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Wildfire2099
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TTR Ratings distribution Fri, 23 September 2005 19:59
Hi guys...
I just figured out how to get around the rankings list easily, so a complied the following info on the rankings... its all based on today at abour 1:15, first some idea of the distribution:

1st : 1818
20th: 1681
50th: 1640
100th: 1590
200: 1523
500: 1456
1000: 1400
1500: 1365
2000: 1339
2278: 1325 (this is the median)
2500: 1315
3000: 1291
3500: 1264
4000: 1226
4500: 1121
4557: 883

I did not include dumbot, who is at 802.
Here we have the # of player in each "hundred'

over 1800: 1
1701-1800: 13
1601-1700: 77
1501-1600: 195
1401-1500: 725
1301-1400: 1823
1201-1300: 1399
1101-1200 : 290
1001-1100: 24
901-1000: 7
801-900: 1


Its interesting that the ratings are a bit skewed from the standard bell curve (which is theorically how they should be), although if I used the median as one of the break points, things could be different ...

'll try to update this in a few days to see how much things change...

Let the analysis begin! (I know I'm not the only stat geek around here...)

Edit: typo pointed out by Rode Katers


[Updated on: Fri, 23 September 2005 23:30]

      
Rode katers
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Fri, 23 September 2005 21:46
I think the # of players in the 1701-1800 slot is 13 instead of 43.

For any analyses I leave the floor for the wizzkids. Cool Cool Smile

Pur,
Rode katers

[Updated on: Fri, 23 September 2005 22:07]

      
Cosmo
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Sat, 24 September 2005 07:06
Keep in mind that you're looking at established player rankings. elo also includes players who haven't played recently and provisional players, which I would expect to bring down the average a bit. Still, I'm a bit surprised 1325 is the median, I would have expected somewhere in the 1200s...
      
yaron
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Sun, 25 September 2005 00:24
Wildfire2099 wrote on Fri, 23 September 2005 20:59

Its interesting that the ratings are a bit skewed from the standard bell curve (which is theorically how they should be),


Just a little mathematical note:

There's no theoretical reason why real-life samples should behave like bell curves. Of course, statisticians like it when they do behave that way, because it makes them easier to work with...

Yaron
      
Wildfire2099
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 00:18
yaron wrote on Sat, 24 September 2005 18:24

Wildfire2099 wrote on Fri, 23 September 2005 20:59

Its interesting that the ratings are a bit skewed from the standard bell curve (which is theorically how they should be),


Just a little mathematical note:

There's no theoretical reason why real-life samples should behave like bell curves. Of course, statisticians like it when they do behave that way, because it makes them easier to work with...

Yaron


Yeah, you got a point there... but bell curves are NICE Wink

what I'm really interested in myself is whether or not there is any "drift" in the ratings as a whole.. I feel like the top 100 ratings have gotten higher in the last few weeks, and I wonder if its a cyclical thing or a trend...


      
gwen
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 07:18
It might be a trend, because in the spring of this year (april-may), with 1600 points you were ranked somewhere between 50 and 60. Today you're ranked around 90 with the same amount of points.

Gwen
      
SMP-bassie
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 10:41
To me, it looks like players ranked 20-500 have gotten stronger. This might have been caused partly by the Nations' Cup when captains organise training sessions for their teams. I really think it has become harder to beat opponents ranked 20-500 than before; the shape of the curve changed. We have more people now with ratings over 1600 (In March, I was 42th with 1567 points!), and fewer people with ratings over 1700. After my all time high of 1779 my ranking dropped to 1715, went up again, dropped to 1707, and is back at 1723 now. It seems almost impossible to get back to 1750. I think this is because of the stronger competition. Which is good for the game, of course.

By the way, I personally think that there is no reason to believe that ratings of guests, provisionals, and inactive players would follow a different distribution, but it might smoothen the curve a bit to add them, just because we would have more observations, then.
      
kotay
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 13:33
What do you all have with points ... this is just a game and let just have fun whatever you ranking is Cool , last wekk a had 1620 points, with a ranking of about 70, and now I m back to 1733 with the ranking of 6th ... so stop watching your ranking, and have fun Razz because I really find sad that now some players ( i wont cite them) are coming in may game because I m 6th, and when I was 70th they would have never play with me Evil or Very Mad

Cu soon on a multiplayer game folks and lets have fun , forget your points and ranking Cool

[Updated on: Mon, 26 September 2005 13:34]

      
OLE rudi
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 14:30
Hi,

Cosmo schrieb am Sat, 24 September 2005 07:06

Keep in mind that you're looking at established player rankings. elo also includes players who haven't played recently and provisional players, which I would expect to bring down the average a bit. Still, I'm a bit surprised 1325 is the median, I would have expected somewhere in the 1200s...



and guests. We only can speclulate where they are ranked, though I think they would bring down the average as well. There are some very high ranked accounts who didn't play for a while (see severeall cheaters debates).

BTW. how do you get around the ranking list easily? I really would like an export to cvs-file funktion.

Regards,

rudi
      
SKMorefield
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 15:05
bassie wrote on Mon, 26 September 2005 04:41

To me, it looks like players ranked 20-500 have gotten stronger. This might have been caused partly by the Nations' Cup when captains organise training sessions for their teams. I really think it has become harder to beat opponents ranked 20-500 than before; the shape of the curve changed. We have more people now with ratings over 1600 (In March, I was 42th with 1567 points!), and fewer people with ratings over 1700. After my all time high of 1779 my ranking dropped to 1715, went up again, dropped to 1707, and is back at 1723 now. It seems almost impossible to get back to 1750. I think this is because of the stronger competition. Which is good for the game, of course.

By the way, I personally think that there is no reason to believe that ratings of guests, provisionals, and inactive players would follow a different distribution, but it might smoothen the curve a bit to add them, just because we would have more observations, then.



Funny, but I was planning on making this very observation this morning when reading this thread. You read my mind! Cool

To expand on your points... I think, while it's true there are more 1600+ players, I think there are less 1700 and even more rarely an 1800+. Whitetrain sits at 1820 but used to be higher than that. Pilke and thekid used to be 1800+ and are no longer so high. I think what we are seeing is a gradual shift toward the middle of an ever-widening 'bell curve' of strong players.

More and more people are learning the 'secrets' and winning techniques to this game. No longer is a win over a 1400+ player 'assumed.' Now granted, I rarely if ever play someone ranked below 1000, but lately it seems like each and every game I play is a dogfight, even against someone ranked 1420! The field is getting stronger!! Shocked

For me, the impossible mark is 1700. I vary between 1620 and (my high point) 1697, although I have spent a good deal of time on the higher end. I'm sure my true rank for now is somewhere in the middle, but historically I ALWAYS play on streaks. I will climb to a point, then lose, and not only lose, lose a LOT, to reach a low point, then start climbing back up again. But it's not just me. Look at other regular top 20s who are at present ranked lower... womble, Razamanaz, thadd, Optimus, leachris, yaron, and others, not to mention thekid and Pilke's decline below 1800. It is becoming harder, unless you sharply limit who and when you play (as clearly some top players seem to do, not that there is anything wrong with that!!), to stay ranked at a set point.


Best,
SKM
      
SMP-bassie
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 15:28
kotay - Gewürztraminer wrote on Mon, 26 September 2005 13:33

What do you all have with points ...

Well first of all, this thread is devoted to all statistics morons and as you might know, these people dream about numbers about 24 hours a day... Wink

Second, read erps's signature line Laughing

Third, I can understand it if players rather play high-ranked opponents. If you don't know anything about someone, the only guideline is his rank. And (hey! this is a statistics thread Wink) most people assume a positive correlation between rank and skill. The better my opponent, the more interesting my game will be. And that is what it is all about. I want an interesting game! As soon I you know someone, I know if I can play interesting games against him/her. At that point rank doesn't matter that much anymore. To me, anyway.

As for you, it looks like most people know you by now. You are a nightmare to many (including me Sad), regardless if you are at 70th or 6th place... Until now, I think every game I played against you has been very interesting, especially because I lost all but one. I'd gladly play against you anytime, regardless of your rank!

[Updated on: Mon, 26 September 2005 15:37]

      
Wildfire2099
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 17:11
I agree that it seems the top scores (after the top 20) seem to be going up.. when I first cracked the top 100 it was at 1560 something, now you need 15-20 more points... also, I was, about a month ago at #40 with 1636... 1636 not puts you in the 50s... we'll have to see if it continues.

      
thekid
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 18:05
I think it is extremely hard to be an outlier as White Train is and I used to be. To play anyone over 50 points away he must win 5 of 8. 100 points needs 6 of 8 just to stay even. Very hard to do. And since everyone wants to play and beat you, and will surely give their best game, you must be up every game. The mental concentration needed to sustain such a pace when playing a lot is staggering. I used to enjoy smacking back all comers trying to take away what was mine.

Kotay - the higher you go the more you will get requests. Especially now with the buddy list, people can put all the top people on their list and ask for games instead of having to scroll through the list. That is the one part of the buddy list I do not like. Too many requests from lowly ranked people.

I have been surprised with the rising rankings that more people haven't risen into the 1800's and that no one has surpassed my high score.

For me (and probably pilke too), the time I took off from playing has caused a serious deterioration in my game. I make a lot of mistakes. Ticket fiends get through, I miss blocks, am a turn too late in taking a key route, forget to connect a city (did that the other day), lose longest route (I never used to do that), misread where the other person is going and lose by one because Sault St. Marie to Okla City is 9 points on ticket instead of what it should be 8. I have been losing in every conceivable way. This is a game where you need to play a lot every day or you get rusty.

      
onyx puffin
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 18:18
besides players perhaps getting better, isn't the number of games we play also a factor in trying to move up?
It seems I get less and less points wih wins, and really get smacked down in a loss.
I, like thekid and kotay will play many times for fun against whoever signs into our games. However, Kotay, I also will not play 4 player games with this account. A second place is too damaging. It is why I started onyx 4 player account. I would still love to see seperate rankings for 4/5 games and 2/3 games. They are so totally different strategies. IN 4/5 player, completing the tickets means more and adds to the fun.
      
TuS WhiteTrain
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 19:24
Hi all, interesting thread. As far as i see it the average skill level is rising, so that there are almost no easy wins any more. You have to stay concentrated even against players which are not ranked in the first 500. I lost to Torsten, who is ranked somewhere around 45, in the last NC-round and even i made no big mistakes(i decided not to block once, which turned out to be wrong), i was without a chance in those games. I lost a 22 points overall in this 5 games, which will make your highscore last at least for some more weeks kid. I made it up to 1843 so i was just 7 points short of my final target to set another alltime-high.
I will try again after my vacation, but this will be not before the 7th of October. On the other hand i think if i dont finish this task quick, there will be no chance to finish it at all, because i think at the end of the year there will be no 1800 players anymore and i wouldnt be surprised if 1750 would be enough for holding the first place.
      
yaron
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 19:32
thekid wrote on Mon, 26 September 2005 19:05

To play anyone over 50 points away he must win 5 of 8. 100 points needs 6 of 8 just to stay even.


Actually, the numbers are almost twice that:

With a 90 point difference, you need to win 5 of 8, and with a 190 point difference, 6 of 8.

Which is not to say it's easy...
      
thekid
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 20:16
You are right yaron. I forgot that pilke had done an analysis showing the exact points won an lost up to a 700 point difference. And I forgot that I had worked it out to win percentage needed just to stay even. I'm even making mistakes here. Thekid is definitely not theman anymore. But if I ever remember how to play watch out. Here is that chart again:

0-------50.0%

50------57.1%

100-----64.0%

150-----70.4%

200-----76.0%

250-----80.9%

300-----84.9%

350-----88.3%

400-----90.9%

450-----93.0%

500-----94.6%

550-----96.0%

600-----96.9%

650-----97.6%

700-----98.3%

White Train with the people's score gradually rising, eventually there will be more people in the 1800's and then 1900 will not be out of the realm of possibility. At least that's what I think.
      
TuS WhiteTrain
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 20:28
Kid may be you are right, for the moment there are fewer 1700s and 1800s than any time else this year , maybe its because as far as i see it, there is only "delay" who doesnt belong there, all other cheaters dropped out and there are no more double accounts as far as i know except Angel, but the zone of 1600-1700 is getting more dense.
Time will tell if 1900 is possible

[Updated on: Mon, 26 September 2005 20:44]

      
SKMorefield
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 26 September 2005 22:53
WhiteTrain wrote on Mon, 26 September 2005 14:28

Kid may be you are right, for the moment there are fewer 1700s and 1800s than any time else this year , maybe its because as far as i see it, there is only "delay" who doesnt belong there, all other cheaters dropped out and there are no more double accounts as far as i know except Angel, but the zone of 1600-1700 is getting more dense.
Time will tell if 1900 is possible




Yes, the lower-upper echelon and the upper-upper echelons are starting to gravitate toward the middle. With so many top 100s playing each other more and more exclusively, and lots of other people outside the top 100 getting better and better, the points will cannibalize each other, keeping people who play regularly from breaking 1800. I agree with Whitetrain here. Even now, at some parts in the ranking, one loss can cost not only points but several spots as well.
      
Wildfire2099
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Tue, 27 September 2005 05:00
rudi69 wrote on Mon, 26 September 2005 08:30

Hi,

Cosmo schrieb am Sat, 24 September 2005 07:06

Keep in mind that you're looking at established player rankings. elo also includes players who haven't played recently and provisional players, which I would expect to bring down the average a bit. Still, I'm a bit surprised 1325 is the median, I would have expected somewhere in the 1200s...



and guests. We only can speclulate where they are ranked, though I think they would bring down the average as well. There are some very high ranked accounts who didn't play for a while (see severeall cheaters debates).

BTW. how do you get around the ranking list easily? I really would like an export to cvs-file funktion.

Regards,

rudi



I'm not sure if you can export but here's the trick...

go to the second page of the ranking... as part of the page address (about in the middle) it says "start player=20"... you can change the "20" to any number you wish, and it will give you the 20 players starting with the number you put in.


      
Wildfire2099
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Tue, 27 September 2005 05:05
I disagree with you guys... I think parity is coming to TTR... for a while there were 3 or 4 in the 1800s, and several in the high 1700s... now, there are far less there, but far more in the 1600s... I think we'll see more parity in the coming weeks...either way, It'll be interesting Smile

to Kotay:

I enjoy the game quite a bit (as you can tell from how much I play) the ratings are icing on the cake for me, I love stats.. numbers just make me happy...

Notice we're talking about the site as a whole not "geez I wish they people would go away so I could be higher"

And for the record, I play against ANYONE... I usualy just open a game and see who happens by... I resent you implication of snobbery.. especially since I've played with you in 4 player games on a few occasions, including one right around when you posted...

      
Wildfire2099
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Fri, 30 September 2005 03:52
Here this stats for this week (I did it at night rather than during the day so things wouldn't be changing while I checked them as much)


1st : 1820 (+2)
20th: 1682 (+1)
50th: 1648 (+8)
100th: 1590 (-)
200: 1523 (-1)
500: 1456 (-1)
1000: 1400 (-)
1500: 1365 (+1)
2000: 1338 (-1)
2280: 1324 (-1) (this is the median)
2500: 1315 (+1)
3000: 1290 (-1)
3500: 1262 (-2)
4000: 1227 (-1)
4500: 1127 (+7)
4559: 877 (-6)

over 1800: 1 (-)
1701-1800: 15 (+2)
1601-1700: 72 (-5)
1501-1600: 202 (+7)
1401-1500: 710 (-15)
1301-1400: 1810 (-13)
1201-1300: 1425 (+26)
1101-1200 : 288 (-2)
1001-1100: 28 (+4)
901-1000: 7
801-900: 1

Here they are... not that much changed over a week... I thought there would be more variation... any thoughts?


      
grolapinos
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Fri, 30 September 2005 09:29
I also tried a little statistical study a few months agos, and I realized that it was difficult, because we have no information about the guests.

I don't think guests' scores are distributed the same way as non-guests'. In particular, I think adding guests would change the median of the general distribution.

Anyway, you still can make some statistics. Here is one I give to you :

In april, the median of the non guests' scores was 1327.
In june, it was 1354.
Today, it's back to 1324.

If someone has an explanation, I am deeply interested. Personnally, I have none.

For French speaking people, some more math here.
      
Wildfire2099
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Wed, 12 October 2005 05:47
I skipped a bit to see if things would move more... here are the ratings distribution as of a few minutes ago:

1st : 1791 (-29)
20th: 1688 (-6)
50th: 1644 (-4)
100th: 1600 (+10)
200: 1533 (+10)
500: 1458 (+2)
1000: 1400 (-)
1500: 1365 (-)
2000: 1339 (+1)
2315: 1322 (-2) (this is the median)
2500: 1314 (-1)
3000: 1291 (+1)
3500: 1265 (+3)
4000: 1230 (+3)
4500: 1159 (+32)
4630: 916 (+39)

over 1800: 0 (-1)
1701-1800: 13 (-2)
1601-1700: 85 (+13)
1501-1600: 195 (-7)
1401-1500: 701 (-9)
1301-1400: 1821 (+11)
1201-1300: 1469 (+44)
1101-1200 : 315 (+27)
1001-1100: 24 (-4)
901-1000: 7 (-)
801-900: 0 (-1)


There's a big jump in rated players (71).. which accounts for the increases in the lower bands.

There was definately some bunching up in the top 200... time will tell if my parity theory is right or if its a fluke (I suspect it may also have to do with nations cup, which is causing more top rated players to play each other)
This is the lowest rating I've seen #1 at in my 4 months or so here.

Also of note... the new bots are WAY higher than dumbot used to be... dumbot himself has picked up about 200 points... the new ones are sorta scattered about the original... I'd like to say that DoW's last upgrade was definately an upgrade (there are a few players rated below dumbot... not many, but more than the 0 before)..the only other possibility is that with more than one bot, they're beating each other in multi games and getting points that way... I didn't look through the histories to see.

      
Optimus
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Fri, 28 October 2005 11:09
grolapinos - Médoc schrieb am Fri, 30 September 2005 09:29


In april, the median of the non guests' scores was 1327.
In june, it was 1354.
Today, it's back to 1324.


You can find the same undulation in the top 20's. The needed score to be No 20 went from 1665 up to 1700+ and then back down to 1665. Then it raised again to 1700+ just to drop down to 1660 again. At the moment it's moving back up (1690 pts needed right now). I wonder why. Confused
      
Wildfire2099
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Wed, 16 November 2005 05:09
My last check on the stats was about 5 weeks ago.. lets see how things are goin now...


1st : 1811 (+20)
20th: 1696 (+8)
50th: 1653 (+9)
100th: 1604 (+4)
200: 1534 (+1)
500: 1459 (+1)
1000: 1399 (-1)
1500: 1365 (-)
2000: 1335 (-4)
2433: 1317 (-7) (this is the median)
2500: 1314 (-)
3000: 1291 (-)
3500: 1267 (+2)
4000: 1242 (+12)
4500: 1199 (+40)
4865: 805 (-111)

over 1800: 2 (+2)
1701-1800: 16 (+3)
1601-1700: 88 (+3)
1501-1600: 201 (+6)
1401-1500: 671 (-30)
1301-1400: 1807 (-14)
1201-1300: 1703 (+234)
1101-1200 : 348 (+33)
1001-1100: 23 (-1)
901-1000: 4 (-3)
801-900: 2 (+1)


TTR must be excited.. over 200 new players that have played 20+ games in the last 5 weeks. I'm betting a HUGE bump once the PC game is released.

As for the stats, as one would expect, the new players are mostly rated around where you start.. the top and bottom of the distribution spread back out, after bunching up last time. I find the consistency of the thing very suprising, even with the increasing pool, the rating at each 500 spots is very consistent.


Comments?
      
TuS WhiteTrain
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Tue, 29 November 2005 16:52
WhiteTrain schrieb am Mon, 26 September 2005 19:24

On the other hand i think if i dont finish this task quick, there will be no chance to finish it at all, because i think at the end of the year there will be no 1800 players anymore and i wouldnt be surprised if 1750 would be enough for holding the first place.



So we presently have no 1800 players anymore. Ok, i doubt we will all fall below 1750 by the end of the year, maybe it takes some more months.
      
thekid
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Tue, 29 November 2005 16:57
I think the overall trend will still be higher. I'm not playing enough to be great anymore. But I think with more people coming in after Christmas they will give up their points to the established players which will cause the top to rise. I still think 1900 will be achieved by the end of next year. It will be interesting to see.
      
Wildfire2099
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Re:TTR Ratings distribution Tue, 13 December 2005 17:55
Hi Guys --

I didn't feel like working yet, so I thought I'd do an update, since the top 100 at least seems different... I have put in two different changes after each, the 1st is the change since last time (about 1 month) and the 2nd is the change since the 1st time I checked this....(in Sept.)

1st: 1800 (-11) (-18) - 1800 seems to be the magic number lately... no one has been able to keep it for long
20th: 1707 (+11) (+26)
50th: 1660 (+7) (+20)
100th: 1612 (+8) (+22) - The top hundred has definately gotten a lot harder to crack, and there are less big gaps between spaces.. I suspect NC has a lot to do with this.. it will be interesting to see if things space back out in the weeks ahead
200: 1538 (+4) (+15)
500: 1458 (-1) (+2)
1000:1397 (-1) (-3)
1500: 1360 (-5) (-5)
2000: 1333 (-2) (-6)
2444: 1313 (-4) (-12) fl The median has defintely come down... however its mostly a factor of new people coming on, and still being on the low end... the ranking where the median was is actually only down 4.
2500: 1310 (-4) (-5)
3000: 1288 (-3) (-3)
3500: 1266 (-1) (+2)
4000: 1240 (-2) (+14)
4500: 1196 (-3) (+75)
4887: 909 (+104) (+26) - It is definitely counter-intuitive that these lower groups have dropped, when there are about 300 additional players.
Only 16 more rated players this time from last time... so the bump is complete.
I suspect we may seen another jump right after Christmas, then another when the PC game comes out in the US though.

(Note: I did not include the bottom person (who is at 597).. their history is screwy, so I suspect it may be either a mess up or a broken account of some sort)

And for the Distribution:

Over 1800: 0 (-2) (-1)
1701-1800: 21 (+5) (+8)
1601-1700: 89 (+1) (+12)
1501-1600: 184 (-17) (-11) <-- This is a surprising one!
1401-1500: 665 (-6) (-60) <--Wow! Looks like the middle is spreading out while the top is tightening up
1301-1400: 1763 (-44) (-60)
1201-1300: 1750 (+47) ( +351) <-- This seems to be where the newbies are....
1101-1200: 377 (+29) (+87)
1001-1100: 33 (+10) (+9)
901-1000: 5 (+1) (-2)


Thoughts?
      
SMP-bassie
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January 2005
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Wed, 14 December 2005 08:10
Nice stats again, Wildfire...

Why do we have a forum anyway? Why do the devs spend their precious time on whining, bragging, annoying and demanding top players? Over 70% of the paying customers is 1200-1400! They never cause any trouble whatsoever! No forum entries other than 'How to use stations?' 'What is karma?' 'Where can I buy the PC game?' They never need any extra attention... they just come out and play...

What is it, DoW, that you still put up with us, merely 2% of the paying customers?
      
TuS WhiteTrain
Senior Member
T2R Nation Cup 2011 Winner

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December 2004
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Wed, 14 December 2005 12:21
Hi Wildfire,
i like those statistics a lot, tks for making them.
I think the Nation Cup improved the skills of the players who participated, maybe even some, who just watched the games or watched "erps" recordings. Thats my reason for the higher number of 1600 and 1700s(for example "youki" established himself in the Top 20 coming from under 1600 before the NC). But to improve your rating the points have to come from somewhere, so beside the 50 points i am missing since the cup started, i suspect the prefered hunting area is between 1400-1600. As for me, i can say that i dont play any players lower than 1400 because i would have to play an average of winning more than 90% of the games to keep my rating steady. But this is not possible because almost all of them tend to ticketfiend strategy and more than 10% are lucky Laughing.

Maybe there are some other theories Confused

White

[Updated on: Wed, 14 December 2005 12:22]

      
Wildfire2099
Senior Member

Posts: 654
Registered:
June 2005
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Wed, 14 December 2005 20:44
bassie wrote on Wed, 14 December 2005 02:10

Nice stats again, Wildfire...

Why do we have a forum anyway? Why do the devs spend their precious time on whining, bragging, annoying and demanding top players? Over 70% of the paying customers is 1200-1400! They never cause any trouble whatsoever! No forum entries other than 'How to use stations?' 'What is karma?' 'Where can I buy the PC game?' They never need any extra attention... they just come out and play...

What is it, DoW, that you still put up with us, merely 2% of the paying customers?



SHHHHH!

They'll hear you. Wink

Seriously, I've often wondered this (DoW are not the only ones to cater to the vocal minority).. I guess they figure those of us at the top will go out and spread the gospel the is TTR if we get what we want...


      
Wildfire2099
Senior Member

Posts: 654
Registered:
June 2005
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Wed, 14 December 2005 20:49
Hi White --

I was kinda thinking a lot of the increase was due simply to good players coming on line (like Charly Brown, I assume he's decent at the regular map and not just taking advantage of those trying out switerland), but your theory makes more sense given the stats...

Its interesting to think that there aren't that many new to on'line TTR that hit towards the high end of the ratings, you'd think (or at I would think) there would be.


What I would really like to know is how the ratings of guests compare to those of registered players.. I suspect the high end would be missing, but OTOH I've played some really stong gets and got 3 points for beating them (implying a rating of close to 1500, if not over) so I wonder...

Edit: In a very timely manner, I just player a guest names qwert, who, upon loseing, gave me a hefty 5!!!!! points (therefore implying a rating reasonably above my 1625)

Go Figure....

[Updated on: Wed, 14 December 2005 21:38]

      
Rolli
Senior Member

Posts: 510
Registered:
May 2005
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Sat, 31 December 2005 17:12
Hi everyone,

today I had a lot of time, so I made a new list...

Rank----------------Points--------------(+/-)
1st-----------------1800----------------(+00)
20th----------------1692----------------(-15)
50th----------------1655----------------(-05)
100th---------------1603----------------(-09)
200th---------------1538----------------(+00)
500th---------------1452----------------(-06)
1000th--------------1395----------------(-02)
1500th--------------1361----------------(+01)
2000th--------------1334----------------(+01)
2500th--------------1312----------------(+02)
2625th--------------1308(median)--------(-02)
3000th--------------1292----------------(+04)
3500th--------------1272----------------(+06)
4000th--------------1250----------------(+10)
4500th--------------1223----------------(+27)
5000th--------------1175----------------(new)
5284th---------------969----------------(+60)

Points--------------People--------------(+/-)
over 1800-------------0-----------------(+00)
1701-1800------------18-----------------(-03)
1601-1700------------84-----------------(-05)
1501-1600-----------179-----------------(-05)
1401-1500-----------638-----------------(-27)
1301-1400----------1881----------------(+118)
1201-1300----------1968----------------(+218)
1101-1200-----------467-----------------(+90)
1001-1100------------36-----------------(+03)
0900-1000-------------3-----------------(-02)

The Bots:

Bot----------------Points--------------Rank
LongBot-------------1098---------------5245
DumbBot-------------1009---------------5279
NebulusBot----------1008---------------5280
DirectBot------------971---------------5283

New players:

I can say you happy that there are 397 new players in the rankink-list !

A happy new year, 2006 !

Greetings

Rolli

[Updated on: Sat, 31 December 2005 18:21]

      
Wildfire2099
Senior Member

Posts: 654
Registered:
June 2005
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Mon, 02 January 2006 04:34
Wow, guess TTR was a popular Christmas Present...

the new additions are still at the lower end of the ratings though... here's to hoping we have some new blood at the higher up soon Smile

      
Wildfire2099
Senior Member

Posts: 654
Registered:
June 2005
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Wed, 18 January 2006 21:21
And now for today's update... including a lot of Christmas players...


Rank----------------Points--------------(+/-)
1st-----------------1813----------------(+13)
20th----------------1709----------------(+17)
50th----------------1662----------------(+7)
100th---------------1603----------------(-)
200th---------------1537----------------(-1)
500th---------------1456----------------(+4)
1000th--------------1399----------------(+4)
1500th--------------1363----------------(+2)
2000th--------------1338----------------(+04)
2500th--------------1317----------------(+05)
2988th--------------1298(median)--------(-10)
3000th--------------1298----------------(+06)
3500th--------------1281----------------(+09)
4000th--------------1265----------------(+15)
4500th--------------1245----------------(+22)
5000th--------------1223----------------(+38)
5500th---------------1190----------------(new)
5977th---------------925----------------(-43)

Wow! Over 700 new players!!!

Points--------------People--------------(+/-)
over 1800-------------2-----------------(+02)
1701-1800------------24-----------------(+6)
1601-1700------------79-----------------(-05)
1501-1600-----------186-----------------(+7)
1401-1500-----------696-----------------(+58)
1301-1400----------1942----------------(+61)
1201-1300----------2422----------------(+454)
1101-1200-----------593-----------------(+126)
1001-1100------------29-----------------(-7)
0900-1000-------------5-----------------(+2)

It looks like the new players (over 1000 since the fall) are starting to move up, either via learning or playing enough to get to their "True" ranking.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the player pool in the coming weeks... it could be we lose players as people who go the game for Christmas lose interest, or perhaps the PC game and some increased US exposure will keep the upward trend going..
      
Cosmo
Member

Posts: 64
Registered:
October 2004
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Fri, 27 January 2006 06:57
I was wondering how number of games played affects a person's rating, turns out the answer is 0.40.

I ran player ratings & games played through Excel, correlation between the two numbers is 0.40. I'm not a statistician, but I would call that a weak correlation -- playing more games has some effect, but not a lot, on rating. Average 1300-rated player played about 400 games, average 1600-rated player played about 2000, but people were all over the map...

Also got a few quick numbers on the ratings themselves -- average (mean) rating is 1311, median is 1298, standard deviation is 101. So the very top players are about five standard deviations above average. Eyeballing it, the distribution looks roughly bell-shaped, but it can't be perfectly so since that would predict only half a person had a rating higher than 1700. Smile
      
Wildfire2099
Senior Member

Posts: 654
Registered:
June 2005
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Fri, 27 January 2006 19:57
intresting stuff cosmo..

I suspect if we took the time to graph it.. we'd get a fairly regular but skewed bell curve... maybe next time i'm in a stat-y kinda of mood.

I'd suprised about the correlation between games and rating I'd have thought that would be higher.

      
Cosmo
Member

Posts: 64
Registered:
October 2004
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Sat, 28 January 2006 06:28
Well, the curve is certainly a little lopsided -- there's almost no one rated under 1000, but quite a few players over 1600...
      
SMP-bassie
Senior Member

Posts: 494
Registered:
January 2005
Re:TTR Ratings distribution Wed, 08 February 2006 12:10
And now it looks like the top-10 to top-15 got stronger, whereas fewer people have a rating over 1600. Wonder how that came about...
      
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