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Mr Bluze
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Skill or Luck Sun, 01 April 2012 15:36
It is of my opinion that this games is 40% card draw, 40% dice rolls and 20% skill. I was wondering what others thought.
      
stevie02
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Re:Skill or Luck Sun, 01 April 2012 16:19
Its a tricky one to fathom. I think skill would be a bit higher. A skillfull player will use an 'unlucky' hand of cards better than a less skillfull one.

However, if he or she is playing as Allies on that damn desert airfield, whos name I will not utter here Smile and he draws all left flank cards and a 'Dig in'. He would be forgiven for pressing the 'surrender' button.... if there was one.

Stevie


      
Kelly's Hero
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Re:Skill or Luck Sun, 01 April 2012 18:46
When I win, its because of my skill.
When I lose, its because of my bad luck.

Laughing
      
TheAmra
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Re:Skill or Luck Sun, 01 April 2012 21:21
Kelly's Hero wrote on Sun, 01 April 2012 19:46

When I win, its because of my skill.
When I lose, its because of my bad luck.

Laughing


As clear as it get!!!

Two with me
Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool Cool
      
Syky
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 00:23
After my last battle today, I've realized that no matter how skilled you are, there are situations where you cannot do anything with it. When you do not have the cards, that can allow you to play what you want and in advance your dices just realized that flags and stars are the best they can give you ... Then you are doomed.
Evil or Very Mad
      
TheAmra
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 00:42
Syky wrote on Mon, 02 April 2012 01:23

After my last battle today, I've realized that no matter how skilled you are, there are situations where you cannot do anything with it. When you do not have the cards, that can allow you to play what you want and in advance your dices just realized that flags and stars are the best they can give you ... Then you are doomed.
Evil or Very Mad


I think what you describe here, is the story of a poor fellow,
against whom you and me are now able to demonstrate our Arnhem and Omaha Victory badges Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
      
sam1812
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 01:19
In my experience, Memoir is probably 70%-75% skill.

If a strong player is playing an "even" scenario against a beginner, he'll probably lose only in occasional cases of very bad luck (or opponent's very good luck). If it were 80% luck as you suggest, then the strong player probably would win such games 60% of the time or less.
      
Quit2
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 01:25
Syky wrote on Mon, 02 April 2012 00:23

After my last battle today, I've realized that no matter how skilled you are, there are situations where you cannot do anything with it. When you do not have the cards, that can allow you to play what you want and in advance your dices just realized that flags and stars are the best they can give you ... Then you are doomed.
Evil or Very Mad

I watched the replay for that game. (I suppose it was the one on Matanikau river)
I agree that you had bad dice, but I also saw quite some moves that I consider less than optimal.
It starts with your first turn: you play a recon en force while the enemy is still far away from you, and at the same time, it is one of the only cards in your opening hand that allows you to answer to an assault on your left flank (the flank on which your opponent has most chances to win the game in this scenario).
On top of that, you use the card to bring another infantry unit within reach of the opponent, allowing your oppenent to take another medal when attacking your weak (and cardless) flank.
A better play would have been your recon right. It is your weakest card, and best used when the enemy is still far away. It could also improve your hand for the left flank, since you can draw two cards to choose one from.
So some tips from me:
- keep your best cards until you can use them for optimal effect.
- if you have a bad hand, buy time until you can improve your hand.
- on matanikau river, playing with the allies: don't let a full strenght japanese unit run into the river and attack one of your units in the jungle. Instead, retreat your infantry 1 space behind the jungle. Then when his infantry runs into the river, move back into the jungle and attack his infantry in the river. Of course, it all depends on what cards you hold.
      
clexton27
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 01:30
sam1812 wrote on Sun, 01 April 2012 19:19

In my experience, Memoir is probably 70%-75% skill.

If a strong player is playing an "even" scenario against a beginner, he'll probably lose only in occasional cases of very bad luck (or opponent's very good luck). If it were 80% luck as you suggest, then the strong player probably would win such games 60% of the time or less.


I think Sam has it pretty close..
      
GhostBrigades19
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 04:59
How am I supposed to encourage a new cadet who is discouraged at the terrible rolls he is getting?

I played my friend 4 times and won 3, and I don't want to make it feel like I'm losing on purpose.

Im frustrated cause I'm trying to introduce this awesome game to them.
      
GhostBrigades19
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 05:09
I mean seriously, who likes to see a 74% hit rate against their infantry?
      
clexton27
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 05:22
GhostBrigades19 wrote on Sun, 01 April 2012 22:59

How am I supposed to encourage a new cadet who is discouraged at the terrible rolls he is getting?

I played my friend 4 times and won 3, and I don't want to make it feel like I'm losing on purpose.

Im frustrated cause I'm trying to introduce this awesome game to them.


Several thoughts:
1. NEVER LOSE ON PURPOSE. ALWAYS FIGHT TO THE FINISH.
2. Terrible dice rolls may be a function of a bad spell of dice and it may also be a product of not knowing the odds. On average, a symbol that kills off an infantry figure will appear on the dice 50% percent of the rolls or 1/2. An armor unit 33.3% or 1/3 and an artillery unit 16.6% or 1/6. If an oponent is always targeting the harder to hit units, they will tend to miss more often. It is not the dice but the targeting that may need some modification.
3. If you are going to improve in any game that requires skill, you will need to practice. Practicing involves playing a lot of games. You cannot win ALL the games, but you should be able to learn from every game. I was fortunate when I started out and became frustrated that I had mentors who encouraged me to persist and also they would answer my questions. You too can be that type of mentor.
4. No matter how good you are, you will occasionally lose to luck. It is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Is it fun? NO! But it is a part of the game, shrug it off and move on, because in time, one day, it will be your opponent watching the train wreck and you will feel sorry for him (and if you are kind you will acknowledge this).
5. If the game stops being fun, stop playing (if only for awhile). It is meant to be enjoyed.

[Mis à jour le: Mon, 02 April 2012 05:24]

      
sam1812
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 06:11
GhostBrigades19 wrote on Sun, 01 April 2012 22:59

How am I supposed to encourage a new cadet who is discouraged at the terrible rolls he is getting?

I played my friend 4 times and won 3, and I don't want to make it feel like I'm losing on purpose.

Im frustrated cause I'm trying to introduce this awesome game to them.

That's what the unbalanced scenarios are for!

Take the Allies at Omaha, Axis at Juno and Arnhem. You'll have nice, competitive games.

Good luck. (You'll need it.) And have fun. Smile

Sam
      
Nightrain
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 06:30
I guess to mitigate poor dice and cards, a longer game is required, therefore usually 7-medals map is the minimum to really test your skill, but usually 8-10 medals map is very good to test it (or Breakthrough and Overlord map), and the map needs to have enough terrain to prevent a wipe out of 3-4 units in one single turn.
      
Syky
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 02 April 2012 23:00
Quit2 wrote on Mon, 02 April 2012 01:25

...


Thank you for your tips. Always happy to learn more about the tactics. Smile
      
Nygaard
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Re:Skill or Luck Thu, 05 April 2012 09:35
Guys - you really need to pressure DOW to get an English translation of the "Tactics and Strategy Guide".

If nothing else, it would help those who are "serious" about playing Mem44 to avoid some of the most common frustrations.

And I agree with Sam - it's about 75% skill, but of course when you loose it's ALWAYS because of bad cards or dice Smile
      
Nygaard
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Re:Skill or Luck Thu, 05 April 2012 09:50
Mr Bluze wrote on Sun, 01 April 2012 15:36

It is of my opinion that this games is 40% card draw, 40% dice rolls and 20% skill. I was wondering what others thought.


The card game part of Memoir44 is the most skill-based of the game. The dice CAN be random, the cards almost never are, if you know what you are doing.

One of the maxims of the Tactics and Strategy Guide says: "Try your luck with the dice, but never with your cards."

One note, however. If the map has very high "time pressure" (Omaha is the best example of this) you are limited in your card game, simply because you risk getting destroyed before you can make your hand. (Compare the Allies at Omaha with the Germans in Twin Villages, both have 4 cards, but the time pressure is much less urgent in Villages).
      
silenttimo
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Re:Skill or Luck Thu, 05 April 2012 14:33
I usually speak of "memoir 44" as a game that is :

- 40% luck
- 35% skill
- 15% bluff
- 10% bravery

However, sometimes, you sure lose out of bad luck !

And when you play against another skilled player, you have to rely on bluff, bravery and luck only !
      
JuggernautDK
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Re:Skill or Luck Thu, 05 April 2012 18:53
I second that. However I'm not skilled enough to bluff the enemy so i put the last percentage in bravery (stupidity:))

[Mis à jour le: Thu, 05 April 2012 19:45]

      
PapasWorld
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Re:Skill or Luck Thu, 05 April 2012 19:29
stevie02 wrote on Sun, 01 April 2012 15:19

Its a tricky one to fathom. I think skill would be a bit higher. A skillfull player will use an 'unlucky' hand of cards better than a less skillfull one.

However, if he or she is playing as Allies on that damn desert airfield, whos name I will not utter here Smile and he draws all left flank cards and a 'Dig in'. He would be forgiven for pressing the 'surrender' button.... if there was one.

Stevie





Yup, that happened to me today. I really did feel like chucking the damn thing in the bin.
      
Jokull
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Re:Skill or Luck Tue, 10 April 2012 18:31
65% Luck

35% Skill

However if Luck is 70-100% even it boils down to skill.

Then there is also the table rating, some missions are down to less than 20% likely to one side, so there you will need luck to win.

Some people think less of his game and consider it a Luck game, but it requires skill to win consistently and if luck is even, it comes down to skill.
      
JFKoski
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Re:Skill or Luck Tue, 10 April 2012 18:57
I disagree about cards not being lucky.

I think for some scenarios where you have to have cards for a particular section, there should be an option where you can spend this turn discarding all your cards (instead of playing), then next turn you lose that turn too. Maybe once per game.

Sometimes I or my opponent have pulled back their wounded unit(s), only to see them destroyed by Air Power, Barrage, or Behind Enemy Lines.
      
Nygaard
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Re:Skill or Luck Wed, 11 April 2012 23:48
JFKoski wrote on Tue, 10 April 2012 18:57

I disagree about cards not being lucky.

I think for some scenarios where you have to have cards for a particular section, there should be an option where you can spend this turn discarding all your cards (instead of playing), then next turn you lose that turn too. Maybe once per game.

Sometimes I or my opponent have pulled back their wounded unit(s), only to see them destroyed by Air Power, Barrage, or Behind Enemy Lines.


But that's part of it too. You should know what cards have yet to be played - and calculate the risk. The most obvious of those being "Ambush".

But Barrage/BEL/AirPower are also good examples. Always keep track of those. Of course, in very short games - to 4 medals for instance or those where the whole thing is over in 5-6 rounds (Arracourt - I'm looking at you) you don't have the time to play on what the opponent have, but you'll have to play on what you have in your hand.

I'm not a fan of the "chess version" of Memoir44.
Making it possible to always move 1 unit (even if it cost you your turn your entire hand or whatever) will make the card game much less interesting - since you will never be able to out-play your opponent in the card game.

Magnus
      
Mr Bluze
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Re:Skill or Luck Thu, 12 April 2012 02:34
[quote title=Nygaard wrote on Wed, 11 April 2012 16:48]
JFKoski wrote on Tue, 10 April 2012 18:57


You should know what cards have yet to be played - and calculate the risk. The most obvious of those being "Ambush".

But Barrage/BEL/AirPower are also good examples. Always keep track of those. Of course,

Magnus


This is an excellent point. When I read this I had a slap my forehead. I always keep track of cards when playing poker or other conventional card games. Towards the end of a game, especially longer games, it can mean a game winner when calculating what cards your opponent may have, or what is available to both you and your opponent.
      
waltero
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Re:Skill or Luck Fri, 02 January 2015 02:33
It is all skill and daring, skill and daring my boy!

It's knowing when, where, why and how that makes this a game of skill and Daring.
Take luck out of the equation (out of your game), your game play should not be influenced by luck (good or bad).
When you are having a bit of good luck you might be more inclined to take unnecessary chances, when you are having a stroke (literally) of bad luck your probably going to suffer Some form of fibrillation discord.
I haven't encountered too many M44 players that use luck as the basis of their game play.

Don't let the dice/cards (luck) bother you.
You have your Orders...make it work!

Losing is OK...winning a game that was potentially lost is much better.
It is knowing, seeing a winning move and going for it, that makes this game exciting.
I would rather win a game having the odds work against me, than claiming a victory having the odds work with me.


Example: You are getting smoked in a game, your opponent has 6 medals (7 to win) against your measly 1 medal. You see an opportunity to go for objectives, and steal the win.
Luck has nothing to do with it...skill and daring, skill and daring!

Knowing the rules, understanding the units and realizing the function of the dice...use the dice.

Explanation: Do not hate flags (DICE), use flags to your advantage; Some enemy/friendly units are better left weakened rather than eliminated. Friendly units elimination, might serve you better in some cases.

Point being: it is possible to manipulate your luck.
For some, this might seem like a game of luck oppose to skill...I choose skill (what little I posses)

















[Mis à jour le: Sat, 03 January 2015 10:52]

      
--JP
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Re:Skill or Luck Sat, 03 January 2015 15:29
50% of the time, it's 100% luck Smile
      
Antoi
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Re:Skill or Luck Sun, 04 January 2015 15:57
Ik think too many players depend on their luck with memoir '44
But rolling 3 dice on 4 infantry does not always result in a retreat.... people call it bad luck, but is it?....

Memoir is all about reducing luck en take some risks at the right moment. Off course your hit rate is terrible some games, but most of the times its your own mistake.

My English is not that good, so maybe i'm saying this to harsh, but we are sometimes to kind to each other online. We say that someone had bad cards or bad luck with the dice, but how many times you've lost it was because of your own mistakes??

I know Many of my defeats came from bad planning or too much risk at the wrong moment. (and yes of course you could have some extreme luck or just the opposite)

Sam1812 nailed it I think when he said memoir is about 70-75% skill. Maybe its even more, but as we loose, it feels like there is more luck in the game Rolling Eyes
      
clexton27
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Re:Skill or Luck Sun, 04 January 2015 18:25
Antoi wrote on Sun, 04 January 2015 09:57

Sam1812 nailed it I think when he said memoir is about 70-75% skill. Maybe its even more, but as we loose, it feels like there is more luck in the game Rolling Eyes


Yes, this must be true because I have about a 70-75% win rate with Memoir'44 Online, and I figure I lose the rest of the games just to bad luck.

Laughing Laughing Laughing Shocked Rolling Eyes

[Mis à jour le: Sun, 04 January 2015 18:28]

      
ATTappman
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 05 January 2015 06:30
I think the reason people say it is more luck than skill is because when two reasonably skillful players play against each other, they are relatively equal and thus it does come down to luck because each player plays his cards and dice "right." The quality of players is high, but as Sam suggests a good player is likely to whomp a new player which is why many senior ranks won't play cadets. As for me, I find there are little things you can do, levels of strategy or odds calcuation yet to be discovered that can give you the slight edge to beat the best players (or make the playoffs in the Troika's (Sam's) tournament. I am not there yet but I will keep trying....

I would peg strategy at 40% and the rest luck when two players are relatively equally skilled.

Tyler
      
Jeronimon
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Re:Skill or Luck Mon, 05 January 2015 10:34
I feel that the more experienced players are, the less you can afford mistakes. A wrong placement of a unit or a not well calculated order of fire of units you can get away with against a mediocre player. Also taking risks is "taking risks" against an accomplished player, you better get what you were aiming for or it will bite you in the heiny. A good player will then capitalize on that and rescue his wounded (but not killed) unit or destroy your exposed unit.

We have all had that misclick of the mouse and usually it does not matter very much, but against a formidable opponent that will be profited from.
      
waltero
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Re:Skill or Luck Tue, 06 January 2015 01:26
Dice/cards can be a distraction (waiting for a good card/dice).
Play M44 like you would play a game of Chess...no Luck involved.

Much in the same way you don't like it when an opponent brings up Dice, cards etc while playing (in game)the game.
I hate it when somebody starts crying about the dice/cards while you are engaged in a game of warfare (I always lose once that happens)...save it for the end of the game.
In as much as you might hate it when your opponent blurts out the luck factor, don't allow your mind (thought) to foul up your game by thinking about such nonsense.

Think Stratagem. Don't waist energy trying to think about "you/his luck."

GO ahead and let it all out when the game is over.






[Mis à jour le: Tue, 06 January 2015 01:27]

      
Quit2
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Re:Skill or Luck Tue, 06 January 2015 10:03
I think it is impossible to define a specific % for skill and luck (and possibly other factors), because it depends on several parameters.

- How experienced/skilled are the players.
- How big is the difference in experience/skill between the players.
- (and one that hasn't been mentioned so far) what scenarios are we considering.

This last one is more important than one would think. Certain scenarios allow for more "skilful play" than others.
- Can you move units along the red dotted lines (and therefor use cards from different section to mount one attack)?
- Is there much cover in the scenario and/or are the units far enough from each other to allow players to manage their hand of cards, or are units engaged right from the start of the game?
- How many medals does one need to win the scenario? (=how much time does one have to build a hand of good cards)
- How many units are there in the scenario, and which type of units. If you have 2 units in each section, a probe and an assault are the same, reducing the luck factor of the card shuffle. Additionally, the skilful player can group units in one section to increase the effect of assaults and such. If each section has 6 or more units already, the difference between an assault and a probe is bigger, and the effect of adding an extra unit to that section is proportionally smaller.


As an example, I designed a scenario to illustrate my point. If all scenarios were like this one, I'd say luck is 99%. Luckily, this isn't the case, and luck doesn't have such a huge impact on the result for most scenarios.
http://www.daysofwonder.com/memoir44/en/editor/view/?id=1592 9

http://www.daysofwonder.com/memoir44/en/memoire_board/?id=15929

The card draw will be important in this one: can you imagine a hand of close assault, general advance, DFHQ, move out and Ambush against firefight, assault centre, attack centre, probe centre, recon centre for example.
The dice will also have a great impact: can your unit kill the opponent in 2 attacks? If not, you might not get a 3rd attack with your unit.

[Mis à jour le: Tue, 06 January 2015 10:07]

      
Artimon
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Re:Skill or Luck Wed, 07 January 2015 09:30
I fully agree with your analysis, Quit.
      
Quit2
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Re:Skill or Luck Wed, 07 January 2015 10:24
Artimon wrote on Wed, 07 January 2015 09:30

I fully agree with your analysis, Quit.


I did make a nice picture, to encourage people to side with me. Very Happy

Using graphics to make your point increases the chance people will agree with you. As long as you use appropriate graphics.
      
    
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