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Forum: Memoir '44 - English
 Topic: Probabilities analysis for MM44, spreadsheet, and complex odds calculator
deepnet
Junior Member
Lieutenant Colonel

Posts: 9
Registered:
December 2005
Probabilities analysis for MM44, spreadsheet, and complex odds calculator Sat, 02 August 2014 04:15
Hello Folks:

So, I've been wondering lately about the odds of certain situations in MM44, especially with overruns, in odd situations (different numbers of dice for each phase of the battle.) I've looked at some available MM44 spreadsheets and the like, and didn't really see what I was looking for.

So, I wrote a bunch, and I'm making them available to anyone who is interested!

First, the download URL:
http://www.deepnettech.com/tmp/mmcalc.zip

Contents:

- mm_calc.xls: a spreadsheet, that shows single-roll and overrun probabilities of death of a unit, based on number of dice, and health of the unit.

- MM44Calc.exe: a Windows command tool, which can be used to calculate specific unit death odds for any combination of single roll, overrun, health of defending unit, and variable dice for the first and second attack (overrun). Run it by itself, to show the command line usage/parameters. This tool does a full combinatorial analysis of all possible outcomes in the setup, to determine the odds.

- main.cpp: the C++ source code for the above program, free for anyone to review, edit, use, abuse, etc! There are of course NO viruses or anything in the program... I compiled it myself, for Windows, but it is portable to any C++ environment for the curious.

The single roll table in the spreadsheet is probability based, since that case is fairly simple (it is in effect a 'Bernoulli Trial'). The overrun case is more complicated, and I used the MM44Calc program to determine the corresponding values in the overrun table in the spreadsheet. I have manually computed the statistical probability of a few cases, to ensure the overrun program values are correct.

The command line tool is like this:


=============
MM44Calc.exe [# defending units] [# die hits on attack 1] [# of die on attack #1] <# die hits on attack 2> <# of die on attack #2>
- # defending units: 1 to 4, # of units in the defender
- # die hits on attack 1: number of die faces that are a hit, from 1 to 4
- # of die on attack #1: # of dice that are rolled on the first attack
- # die hits on attack 2 (optional): number of die faces that are a hit, from 1 to 4
- # of die on attack #2 (optional): # of dice that are rolled on the second attack
Table commands:
release\MM44Calc.exe single
- generate the single roll attack tables
release\MM44Calc.exe overruns
- generate the simple overrun attack tables

=================

For example, suppose you want to know the odds of an inf. wiping out a healthy 3-tank with retreat options, adjacent: MM44Calc 3 2 3 0 0. 3 for 3 units in the tank, 2 for die facings that are hits (grenade, tank), 3 for # dice the inf rolls. From the second table in the spreadsheet, 3/3 column: 3.70%. Suppose it's a Japanese full strength unit, Close Assault, or Finest Hour (i.e. 4 die): MM44Calc 3 2 4 0 0, 11.11%.

Now, suppose it's a tank attack that tank, with an overrun option (i.e. retreat available): MM44Calc 3 2 3 2 3, or 13.29%! Quite a jump up from 3.7% for one attack!

Suppose the first attack is only one die: MM44Calc 3 2 1 2 3: 0.62% (ugh!).

Anyway, this gives you the flavour of the tools. The program can answer many more questions than what is in the spreadsheet.

Enjoy!