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HamonSerrano
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RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 16:01
Dear M44 fans!

I started this topic to share my Memoir 44 experience with you.

In every board game which uses dice, there is a big role for luck. Drawing cards randomly is the same.
I like to play board games, and i like to win. I am a competitive person. My goal is always victory, but i always

appreciate an excellent opponent too! Smile

I don't like that luck has a big role in this M44 game. This is a historical strategic game. Every player accept the

historical odds of allied/axis side. We can replay the historical battles. Sometimes we can rewrite history by

changing the end of the battles. If two players who has approximately the same strategic skills play against each

other, they often play a draw (1-1 win each). Or they should, but luck decides other.
I would enjoy this game more, if my results would show more strategic skills instead of my "luck-meter". That's why i

started to look after the mathematical side of M44. There are other posts, where you wrote about how many % chance do

you have in certain situations, when you roll the dice.
I don't want repeat that. I just want to share my experience in this topic, if you are interested.

Lot of players start a battle with the expression: "Good luck". I don't like to use this. I often wrote them back,

that i hope not luck will decide! And i really mean this serious! Smile

As some of you already realized my favourite scenario is Red Barricades Factory (later as "RBF"). This is not a

coincidence.

I found the RBF scenario ideal for my measuring test. Most of the scenarios are too short to beat your bad luck with

strategic skills. It is a long battle. You need to collect 10 medals to win.
Compare to other maps, where you have to collect only 4-5 medals to win a scenario, sometimes you or your opponent

needs only several turns (less than 10) to fulfil this goal. If you start with a bad hand (very few or zero useful

cards in your hand) you might not have the time, to controll the game, you can only assist to the opponent's victory.

This is not a very happy feeling. This same happens to you if you are unlucky and are able to roll only the useless

figures after and after each other. And this will lead you to another loss. One of the most annoying problems when

you feel, you could be able to win the scenario, but your cards were much worse than your opponent's cards, or you

rolled the dice worse than expected.(example infantry under 50% or armor under 33%). It happens very often. Memoir

should be a strategy game and not a gambling!

You can not controll dice rolls and drawing cards in this game. These are built-in rules! You have to accept that!

Don't forget that the opponent is challenging with the same problem.
If you fed up with having a "bad luck series" again, what can you do then? Try RBF!

Generally this map is a long one (compare to other maps). You can play 30-40 turns to reach victory, sometimes even

more. And don't imagine that as a disadvantage! No! This is a good thing. This gives you (and your opponent too) the

opportunity to think, to plan your strategy.
This map has a great variety of chances. Defending town hexes is very interesting. Moreover there is the sniper unit,

who can be a special tactical unit in your strategy. This not a hunting like Panzers vs. grants. It is not just shoot

what you can!

I know that you can not win every game! Everbody has good luck and bad luck, and it is changing all the time. But in

RBF scenario, there is a good chance to survive a bad period, and come back from an almost impossible situation.

I think the real players enjoy a close/tight game (where players have almost the same scores), even it is a loss,

more than an easy victory against a rookie!

I wanted to test this scenario and myself: Is it possible to win in more than 50% of the battles on RBF?

I wanted to play not only ten games, but more! Because it would have been a too small comprehension to get real

results. 100 games sounds much better. To play hundred games on RBF needs a lot of your free time. At the beginning,

my battles took about an hour, sometimes even more. But later it was much less, about 30 minutes in average. It

depends on several factors (Computer, internet connection, knowledge of M44, knowledge of RBF and skills of the

players). My quickest game took about 16 minutes on RBF. Good dice roll % also helps you to get early victory.

I saw that many players played more than 1000 games with M44 online. I thought that 100 game is not enough, so i

continued my test. I just reached 200 games on RBF. Most of these games had rematch battles too.
I made screenshots about the game results. I typed all the data of 200 RBF battles into an excel file.
You can say i am a little obsessed. True. I was curious. I wanted to find out is there any chance to battle with

luck? I think anybody who played at least 2 games in M44 can agree with me, that during a battle you feel that the

opponent has bigger luck than you have. But at the end, when you see the total results of the dice rolls it is not

always confirmed. why? Because generally everybody is focusing on his/her side, and we all have a tendency to think

about ourselves first.

I wanted to get proof of the numbers. I wanted to know that luck will make it equal sometime, or not?
I collected the results of 200 games, to see, what are the real chances of dice rolling?

Are you interested too?

Here are my numbers:

Number of battles on RBF: 200
Number of total dice rolls: 27073

figures:
9097 (33,60%) - infantry
4518 (16,69%) - armor
4449 (16,43%) - grenade
4526 (16,72%) - flag
4483 (16,56%) - star

Average dice roll / battle: 135,365

We can say, that more than 27 thousand dice rolls is huge number. I know that mathematically this is still far away

from infinity Smile But this is a good sign for me. Be patient, and luck will change. You will get the results what you

need, just be patient. Be ready!

I have more details, but i keep them as a secret for a while. If you read this post (quite a long one), and you are

still interested in the topic, write me back your opinion.

Until you get my response, play RBF! And don't let Luck to decide your games! Smile

Thanks!
HamonSerrano

[Updated on: Thu, 24 November 2011 19:14]

      
clexton27
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 16:26
Thank you HamonSerrano for both your research and patience.

I have also played some of the same scenarios many many times. I think I have played OPERATION COBRA about 500 times. There is a distinct advantage you gain from doing this. You feel you know most of the tactical options and you have seen many, many, many strategies. You learn the terrain like the back of your hand. And believe it or not, I find I enjoy the game even more than when I started.

Your particular findings on the dice rolls shows what DOW has always said; that the dice are neutral. I appreciate ALL your effort and your willingness to share those figures.

Quote:

Number of battles on RBF: 200
Number of total dice rolls: 27073

figures:
9097 (33,60%) - infantry
4518 (16,69%) - armor
4449 (16,43%) - grenade
4526 (16,72%) - flag
4483 (16,56%) - star


I look forward to playing you someday, but I know that you will ALWAYS have the home field advantage on RED BARRICADES FACTORY.

Very Happy

[Updated on: Thu, 24 November 2011 16:33]

      
sam1812
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 16:40
Harmon, you raise some interesting questions here. And I am impressed by your dedication to this research.

When M-Online first came out, a number of people questioned whether the dice were truly random. Yann published percentages from the first several million die rolls, and it was almost perfectly 1/6 per side. DoW has also stated that the die-rolling program doesn't know what player it is rolling for or what the target is, so it doesn't favor one side or the other. (Based on the apparent frequency of uncommon hit rates, there may be a question about whether the rolls are somehow streakier than they should be. To the best of my knowledge, nobody has ever applied statistical randomness tests to the pseudo-randomly generated die rolls.)

I just finished reading a fascinating book about American baseball. (The name of the book is "Moneyball," and it was released as a movie recently.) According to the book, analysts have determined that skill accounts for an average of about 1 "run" per game in Major League Baseball, while luck accounts for an average of about 3 runs per game. (I'm sure the analysts used a specific definition of "luck," but let's not dissect that for present purposes.) Since the season is 162 games long, this all averages out, and the best team in baseball wins about 63% of its games, while the worst team loses a similar percentage, or maybe a little more. On any given day, the worst team in the league can beat the best team.

Similarly, in Memoir, you can do all the right things and get destroyed by freakish dice. But on average, a strong player may beat a weak player 75% of the time -- or more, depending on the choice of scenarios. Based on my observations of 2000 games, I believe that Memoir is about 70%-75% skill, and 25%-30% luck. That's okay with me, and some of my best Memoir stories involve either amazing comebacks or shocking losses that came out of nowhere.

I tell people that in Memoir, we have to be willing to live with the luck of the cards and dice, or else we should be playing chess. But even tournament chess players shake hands before a game and wish each other "Good luck."
      
Nightrain
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 17:24
Dear Hamon,

that's an impressive test and before you even started the test, some of us has realized that in M44, luck plays an important role but the better player always has the bigger odds of winning because of his good card management and strategy, however bigger odds means that you still have the chance to lose due to bad luck, and it happens in real life too.

I'm not a history expert, CMIIW, but I believe two decisive factors of World War 2 are The Battle of Midway and Stalingrad, and both have been cited as a 'luck factor victory' for the Allies. Midway because Allies Naval is lucky to discover Japan's position first and able to attack first, and Stalingrad because of the luck of the severe weather in favor of the Russians. If that doesn't happen, there's a chance that Japan and German won't be defeated so easily in the war.

But nevertheless, good statistic and effort, kudos friend, so after that research was over, hopefully you'll be able to play another maps lol
      
Helcat
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 17:33
A very thorough research Hamon, which proves again that the dices do what the dices have to do. As I already axpected. I wish my opponent Good Luck too; I have to say, that is a formality, although genuinely expressed. I do agree with you that skill is the deciding factor when playing more games and that if you have studied a scenario very well, or if you have a feel for the game you outperform the odds for a scanario. I do also agree with you that scenarios like red barricades give more opportunities to skilled players than a tank battle in the desert although even in these battles both skill and luck are involved.
      
rasmussen81
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 20:06
Thanks for sharing your insights! It is nice to have an outside confirmation that the dice system is indeed random, like DoW has been saying from the start. Smile

I enjoy RBF as well and I think it's for the same reason; you have a chance to work your way back to a victory even if you find yourself down a few medals. When Breakthrough Maps are added to Memoir '44 Online, I think you'll really enjoy how large the battles are and how many medals they take to win. Unlike regular battles, the Breakthrough system gives you the time and space to really maneuver around the board and I think you'll find that it favors the skillful players very much like RBF does! Cool
      
hdescavernes
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 20:15
rasmussen81 écrit le Thu, 24 November 2011 20:06

It is nice to have an outside confirmation that the dice system is indeed random, like DoW has been saying from the start


Us french have been blessed with Praxeo's guide, which does exactly that too Smile

I hope its translation is nearing completion !
      
rasmussen81
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 20:25
hdescavernes wrote on Thu, 24 November 2011 23:15

rasmussen81 écrit le Thu, 24 November 2011 20:06

It is nice to have an outside confirmation that the dice system is indeed random, like DoW has been saying from the start


Us french have been blessed with Praxeo's guide, which does exactly that too Smile

I hope its translation is nearing completion !


No, I'm talking about the Online game here...from my understanding (I have a copy of the book in French but unfortunately don't know your beautiful language) his book deals with the probability of rolling certain results. But several players have questioned whether the dice rolling mechanism for Memoir '44 Online is actually random.

They suspect that the system actually gives better results to the losing team or the underdog so that people feel like it's more even. DoW has assured us several times (and with numerical evidence) that the dice-rolling part of the program is indeed random and is not linked to the game so that it would know who to 'cheat' for.

HamonSerrano confirms with his data that the dice-rolling is indeed random. Smile
      
Quit2
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 20:28
I have two things to add:

- When I say good luck to the opponent, I mean I don't want him to have exceptionally bad luck, either with cards or dice.
If we both have the same luckm it comes down to skill, and that is indeed what I prefer.
Exactly for that reason, I like RBF too.

- That is also why I like Breakthrough alot. And I hope breakthrough makes his way to M44 OL soon.
With breakthrough, scenario's take a bit longer. They are in fact a series of smaller games in one (like first you land on the beach, and then you move onwards to invade the hinterland).
There is enough time for the luck to turn a few times during a breakthrough scenario, and therefor skill plays a bigger roll.
      
Phread
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 22:15
At the beginning of (some) games I wish my opponent "Good luck - but not too much."

I say this partly in jest, but partly seriously because if one's opponent (or indeed oneself) has too much good luck the the game may be won by the luckiest player not the most skilful.
      
hdescavernes
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 22:32
rasmussen81 écrit le Thu, 24 November 2011 20:25

No, I'm talking about the Online game here...


I'm pretty sure he says in his book that he did also play a lot online and verified this also.

One might also argue that real life dice are not random either, given that you usually pick up the dice in a fixed position (of course some players will shake them before rolling) and that being manufactured they can't be exactly 1/6 for each face either.

It's true that the online game dice are pseudo-random, but I'm completely satisfied with DoW numbers, and even before that their word on that sufficed.
      
hdescavernes
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 22:33
Phread écrit le Thu, 24 November 2011 22:15

At the beginning of (some) games I wish my opponent "Good luck - but not too much."

I say this partly in jest, but partly seriously because if one's opponent (or indeed oneself) has too much good luck the the game may be won by the luckiest player not the most skilful.


I always feel bad when I'm on a roll and my opponent's dice are abysmal Sad
      
HamonSerrano
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 23:04
I am happy to read your quick replies, so i decided to share more about my RBF experience.


First of all, i forget to write down an important thing:
I am always happy, when my hit rate % is worse than expected (under 50% infantry etc.) and worse than my opponent's number! This is a confirmation, that i used my strategic skills to win without the help of luck!
The opposite of that is also true: when i have luck, and there is a huge difference between my and opponent's hit rate % on my side, i could not be fully happy. But we can not control the luck, can we? Smile

I picked a few interesting stats of these 200 games:
Total dice rolls: 27073
Average dice roll / battle: 135,365
Killed units/battle 57,655
Total killed units: 12207

Stats of two players:A victory which has the less dice rolls: 72 (together)
A lost game which has the less dice rolls: 98 (together)
A lost game which has the most dice rolls: 188 (together)
A victory which has the most dice rolls: 210 (together)

My stats:
The most dice rolls in my victory: 123
The most dice rolls in my loss: 117 (7 medals)
The less dice rolls in my victory: 32
The less dice rolls in my loss: 39 (8 medals)

The worst performance: 58 dice rolls 2 medals (17 units were killed)

The most infantry units were killed in a game: 36 (46 units total)
The most armor units were killed in a game: 15 (37 units total)
The most artillery units were killed in a game: 5 (35 units total)

The less units were killed in a victory: 22 units

I tried to find relatively high numbers for choosing the strangest underperformance hit rates % against

- infantry:
93 dice rolls - 31 hits (33,33%)
88 dice rolls - 26 hits (29,55%)

I know, that on RBF map, the Sniper can be included in these games, so the expected number can be under 50%! But still interesting results!

- armor:
31 dice rolls - 6 hits (19,35%)
53 dice rolls - 11 hits (20,75%)


- Artillery: (grenade 16,67% but in special situation can be added with star and flag up to 50%)
20 dice rolls - 2 hits (10,00%)
13 dice rolls - 1 hits (7,69%)


Strange overperformance hit rate % against

- infantry:
36 dice rolls - 24 hits (66,67%)
16 dice rolls - 13 hits (81,25%) => comment: not a very high number, but that was my personal record % against infantry on RBF!

I know that flag and star (airstrike or sniper) can be added to the normal 50% number, but we can also subtract the shots against snipers, so this is still interesting!

- armor:
16 dice rolls - 10 hits (62,50%) personal record % against armor on RBF!

I know that flag and star can be added to normal 33% in special situations, but this was a luck battle for me!

- Artillery:
17 dice rolls - 5 hits (29,41%) interesting because of medics



Opponent's stats:

The most dice rolls in opponent's victory: 103

The most dice rolls in opponent's loss: 119 (9 medals)

The less dice rolls in opponent's victory: 43

The less dice rolls in opponent's loss: 21 (2 medals)

The worst performance: 42 dice rolls 0 medals (12 units were killed)

The most infantry units were killed in a game: 35 (42 units total)
The most armor units were killed in a game: 14 (37 units total)
The most artillery units were killed in a game: 4 (42 units total)

The less units were killed in a victory: 22 units


The strangest dice rolls of my opponent:

Total dice rolls: 42
Infantry figure: 15 (35,71%)
Tank: 0 (0%)
Grenade: 9 (21,43%)
Flag: 7 (16,67%)
Star: 11 (26,19%)

Expected number of tanks should have been 7, and he made 0. Strange!


- infantry:
10 dice rolls - 9 hits (90,00%)
53 dice rolls - 15 hits (28,30%)

- armor:
23 dice rolls - 3 hits (13,04%)
32 dice rolls - 6 hits (18,75%)
9 dice rolls - 7 hits (77,78%)
7 dice rolls - 6 hits (85,71%)

- Artillery:
17 dice rolls - 2 hits (11,76%)
34 dice rolls - 2 hits (5,88%) => i should deserve a survivor badge (STEAM) for my artillery Smile
5 dice rolls - 4 hits (80,00%)

In this topic i was writing about statistics, but to tell the truth the end result numbers could not show us a real objective view of the game!
There are several critical situations in a game, which has more important role to win a game, than hit rate stats.
I you can't kill a unit with expected hit rate, and the opponent strikes back next turn for example with a medic, he/she can make a big revenge on your miss!

And this is also connected to luck...

Anybody knows why DOW hide the stats of how many games were played on a scenario? I would be grateful to see that information again! Which map is the most popular among players?

Good dice rolling for everbody and have fun on RBF!
HamonSerrano
      
Nygaard
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 25 November 2011 20:13
HamonSerrano wrote on Thu, 24 November 2011 23:04

I am happy to read your quick replies, so i decided to share more about my RBF experience.


First of all, i forget to write down an important thing:
I am always happy, when my hit rate % is worse than expected (under 50% infantry etc.) and worse than my opponent's number! This is a confirmation, that i used my strategic skills to win without the help of luck!
The opposite of that is also true: when i have luck, and there is a huge difference between my and opponent's hit rate % on my side, i could not be fully happy. But we can not control the luck, can we? Smile (snip)


I have to agree with this sentiment - I too like to have WORSE dice than my opponent when I win. Smile
This is also the reason I rarely get mad when I loose to bad dice, but I kick myself if I make a strategic or tactical error to cost me the victory. Or worst of all - the dreaded MIS-CLICK... (Oh, DoW - when O when will you make the computer avoid frozen rivers when you drag 'n' drop a unit?)

I don't mind the randomness of this map - as a matter of fact I find that it's a challenge to your strategic skills when you have so many random factors. In a game like chess you would have to invent artificial handicap to have a master and a novice sit down and play, in Memoir you just let the master play the underdog in one of the tough maps.

Magnus (lover of the random factor)
      
HamonSerrano
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sun, 27 November 2011 17:12
I just can repeat that RBF is the best map for strategic players!
Have fun on RBF!
Bye!
HamonSerrano
      
bikini
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Mon, 28 November 2011 15:22
There are plenty of WW2 games out there, but why I love M44 is its simplicity and speed - while still maintaining a level of tactical ability/skill. Part of how it does this is through involving a fair amount of luck.

I certainly prefer it when the luck (of dice or cards) is balanced for both opponents, but when it doesn't happen that way, I remind myself that I play this game for the enjoyment and not taking it too seriously or competitively is the way I can keep enjoying it.

Like others though, I enjoy it even more when I can succeed despite poor dice and or cards.
      
HamonSerrano
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 17 December 2011 20:49
Hello everybody!

I continued my experience on the Red Barricade Factory scenario.
My friend shared his statistical result, and now my Excel has 279 games.

Number of battles on RBF: 279
Number of total dice rolls: 37450

figures:
12514 (33,42%) - infantry
6338 (16,92%) - armor
6212 (16,59%) - grenade
6235 (16,65%) - flag
6151 (16,42%) - star

Average dice roll / battle: 134,23

During these games, i reached my personal high score record to a new level: I had 1981 points.
Unfortunately, i lost 2 of my last 3 games, and i lost 64 points. My victory worth only 8 points. So this experience on RBF cost me a lot! Smile

I hope you will have bigger luck during your RBF games than i had, or you can roll the dice at least on the statistical average which can be enough for a victory! Smile

If you interested on other details, or you have questions, write me, and i will answer.
Bye!
HamonSerrano
      
ppodahu
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sun, 18 December 2011 10:39
As always, there is a need of luck anyway.
However this huge database of Hamon confirms that DOW has a good random generator for battle dice.So don't give up after 20000 tries your average ratios will be correct Razz


On the other hand I support Hamon's opinion about the strategic side of RBF. I like all of my wins, but it is usually much more fun to win the game on "my own",e.g. without unrealistic dice results. RBF is a proper battle field, due to the 10 medal requirement, to show your strategic skills. Here you have more chance to compensate some "bad luck", but do not forget!This is a game with dice, you won't have ever chance to compansate and calculate everything!That makes m44 great and that makes every battle different Smile

As a link to another forum about developments. (I guess there are conversations about the lack of Air Pack rules), there are hopefully projects in progress also regarding to introduce scenarios with 10 medals or Breakthrough scenarios and we will face more battles like RBF in the near future where players like Hamon (and myself) will have the chance to have fun in more strategic and less dice ruled battles.

regards,
PP
      
HamonSerrano
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 07 January 2012 18:35
Hi everybody!

I wish a happy new year for all the Memoir 44 fans! Smile

I continued my experience on the Red Barricade Factory map.
With the help of Ppodahu, who shared his RBF results, now i have a new statistic.

312 games:
Total dice rolls: 41854
Average dice roll / battle: 134,15
Killed units/battle 56,91
Total killed units: 17757

Figures:
Infantry - 33,57% (14052)
Tank - 16,81% (7035)
Grenade - 16,58% (6941)
Flag - 16,62% (6957)
Star - 16,41% (6869)


During this RBF experience i was able to come back to the first position on the ranklist. Moreover i fulfilled my other goal: i reached and passed the 2000 point limit. This was a very big challenge for me!
I'm happy to say that my theory had been proved: Anyone can beat anybody on the Red Barricade Factory scenario! This map is a great challenge for M44 generals who wants to defeat luck!

I am looking forward who will be the next who reach the 2000 points.

Let's roll the Dice my M44 friends! See you soon on RBF!
Bye!






      
Nygaard
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 07 January 2012 21:25
Congratulations! That's an amazing achievement.

I don't think I'll ever get there- I don't have the patience to play only "less-luck" maps... Smile
      
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sun, 08 January 2012 20:51
Some years ago I was an semipro poker-player. Pokerplayers discuss the same problem. Is poker a skill or a luck game? I think the answer is the same. You can have luck short-term. But you need skill to win long-term. MM is a short game. So you can play a lot of battles. So it does not need much time to see if you have skill or not. For sure you can have a down- or an upswing but finally the best player will win the most games.

p.s.: Sorry for my bad english.
      
JJAZ
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Tue, 10 January 2012 18:28
One thing about red barricades.
The online version has still some bugs in that scenario.
I tested it a lot as i find it one of the few good ones to play VS the AI.
I respect the fact that making the AI is a very difficult thing so no disrespect from me.
The thing is that the Snipers do things that can not be done if the rules are played accurate.
A sniper can not target an armor unit or Ambush it, happened to my poor armor unit in close assault.
If armor is adjacend it can not target a distant infantry etc..
What the outcome of the dices may be, i say they fiddle with them lol.
Its not hard to make a program that evens up on dices during a game.
If i target an Inf i roll 2 Armor and 1 inf, if i target an armor i roll 3 inf so 4/6 inf 2/6 arm etc..
But still my favourite game Laughing
      
rasmussen81
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Tue, 10 January 2012 19:11
JJAZ wrote on Tue, 10 January 2012 21:28

One thing about red barricades.
The online version has still some bugs in that scenario.
I tested it a lot as i find it one of the few good ones to play VS the AI.
I respect the fact that making the AI is a very difficult thing so no disrespect from me.
The thing is that the Snipers do things that can not be done if the rules are played accurate.
A sniper can not target an armor unit or Ambush it, happened to my poor armor unit in close assault.
If armor is adjacend it can not target a distant infantry etc..


I hope you have submitted a Bug Report for this mistake!! That way they can fix it for future versions...

Quote:

What the outcome of the dices may be, i say they fiddle with them lol.
Its not hard to make a program that evens up on dices during a game.
If i target an Inf i roll 2 Armor and 1 inf, if i target an armor i roll 3 inf so 4/6 inf 2/6 arm etc..
But still my favourite game Laughing


As DoW has said, their dice mechanism is not (and has never been) designed to favor anybody. It doesn't even know who it is rolling for...but it sure is easy to blame the system! Laughing
      
HamonSerrano
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Wed, 18 January 2012 21:49
Hi Everybody!

First of all i would like to congratulate to Helcat and Ppodahu!
Helcat became the first General Brigadier!
My friend Ppodahu became the next person who reached the 2000 point limit on the ranklist. Nice job!

I played several games on RBF in the last couple of days, and i have now information to share with you.

First of all i was very surprised, when one of my opponents asked me about the sniper unit. I thought that those players, who played at least 2-300 games (or more), and promoted to major rank (or higher), they already know this game. And i was a little bit shocked when i realized, that is not necessarily true. I played a lot of games against cadets or 1st and 2nd lieutenants, and I was prepared that they may have questions about the game. I help with pleasure to anybody who has a problem or questions about the game. But this gap of basic M44 knowledge from an experienced player was surprising to me!
I advise for those players, who are not sure about their knowledge: Read the rules and read the scenario description before starting a game! It is very important to know! You can easily loose a game without these information! I am sure this advice was already written in other forum topics too, but i wanted to repeat it as a comfirmation.

A small reminder about the sniper unit:
Sniper unit can shoot infantry, enemy sniper and artillery, but they can't shoot tanks. If a sniper shoot star symbol against infantry, sniper and artillery it is a hit! (plus the symbols in general rules)
Sniper can move 2 hex and can shoot! It can step into a town hex and still shoot in the same turn!
You can shoot a sniper only with grenade symbol (infantry is not a hit). But enemy sniper can shoot a sniper with star symbol too! Of course flag can be a hit if the unit is unable to retreat! (just like other units) Sniper does not count as a victory medal!

In the RBF scenario: Axis player can use the recon card as an an air power card! You can shoot like an air power in that section, but in that case you can not choose among 2 cards!

A lot of players were surprised when i played recon as an airpower! So don't forget to read the rules before the game!

I met with another strange problem, when somebody plays a Behind enemy lines card, and he moves the infantry unit into a town hex, and he was surprised that he lost the chance to shoot with that unit! Don't forget to read the cards before playing it if you are not sure about it!

I continue with the statistical side of my RBF experiment.

Here are the latest numbers:

Number of battles: 345
Total number of dice rolls: 46407
Average: 134,51

Infantry Tank Grenade Flag Star All
15508 7834 7722 7746 7597 46407
33,42% 16,88% 16,64% 16,69% 16,37%

When i started to collect data in my excel file, I thought at first, that i should keep my statistics as a secret, but now i decided to share with you. You can learn a few things by reading and analyzing them. If somebody wants to analyze my battles, how was my road to the success on RBF, he can watch the replays online. So it is not a secret anymore. But today i will tell you a lot of useful information, and it is up to you, do you want to use this chance to improve your efficiency or not.

Until this time i shared only the summarized stats of RBF battles! Today i will split into "my" and "opponent" groups.

Start with opponent total stats:

Infantry
Roll Hit %
13368 6430 48,10%

Tank
Roll Hit %
6851 2234 32,61%

Artillery
Roll Hit %
1117 295 26,41%

Rolled figures:
Infantry Tank Grenade Flag Star Total
7112 3620 3552 3535 3517 21336
33,33% 16,97% 16,65% 16,57% 16,48%


My total stats:

Infantry
Roll Hit %
16110 7852 48,74%

Tank
Roll Hit %
6929 2299 33,18%

Artillery
Roll Hit %
2026 554 27,34%

Rolled figures:

Infantry Tank Grenade Flag Star Total
8396 4214 4170 4211 4080 25071
33,49% 16,81% 16,63% 16,80% 16,27%

Average dice rolls: 134,51
My dice rolls/game: 72,67
Opponent's dice rolls/game: 61,84
Difference: 10,82

Total number of my dice rolls: 25071
Total number of killed units: 10705
Average number of killed units/game: 31,03

Total number of opponent's dice rolls: 21336
Total number of killed units: 8959
Average number of killed units/game: 25,97

Difference between total killed units: 1746
Difference between average killed units/game: 5,06

Another interesting thing, that there is a difference between my and my opponent's average target unit!

My targets:
% Dice rolls
Infantry 64,26% 46,70
Tank 27,64% 20,08
Artillery 8,08% 5,87

Opponent targets:

% Dice rolls
Infantry 62,65% 38,75
Tank 32,11% 19,86
Artillery 5,24% 3,24

I try explain these numbers:
Me and my opponent is targeting tank units 20 times a game. It is almost the same!
The difference is bigger against infantry and artillery!
I am choosing artillery as a target much more often than my opponents.

I was happy, when i realized that i won 80% of my RBF battles. This number is much higher than my average on other scenarios. It is a combined stat, so both

sides included! That is why i love this scenario, because anyone can beat anyone on this map no matter which (axis/allied) side he is playing!

During these 345 games I collected: 3203 of the maximum 3450 medals.
My opponents collected: 2118. The difference is 1085! This is a huge number!
In spite of this fact, i am still learning this game, still learning how to play on this map, because every game and every opponent is different. You can not defeat your enemy only with your statistics! You have to improve your play in every battle!

It was a real surprise for me i realized that dispite of my higher average dice rolls, there was a difference between axis and allied side games!

My average dice rolls as axis player: 84,58
My average dice rolls as allied player: 61,97

Opponent average dice rolls as axis player: 56,52
Opponent average dice rolls as allied player: 66,13

This is a very strange fact! I rolled the dice as axis more with 28, and less with 4 as allied than my opponent!


Over the numbers:

To tell the truth my statistical experiment has beginned much earlier than DOW modified the bugs on RBF! For a long time units with sandbags were able to

ignore flag symbol during Axis recon Air power card! This bug is fixed now. A low % number on both sides because of that! My guess, that this number will

rise a little in the future! (thanks for the fixed bug)

A higher percetage on my side against artillery doesnt mean that i had more luck during these games than my opponent. I used my sniper units more often than

my average opponent (not true for every player i played against). Sniper gives a +16,66% chance with the star symbol against artillery!
I often use the opportunity when a unit is closed with impassable terrain and other units, and there is no free hex to retreat!

To sum up i still suggest RBF map for those players, who likes M44, because this is the best map! On this map you have the most chance to beat your bad luck!

Questions? Feel free to ask me!

See you on RBF!
Bye!
HamonSerrano

[Updated on: Thu, 19 January 2012 13:42]

      
HamonSerrano
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 24 February 2012 19:27
Hi everbody! I will refresh the stats with new numbers soon!
Good luck everybody, and roll the dice on the Red Barricade Factory!
      
Burdie Smith
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 24 February 2012 20:16
I was just beaten by Hamon in the RBF. I didn't follow this discussion at all on the forum. I have read it now and have to say: respect that you put so much time in a single scenario and all the calculations and excel work you are doing. There's not one thing I could say in oppostion of all the things you have written down. It's more than likely true that the RBF scenario is the one where the best strategic player wins but on the other hand (and sorry for saying this, it's my peronal opinion), how fair is it to play against people a scenario that you know by heart, that you played like 300 times. Is it still a question of being the best strategic player or is it simply knowing what your opponent will do and won't do and where he made mistakes and being prepared for every situation?! No problem, everyone should play memoir like he prefers to play it. But the guys on the other side could feel a bit betrayed don't you think?

My opinion: there wasn't a single battle in WW2 where the enemy had the same advantage. They won or they lost, as simple as that. They hadn't the change of studying a battle and redoing it over and over again. I like the mix of scenario's, the more different the better I like it. You lose a certain battle, no problem you lick your wounds and you move on to the next one.
A scenario with more medals (and I agree 100% with Hamon's opinion) gives you more strategic oportunities) That's why Breakthrough is by far my personale favourite and BREAKLORD even more...

If someone really wants a strategic game with all its components and theory, there's allways chess. There you will win or being beaten by guys who have studied every single aspect of the game and probably know exactly the same as you. In memoir luck remains a factor as are the cards. Strategy will certainly be an advantage and knowing the game and its components by heart even more. But still like I said to other people: war isn't fair and many battles were won by luck, or by factors the generals and troops had no impact on. This is the same for memoir.

I like the game a lot but next time I will probably ask how many times my oponent has played the scenario Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy so I know what I'm up against Shocked

And perhaps to end my opinion: the fact that I was beaten by Hamon was in fact due to his better strategic postions and play. Unfortunately for him my statistics were twice worse than his...
      
stevie02
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 24 February 2012 21:00
Spot on.

Stevie
      
Jeronimon
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 24 February 2012 21:29
I have to disagree with the two previous posters.

Yes, Hamon knows the scenario very well, but if you know how everything works in M44 (terrain, units, rules, "stuff") and you use your brain you have a good chance of winning.

Of course it helps if you have played the scenario a few times and have "been around the M44-block" a few times. But Hamon is certainly not unbeatable on Red Barriicades Factory. Mad Cool

I for one, welcome the chance to play this scenario against Hamon because of the challenge this offers.

Bring it on! Smile
      
clorofila
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 25 February 2012 02:04
Burdie Smith wrote on Fri, 24 February 2012 19:16

[...]No problem, everyone should play memoir like he prefers to play it. [...]


To me, this sentence is absolutely essential.
Discussions about fairness, ethics or righteousness, although interesting from the argument «ping-pong» point of view, are emptied by each player's personal liberty to play this game as he wishes, within the rules established by DoW.

Long live diversity! Razz
      
Phread
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 25 February 2012 02:06
The beauty of M44 online is that each player can find a goal that pleases them.

For me it is the officer rank and knowledge that I have played and won every scenario from both sides multiple times.

HamonSerrano likes being the expert in RBF and - I guess - #1 in the points table.
That's his choice. Some will not respect him for that choice some will.

It wouldn't float my boat and I would not find that fulfilling, and that's my choice. Each to their own.

Let us respect each other for playing the game.
If you don't like another player's goals or style or choices then don't play them, that is a valid choice to make.

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Have fun everyone. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
      
Nygaard
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 25 February 2012 11:04
I think Hamon Serrano should play what-ever scenario he finds fun, and he's a probably a good player, though it'll be hard to tell unless he plays other maps as well. He's certainly the player who knows RBF the best, no doubt.

And I'm not going to be particularly concerned with the Skill-rating, since it inherently prevents me from playing low-skill players and "luck maps" if I wanted to challenge Serrano's skill-points.
And I like playing every type of player on every type of map (Utah Beach and Gallabat & Metemma, excepted), since I'm convinced it'll make me a better player, and I'll gladly take the skill-losses as well.


See you on the battlefield!
      
LooneyLlama
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 25 February 2012 17:40
Red Barricades is one of my favorite scenarios but to play it hundreds of times would get very boring. In my opinion, the SFTF offer more of a challenge to advanced players. You can play a scenario that neither of you have played before(Burdie Smith this is for you). Figuring out the strategy 'on the run' would be very challenging. You would have to know the rules inside and out in order to develop a possible winning strategy. I think as more and more terrain and specialized units are made available more advanced players will play them.
      
Fogminster
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 25 February 2012 20:32
question for Hamon: Do you use the recons for airpower or as a recon card? I've been doing air power most frequently but sometimes I've wondered if its smarter to use them as recons.
      
ppodahu
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sun, 26 February 2012 13:04
Fogminster, let me answer your question:

It's really dependent of the situation. No exact choice, because there are pros and contras for both of the opportunities.

If you do not have the right cards in hand, you have to use the recon's specialty to select the better card.

However if there are lot's of huntable units in a row, than don't wait...

You have to analyse the current stage of the battle anddecide based on it. I guess that htere is no generally applicable rule for the application of reco...

This is my oppinion and now, let us wait for master Harmon's!
      
JFKoski
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Tue, 28 February 2012 03:16
If I'm going up the Right, I would want to use my Recon-Right as a Recon. and to get more Rights.

If I'm going for an artillery that's against the baseline, an Air Strike can hit 50%. So if I have one plus an Air Power I might use them together; or a Barrage plus a Recon.
      
Dietrich von Kleist
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 02 March 2012 13:43
http://www.daysofwonder.com/uploads/userpages/122523/_5416_web.jpg
      
airstrike
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 16 March 2012 21:53
hello guys, very interesting comments on stats from dice roll !!!!
i like this mission from both side and all tactical possibilities .

to avoid lucky effect play chess , same army , only concentration and training to improve your skills !!!
i like it !!!
i like m44 too but i think luck is not only dice roll, it is mostly at which time luck happen to you or me Smile

i've played several games and sometimes i shoot on artillery several dices and nothing !!!
then the other do the same and made kills on my artillery !!! or units that are STRATEGIC at that momment of the game !!!
so luck at that time is the most important !!!

same for cards at good momment !!! ex counter strike ....

sometimes for me sometimes for the other and that make the balance !!!

but true after several games for sure the best ( tactical ) will have most of wins , i think so
      
stevie02
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 16 March 2012 22:29
''but true after several games for sure the best ( tactical ) will have most of wins , i think so''

I agree totally. However, its those 5% to 10% of games that even Napoleon could do nothing about when the cards and dice do the damage.

I can play 10 games, win 9 and loose 1 and still feel unlucky. Thats what Memoir 44 had reduced me to Rolling Eyes

The best players who beat me make their own luck with superior manouver and sequencing of cards, at the time I mutter about my misfortune but in the cold light of day I know when ive had a whooping.

Just my thoughts
      
airstrike
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Fri, 16 March 2012 23:38
right, but i've didn't finished my comments Smile

luck is also when using card ( counter strike ) when , on which card ?

and which dices did you get when "heroical action " take places
grenades and flags ? or tanks when you have no more Sad
same for "medic" !!!

i think "air attack" is not "historically" followed , the game was made for "remembering" allied freeing normandy so air supremacy was for allied at that time so 2 dices allied vs 1 axis on each target !!!

this card should be according hisorical situation !!!
so here either 1 axis and 1 allied ( soviet ) or 2 axis and 1 soviet

more over i'd like to have the possibility to use " AIR PACK " on all missions
with "air sortie" card side and blitz only for axis here on RBF!!!

i play a lot on the board game using TIGER ( when 2 tank units are elite , i switch one into TIGER )all year after nov 1942 !!

statistically Tiger are harder to knock out !!!! no doubt on mathematics

it's crazy the number of time that after one hit ( tank , grenade or unable to retreat ) the only one dice roll into a grenade !!!!

same for airieal test !!!

i'm not sure about sniper or artillery ( they seemed to be more resistant !!!!) it's may be a feeling ???

luck is part of life but according Stalingrad i think that even if the german took the city before Xmas , german will loose the 6nd army !!!!
because stalingrad was a trap to fix germans ( too long communication , hard fight man to man in the ruins and rumble )!!!!
soviets didn't care for los of soldiers !!!
russians masses more than 1000 tanks and 1 million of soldier to smash the flank of the german which were held by italians and roumanians !!!! then encercle the 6nd army for doom !!!

i don't like to play Arnheim ( to win it as german of course you have to get good cards, to be lucky with dices and that your opponant has bad card and not a great experience in m44 )

omaha is almost the same but i found it fun sometime !!!


to conclude i hope DOW will include "AIR PACK" rules in m44 online ( the best would be on choice yes or no of both players in the beginning menu of a mission !!!
don't you like to have it ?

thanks for reading Smile
and thanks to hamon serrano Smile

[Updated on: Sat, 17 March 2012 11:56]

      
stevie02
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Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Sat, 17 March 2012 09:19
''i don't like to play Arnheim ( to win it as german of course you have to get good cards, to be lucky with dices and that your opponant has bad card and not a great experience in m44 )''

Great post. Though I do disagree slightly with the above statement. To win at Arnhem with axis the vital ingredient is 'patience'. If you prepare for a methodical approach the 'good cards' will cycle through you eventually and the dice.... well, we know what they can be like.

Its still a bitch to win of course and when you do get Airstrike or Barrage you need to have some success with them. Much more winable than 'First assault wave' with Allies in my opinion.

Stevie
      
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