 May 2005 21:13
So in other words, the means used to determine provisional ratings are screwed to hell. Lovely. Wink
      
Zugbegleiterin
Senior Member

Posts: 109
Registered:
December 2004
Re:Average Score at 1430? Wed, 18 May 2005 22:07
AlexM wrote on Wed, 18 May 2005 21:13

So in other words, the means used to determine provisional ratings are screwed to hell. Lovely. Wink

IMHO, that judgement is too harsh. A provisional ranking after one game says nothing at all. New players have to get a ranking somehow. That is more or less a matter of estimation, how ever you do it. A flat rate of 1500 is just one possible solution. The formulas, that apply here, bring newbies within 20 games to a level near the average of established active players, obviously to hold that average at the given level.
The only real improvement, I could think of, would be to not show the provisional ranking on the web site.

[Updated on: Wed, 18 May 2005 22:13]

      
djkelsey
Junior Member

Posts: 1
Registered:
May 2005
Re:Average Score at 1430? Sat, 21 May 2005 06:22

That person still has to get 20 games in as "provisional"....the score will drop. Anybody can get lucky and win one game and then quit.
      
Rode katers
Member

Posts: 80
Registered:
January 2005
Re:Average Score at 1430? Sun, 22 May 2005 01:58
Still a score 0f 1670 is not possible. In the ranking system a player can not win more than 32 points a game. Let's say a starting player plays a five player game and wins. Then he can only win 4 times 32 is 128 points. The best score would then be 1628.

Isn't there a DOW-member who can explain the rankingsystem for TTR? I always understood that the ranking system explained at the Dragonstone-game was also true for TTR.
      
frunk
Member

Posts: 38
Registered:
November 2004
Re:Average Score at 1430? Sun, 22 May 2005 17:09
The provisional period (the first 20 games) used a modified formula to allow for a broader range of initial ratings then the +/- 32 of the standard one. It works reasonably well, but it does mean that 1500 is less likely to be the average score.
      
    
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