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Phread
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Worst dice Mon, 01 August 2011 02:19
What is your worst sequence of dice rolls?

I have just played two battles at Sidi Rezegh Airfield losing both with a terrible sequence of dice. Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

I had a sequence of 47 shots at armoured targets for 5, yes only 5 hits. (0/9 at the end of battle 1 and 5/38 in battle 2)

As Allies I fired 38 shots, and rolled 0 tank rolls , 0% against only armoured targets !! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked



Who is a statistician amongst us?
What it the probability of zero tank rolls being rolled from 38 dice?

As far as I can remember this is the first time I have had a zero for one of the dice types.

Has anyone a worse story to share?


      
k9mike
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Re:Worst dice Mon, 01 August 2011 03:34
Hey Phread....You must have caught what I got...lol
Sounds alot of what I have been rolling lately...Wink
And to top things off...I get that Lucky Bastard Award...Yah..Right! I got all my luck in one roll...lol
Well, its nice to know others are gettin the shaft too...Smile
Mike
      
GI John
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Re:Worst dice Mon, 01 August 2011 04:40
It's comforting to know that someone out there is unluckier than myself. Laughing
      
Phread
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Re:Worst dice Mon, 01 August 2011 12:40
Gentlemen, I am glad I have made you feel better. Cool Cool Cool Cool

But what I asked for was examples of your bad rolls. Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

Can anyone beat 0 from 38, armour or grenade or even infantry rolls?
Games where you only got 1 or 2 turns don't count as you won't have rolled enough dice to be statistically valid.

      
Hydborg
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Re:Worst dice Mon, 01 August 2011 21:07
Phread wrote on Mon, 01 August 2011 03:19

What is your worst sequence of dice rolls?

I have just played two battles at Sidi Rezegh Airfield losing both with a terrible sequence of dice. Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

I had a sequence of 47 shots at armoured targets for 5, yes only 5 hits. (0/9 at the end of battle 1 and 5/38 in battle 2)

As Allies I fired 38 shots, and rolled 0 tank rolls , 0% against only armoured targets !! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked



Who is a statistician amongst us?
What it the probability of zero tank rolls being rolled from 38 dice?

As far as I can remember this is the first time I have had a zero for one of the dice types.

Has anyone a worse story to share?





I don't have a worse story to tell, but was amazed how poor my target selection was today Wink
From 108 shots fired on Red Barricades Factory I got total of 34 hits (31%). Partly the low hit rate was because I targeted the snipers and on the other hand I rolled infantry against tanks and vice versa Laughing




Well it happens and both matches were tough and real FUN to play! Very Happy

And to answer Phreads question is about 1/1000. The change to not to throw tank with 1 die is 5/6 and raise that to the power of 38 which gives us (5/6)^38 = 0.0009797, then multiply that by 100 to get the result in percents. Hopefully I remembered my statistics class correctly, can someone confirm my calculations?
      
Phread
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 02 August 2011 01:39
Follow up.

I returned to "Sidi Rezegh Airfield" today for another battle and rematch. Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

From the Axis side I rolled 50 dice with 4 armour rolls.
A combined total of 4/88 ! Shocked Shocked Shocked

From the Allied side I rolled 49 dice with 14 armour rolls.
So from 3 battles 137 dice rolls, 18 armour rolls. Confused Confused Confused

One would expect 1/6 armour rolls ~23 armour rolls from 137 dice.
So over time I have got nearer (almost) 1/7 armour rolls to the average 1/6.

Perhaps it is the Quartermaster's fault as they are clearly supply my troops with the wrong ammunition. Laughing Laughing Laughing
      
stevens
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 02 August 2011 14:23
It's not what you roll - it's when you roll it.

Often I have gotten 3 tanks against an infantry target and then get three infantry against the armor target. The dice even out over time. But you are correct the quartermaster crew marks the ammunition incorrectly.

Laughing
      
fjetzt
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 05 August 2011 00:37
Just finished a game with overall 16% hit rate (total 56 rolls). The opponent had 65 rolls and 42% hit rate.

Needless to say that I played the underdog on Omaha.

Anyone better?
      
Phread
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 05 August 2011 00:54
Perhaps we as Colonels get special dice - especially bad ones. Shocked Laughing Shocked Laughing Shocked
      
k9mike
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 05 August 2011 05:20
Phread, where do you find that portion of stats at? Tux
Mike
      
Phread
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 05 August 2011 05:48
k9mike wrote on Fri, 05 August 2011 15:20

Phread, where do you find that portion of stats at? Tux
Mike


Mike which stats are you referring to?
      
k9mike
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 05 August 2011 17:38
Sorry Phread... it was the part of your thread you were quoting percentages an such. Is this found somewhere or did you just keep track? Thx for any Help
Mike
      
dave65tdh
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 23 August 2011 07:17
Phread wrote on Sun, 31 July 2011 17:19

As Allies I fired 38 shots, and rolled 0 tank rolls , 0% against only armoured targets !! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Who is a statistician amongst us?
What it the probability of zero tank rolls being rolled from 38 dice?

As far as I can remember this is the first time I have had a zero for one of the dice types.

So I'm glad someone else has worse luck then me too. One thing about having bad luck is that I think it actually makes you a better player because you have to find a way to win with less. Then when luck finally comes back around, it's a cake-walk.

So I only played the first few scenarios, but i think I can answer this question. The chance for rolling 38 dice without rolling a particular number can be determined by figuring out what the probably is for always rolling the other 5 numbers. As such, it's 5/6 * 5/6 * etc for 38 dice or 5/6 to the 38th power. In excel it would be =power(5/6,38). In other words, there's a 0.098% chance to not roll any tanks in 38 rolls; in other words, you'll have to play another 1021 games on average to see that feat again. Rare yes, but certainly within the scope of expectations.

I've noticed some very streaky dice too and it's a little irritating when the AI rolls 4 dice and gets 4 hits while you roll 11 and only get 2 hits--that game should have been mine the big cheater.

Cheers.
      
Captain Pittman
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 26 August 2011 07:51
I rolled 27 dice on a single tank figure (not unit) that also moved across three frozen river hexes and was at some points in a position that could not retreat with no kill. Cost me the game. Not as bad as yours, but very close.
      
CappyTom
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 06 September 2011 03:49
Thanks for this thread. I love the game but uninstalled the online game. I've never rolled this bad in any games I've played. And I can roll quite bad but this is...

I will stick to face to face battles. If you want to turn people off to this game, let them try this first.

Tom
      
Nygaard
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 06 September 2011 09:00
CappyTom wrote on Tue, 06 September 2011 03:49

Thanks for this thread. I love the game but uninstalled the online game. I've never rolled this bad in any games I've played. And I can roll quite bad but this is...

I will stick to face to face battles. If you want to turn people off to this game, let them try this first.

Tom

Sad

It's really sad if bad dice roll turns people off this game. Maybe we should give new players a couple of re-rolls to make them happy. Razz

Also it's curious how people seem to think that bad rolls only happen to them, not their opponents or the AI...

I'm really surprised how many people think they roll worse online than in real life. Makes me wonder if the real-life dice are crooked (they probably are - this isn't exactly Vegas-dice precision), or maybe people are just better at cheating f2f ("oops - I pushed that to the floor! What? No, I don't think it was going to be a star...") Smile

Remind me to have a random distribution of dice for the tournament I'm running in a month...

[Updated on: Tue, 06 September 2011 09:00]

      
gheintze
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 06 September 2011 19:22
I'll admit that the dice seem 'streakier' online -- that I have hot and cold streaks. But on the other hand, i've never played this many face to face games in a row (or ever, actually).

Because of the speed of the game and lack of setup, I would venture that most players have played more games online that face to face. This would sort of invalidate the comparisons for most of us, but that is another topic.

But after playing many games (over 1500), i've seen great dice and terrible dice. It does even out. Some games they are awful, but awful for both, and some they are good.

I believe that most of this is that we remember when the dice are bad, but not when they are good -- especially at the end of the games when our interest is heightened.

For example, when rolling three dice (with a tank unit) against a two figure unit -- I usually assume that I'll hit twice. So, my assumption is for 66% hits, but the average is 50%. I EXPECT to get better odds. So one hit -- which is just less than average -- is a disappointment.

In addition, if I roll three hits -- which is above average -- I forget about that third hit since it didn't matter. In conclusion, there is no way for the roll to exceed my expectations in this case -- and plenty of ways for disappointment.

So my theory -- the probability of getting an amazing, memorable, great roll is much lower than a terrible roll -- but only because of our interpretation of the odds and our expectations.

And in addition, as Nygaard said, it happens to the AI and our opponents as well. But we really don't remember those either...

As I said above, if you play enough it will even out. There is more skill to this game than is apparent at first.

Geoff

[Updated on: Tue, 06 September 2011 19:55]

      
rasmussen81
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 06 September 2011 19:43
Very eloquently put, Geoff! I couldn't agree more. Cool
      
gheintze
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 06 September 2011 19:52
rasmussen81 wrote on Tue, 06 September 2011 13:43

Very eloquently put, Geoff! I couldn't agree more. Cool


High praise, indeed. Glad to be of service. Very Happy

Geoff
      
Jokull
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Re:Worst dice Wed, 07 September 2011 02:56
It doesn't count if there isn't a screen shot!

Smile

Love to see a screen shot of 38 dice = 0
      
Wehrwolf
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Re:Worst dice Wed, 07 September 2011 04:22
Jokull wrote on Tue, 06 September 2011 19:56

It doesn't count if there isn't a screen shot!



I was tempted to retouch a screen shot to show me getting 0 hits out of 500 as a joke, but then I got lazy and instead just typed this.
      
rasmussen81
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Re:Worst dice Wed, 07 September 2011 04:25
Wehrwolf wrote on Wed, 07 September 2011 06:22

Jokull wrote on Tue, 06 September 2011 19:56

It doesn't count if there isn't a screen shot!



I was tempted to retouch a screen shot to show me getting 0 hits out of 500 as a joke, but then I got lazy and instead just typed this.


Well, at least you're honest! Laughing Laughing
      
Nygaard
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Re:Worst dice Wed, 07 September 2011 08:50
Wehrwolf wrote on Wed, 07 September 2011 04:22

Jokull wrote on Tue, 06 September 2011 19:56

It doesn't count if there isn't a screen shot!



I was tempted to retouch a screen shot to show me getting 0 hits out of 500 as a joke, but then I got lazy and instead just typed this.

LOL! Laughing Laughing Laughing
      
Caboose
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Re:Worst dice Thu, 08 September 2011 23:44
Well against the AI, I had the 25% hit rate against infantry. Sadly, my hit rate against armor was 30% or something like that.

Moral of the story...GO for ARMOR....ROFL!

Cab
      
Phread
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 09 September 2011 01:28
For those of you who think the AI gets special dice - I played "Cadet Hermann" in Operation Spring (the new scenario) from both sides.

As Allies Hermann rolled 10/23 45% vs infantry 1/12 8% vs armour 32% overall.
As Axis Hermann rolled 5/19 26% vs infantry 5/10 50% vs armour 34% overall.

Hermann had an unlucky day.

[Updated on: Fri, 09 September 2011 01:29]

      
sam1812
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Re:Worst dice Sat, 10 September 2011 07:53
Well, I just had a game at Sidi Omar where I rolled 8% (6/26) (EDIT: That was 2/26) against the German armor.

Then in the rematch, my opponent rolled 46% (16/35) against my armor.

[Updated on: Sat, 10 September 2011 15:00]

      
Phread
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Re:Worst dice Sat, 10 September 2011 09:32
Welcome to my world
      
clorofila
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Re:Worst dice Sat, 10 September 2011 11:33
sam1812 wrote on Sat, 10 September 2011 06:53

Well, I just had a game at Sidi Omar where I rolled 8% (6/26) against the German armor.



Hi sam. Something's wrong with your figures, since 6/26 = 23%.
Your opponent still doubled your hit rate and I don't mean to spoil your misery, but it wasn't that bad Smile
      
sam1812
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Re:Worst dice Sat, 10 September 2011 14:58
Whoops - you're right. My late-night typo. It was 2-for-26. 7.69%, to be a little more precise.
      
Phread
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 25 October 2011 11:49
Another example of bad dice - but this time it was my opponents turn. Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Playing Dug in at Sidi Omar, I was Axis, my unlucky opponent was the Allies.
The Allies fired 27 shots, 48% infantry rolls (13) 0% yes 0% armour rolls, 15% grenade rolls (4), 15% flag rolls (4) and 22% star rolls (6).
Unfortunately it was a tank battle, the Allies never fired at any infantry, of their 27 shots they scored 3/23 (13%) on armour
and 1/4 (25%) on artillery. Overall 4/27 15%.

Tha Axis rolls were 54 shots fired 24 hits (46%)
Infantry 8/19 42%
Armour 16/33 48%
Artillery 0/0 0%

Infantry %31 16 rolls
Armour %19 10 roll
Grenades %21 11
Flags %13 7
Stars %15 8


The Allies won no medals in this battle. It was Allied Lambs to the Axis slaughter.

The Allied statistics are amongst the worst I have ever seen.
      
sam1812
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 18 January 2013 01:47
21 shots against my armor, and 12 shots against my no-retreat artillery.

0 hits.

That's a 1-in-647,160 probability.

In a tournament final, rolled by a very strong opponent. Beyond incredible.

http://cdn.daysofwonder.com/uploads/userpages/256598/_5990_web.jpg
      
stevens
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 18 January 2013 02:05
Sounds like you are up for IRON Artillery and IRON Armor Sam!
      
tank commander
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 18 January 2013 13:00
sam1812 wrote on Thu, 17 January 2013 19:47

21 shots against my armor, and 12 shots against my no-retreat artillery.

0 hits.

That's a 1-in-647,160 probability.

In a tournament final, rolled by a very strong opponent. Beyond incredible.

http://cdn.daysofwonder.com/uploads/userpages/256598/_5990_web.jpg



Your opponent should have posted that Laughing

I have had many examples of bad luck in the Online version. One game I rolled close to 60 dice against the AI and got 1 grenade while the AI got 16.

I think I focus more on the hit rate difference. Too often I will be on the other side of a 20+ pct difference. That is the real killer.
      
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Re:Worst dice Fri, 18 January 2013 16:05
Although there are some players out there who think my name gives me a special advantage, I have earned the dubious honor of a 0% hit rate for an entire battle. That's because I never fired a shot, and my opponent fired 32 times in his first turn! But that story has already been told...

More recently, I think I beat Phread's bad luck battle wherein he rolled 4/88 against armor. Considering the chance of rolling a tank or a grenade are 1/3 per die, those are long odds indeed. Mine are even worse. While playing Russian Breakout I managed to lose as the Axis by rolling 1/23 against my opponent's armor. That's equivalent to 4/92 when probability suggests the ratio 30 or 31/92.

But never tell a lucky duck the odds!
      
Erik Uitdebroeck
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Re:Worst dice Sat, 19 January 2013 18:07
stevens wrote on Fri, 18 January 2013 02:05

Sounds like you are up for IRON Artillery and IRON Armor Sam!

Speaking of ...

What is the status of The Army of Iron Club ?
http://www.daysofwonder.com/en/msg/?goto=241606#msg_241606

[Updated on: Sat, 19 January 2013 18:10]

      
JAParker
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Re:Worst dice Sun, 10 February 2013 20:35
Well, this battle does not rank up there with some of the others mentioned on this thread, but it is nevertheless the worse one that I have ever had--I think!

http://www.daysofwonder.com/memoir44-online/en/battle/?id=34 442355#replay:turn=1

I was playing the Allies in Panzers vs. Grants. Out of my 20 shots, I only got one hit--and that came on my last turn of the game. My opponent won 5-0 in a total of 7 turns (4 for him, 3 for me).
      
stevens
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Re:Worst dice Sun, 10 February 2013 22:34
Wow! One hit and he blanked you. OUCH!
      
BroCharlie12
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Re:Worst dice Tue, 12 February 2013 05:08
CappyTom wrote on Mon, 05 September 2011 21:49

Thanks for this thread. I love the game but uninstalled the online game. I've never rolled this bad in any games I've played. And I can roll quite bad but this is...

I will stick to face to face battles. If you want to turn people off to this game, let them try this first.

Tom


I know CappyTom wrote this a long time ago, but since the thread was revived I thought I would respond.

I just started playing the online game January 2013. I wanted to play the board game, I even went to a local hobby store that was advertising starting a WWII historic board game club. I was the only one interested in Memoir 44. So I started playing the online version and yes at times the dice seem unlucky, that has not deterred me.

I think the game is a challenge at times. I also think the community is great! Everyone that I have played so far (with the exception of one) have been fearsome yet honorable opponents. And those moments when the dice "fail" me... well those are just opportunities to be a gentleman and an officer!

Have a great day all.

David
      
Nygaard
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Re:Worst dice Mon, 18 February 2013 10:58
BroCharlie12 wrote on Tue, 12 February 2013 05:08

CappyTom wrote on Mon, 05 September 2011 21:49

Thanks for this thread. I love the game but uninstalled the online game. I've never rolled this bad in any games I've played. And I can roll quite bad but this is...

I will stick to face to face battles. If you want to turn people off to this game, let them try this first.

Tom


I know CappyTom wrote this a long time ago, but since the thread was revived I thought I would respond.

I just started playing the online game January 2013. I wanted to play the board game, I even went to a local hobby store that was advertising starting a WWII historic board game club. I was the only one interested in Memoir 44. So I started playing the online version and yes at times the dice seem unlucky, that has not deterred me.

I think the game is a challenge at times. I also think the community is great! Everyone that I have played so far (with the exception of one) have been fearsome yet honorable opponents. And those moments when the dice "fail" me... well those are just opportunities to be a gentleman and an officer!

Have a great day all.

David


Welcome David, good to have you with us here online. The board game is great too, and there are many elements that DOW will probably never put online, so don't give up finding someone to play it with live (campaigns are great fun, even if you can find only one other player to play with).
Look forward to seeing you online.
      
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Re:Worst dice Sun, 03 March 2013 17:40
The name "Lucky" does not alawys mean "good luck" as the following battle makes abundantly clear.

But first, a challenge! If ANYONE out there has ever had a worse game, I will award that player with a special, one of a kind "Unlucky Duck" medal. For now, I claim it as my own.

The scenario was "Battle of Termoli" which is in SFTF, and I was playing as the Allies. In 8 turns, I rolled 0%, and lost the battle 0-6. That's right, 8 turns, no hits, while my opponent rolled 49 times and scored 22 times. The odds of this occurring are so astronomically improbable that I can't come up with enough 0's after the decimal. Somewhere, a group of Chimpanzees are attempting to type the collected works of Shakespeare,and they have better odds of succeeding than rolling 0% in 8 turns.

What's worse, I was playing against Hermann.

I hope this marks the low point of my carreer. At this point I figure I'm either due for a promotion or else I'm going to join my brethern up the river in the heart of darkness.

Which gives me a idea. If you can top this by being more unlucky, I will call the award the "Heart of Darkness" medal, for luck below and beneath the call of duty.

 http://i1270.photobucket.com/albums/jj613/jamesherrell/HeartofDarknessmedal_zps91ea0e50.png

Good (rather 'bad') luck!

Humbly,

(un) Lucky Duck
      
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