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Stormhorse
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Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 06:22
Is it just me or does it seem like some of the rolls and deals are "weighted?"
      
Nygaard
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 07:22
Nope.
Really, search the forum - this has been up SO many times before.

And besides - who would benefit from "weighted dice/deals"?
      
Phread
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 07:27
DoW have assured us (the M44 online community) that the die rolling software is random.

Some time ago, DoW posted statistics over a large number of rolls to show that the numbers of rolls for each type matched the number expected.

DoW have also said that the die rolling software doesn't know for which side the dice are being rolled.

I have no reason not to believe this - and others may testify that I have had more than my share of bad dice rolls (particularly recently).

Over time you will get sequences of bad rolls and sequences of good rolls.
We, the players, tend to remember the bad sequences more than the good.

A great example happened to me today, my worth opponent rolled 100% infantry hits (8 from 8 ) and 50% armour hit (8 from 16) overall 67% (16 from 24). Great shooting, except that it wasn't enough, I shot 36% (9 from 25) and 43% (6 from 14) respectively, took an objective medal and won 5-4. Sometimes strategy can beat dice.
      
silenttimo
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 10:24
If you read the subject about "Red barricade factory" by Hamon Serrano, you'll see his overall stats after playing a significant number of times this particular map.

Here are the stats :

Quote:

Here are the latest numbers:

Number of battles: 345
Total number of dice rolls: 46.407
Average: 134,51

(number of figures rolled / percentage based on total number of dice rolls)
- Infantry : 15.508 / 33,42% (average : 33,333%)
- Tank : 7.834 / 16,88% (average : 16,667%)
- Grenade : 7.722 / 16,64% (average : 16,667%)
- Flag : 7.746 / 16,69% (average : 16,667%)
- star : 7.597 / 16,37% (average : 16,667%)


You can see that, when you reach a very high number of rolls, your overall results get closer to what "should" be the average result.

Highest differences here are :
- infantry : +0,09% above average (40 rolls !!) ;
- star : -0,293% under average (137 rolls !).
      
sam1812
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 15:02
Technically, there's a big difference between unbiased, evenly distributed, and random.

Unbiased: DoW says that their system architecture is set up such that the die roller doesn't know what player it is rolling for or what the target unit is.

Of course, you could imagine an unbiased die roller that simply cycled through the same 6 faces of a die, in the same order, ad infinitum. This would be unbiased, and it would be evenly distributed, but it would be following a totally predictable pattern. (Hamon-Serrano has established that the die-roller is pretty evenly distributed, which Yann had demonstrated earlier with the results of the first several million die rolls.)

Randomness is different from these. To quote from Wikipedia's entry on statistical randomness, "A numeric sequence is said to be statistically random when it contains no recognizable patterns or regularities; sequences such as the results of an ideal dice roll, or the digits of pi exhibit statistical randomness." (There's probably a more specific statistical definition, but this one was easy to find quickly.)

Taking this a step further, imagine a book of perfectly random digits, and imagine that every morning you opened to a random page and started reading in order from the top in order. While any individual day's sequence might be totally random, if you used these numbers to run some sort of experiment, you could find two days that were 100% identical. (Back when I was in school, computers used "pseudo-random" numbers, which typically started with a "seed" number -- a process somewhat similar to this example. I don't know if random number generators have gotten better.)

Or imagine that you used a formula to generate a series of numbers. For example, suppose you wanted to generate a random number between -1 and +1 by throwing a dart at a graph of y=sin(x). The results might be randomly generated, but they would be more heavily bunched near -1 and +1.

Randomness doesn't mean that every game will be average. Some games will be much better or much worse. Occasionally, somebody will roll 10 misses in a row against an infantry. Occasionally, a poker player will be dealt a royal flush.

We know that the Memoir dice are unbiased and evenly distributed. Do we get more than a statistically fair share of games with 35% hit rates against infantry, or do we just notice the infuriating occasions when it happens? As far as I know, nobody has ever proven that they are truly randomly distributed.

[Updated on: Mon, 30 January 2012 15:03]

      
rasmussen81
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 15:48
Sam, you are clearly more of a mathematician than I am! Very Happy That's a good overview of what you suspect happens for Memoir '44 and to be honest, I have no idea how the program works or how the crew designed the dice-rolling mechanism.

sam1812 wrote on Mon, 30 January 2012 18:02

As far as I know, nobody has ever proven that they are truly randomly distributed.


I would ask the following question: Has anybody proven that the wooden dice provide truly randomly distributed results? Rolling Eyes

We don't suspect foul play when we're playing the tabletop version, even though people could suspect weighted dice, major imperfections in the wooden die, or uneven rolling surfaces. But because we don't know and can't see the inner-workings of the computer version, people suspect foul play or skewed results. Personally, I think the DoW crew has done the best job they can to provide randomness when it comes to the dice and card distribution. Is it perfectly random? Well, I would argue that 'perfectly random' is a contradiction of terms! Smile I think they are as random as they can be...just like I think the real dice are as random as they need to be.

Those are my two cents! Cool

[Updated on: Mon, 30 January 2012 15:48]

      
Nygaard
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 16:28
rasmussen81 wrote on Mon, 30 January 2012 15:48

Sam, you are clearly more of a mathematician than I am! Very Happy That's a good overview of what you suspect happens for Memoir '44 and to be honest, I have no idea how the program works or how the crew designed the dice-rolling mechanism.

sam1812 wrote on Mon, 30 January 2012 18:02

As far as I know, nobody has ever proven that they are truly randomly distributed.


I would ask the following question: Has anybody proven that the wooden dice provide truly randomly distributed results? Rolling Eyes

We don't suspect foul play when we're playing the tabletop version, even though people could suspect weighted dice, major imperfections in the wooden die, or uneven rolling surfaces. But because we don't know and can't see the inner-workings of the computer version, people suspect foul play or skewed results. Personally, I think the DoW crew has done the best job they can to provide randomness when it comes to the dice and card distribution. Is it perfectly random? Well, I would argue that 'perfectly random' is a contradiction of terms! Smile I think they are as random as they can be...just like I think the real dice are as random as they need to be.

Those are my two cents! Cool


QFT (and worth a lot more than 2 cents)

And as long as I can't predict the next roll of the dice, I'm happy.
      
Phread
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 20:00
As far as I know DoW haven't publically "proved" the randomness of the die rolling software.

They have shown that the results from a large number of rolls are evenly distributed, but I do not believe they have shown that software isn't prone to generating sequences.

(Thanks Sam1812 for your explanations above.)

As a computer science student, then a professional programmer, I know that it is very difficult to create a high quality random number generator. It is easy to produce one generates an even distribution but much harder to produce a random number generator that doesn't generate sequences.

Sequences are what we don't want to see as the generator goes through a sequence of numbers => a sequence of rolls.

My gut feeling is - despite my demonstrated ability to get worse than average rolls - that the software isn't prone to sequences but I have not seen any formal proof of this.

[Updated on: Mon, 30 January 2012 20:01]

      
rasmussen81
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 20:05
Phread wrote on Mon, 30 January 2012 23:00

My gut feeling is - despite my demonstrated ability to get worse than average rolls - that the software isn't prone to sequences but I have not seen any formal proof of this.


Forgive my ignorance, but what would formal proof look like? I'm afraid I don't know much about programming and if this formal proof was provided it would probably fly right over my head...but what would it be? Cool Razz
      
Phread
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 20:13
The formal proof would - if I recall correctly - involve a statistical analysis of a large number of rolls looking at more than the distribution of rolls.

I have to confess statistics was never one of my strengths and so I must leave it to others to comment in detail. I am sure there are statisticians in our midst.
      
rasmussen81
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 20:29
Phread wrote on Mon, 30 January 2012 23:13

The formal proof would - if I recall correctly - involve a statistical analysis of a large number of rolls looking at more than the distribution of rolls.


I'm sure DoW has the data it would take since it seems they record everything that goes on in the games! Looking at the game, though, I think this could be a complicated thing to look for.

Think of this...when I'm attacking a tank unit I hope to roll a tank or a grenade. Let's assume I roll 3 dice each turn. In my first turn I roll a Star, a Flag, and an Infantry symbol. All misses and the tank retreats. Next turn I roll three more. The dice are Infantry, Infantry, and Star, respectively. Next turn I roll another three and get Flag, Star, and Infantry respectively. I start to suspect that the dice-rolling mechanism is broken because I've rolled 9 dice against the same target and only rolled misses! I might even suspect that I'm getting sequences...

However, Die #1 was a Star, then Infantry, then Flag. Die #2 was Infantry, then Infantry, then Star. Die #3 was Infantry, then Flag, then Infantry. Are those sequences? They were all misses, but the results weren't the same. If I had been attacking Infantry this would have been a good result and my opponent would be suspecting issues with the game but I wouldn't be complaining.

My point is, figuring out Sequences in the die results might be more complicated than just looking at the results because we have so many factors playing into things in Memoir '44. Different number of dice, uneven possible results (more likely to roll Infantry than anything else), and lots of ways to miss (or hit) depending on the situation.

Quote:

I have to confess statistics was never one of my strengths and so I must leave it to others to comment in detail. I am sure there are statisticians in our midst.


Yes, Stats was not a strength for me either, so once the mathematicians enter the scene I will be forced to put on my thinking cap and try to figure out what they're talking about!! Laughing
      
Phread
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 20:35
A (statistical) analysis of the rolls shouldn't care what the battle results of the rolls are.

We have sufficient data to show that the distribution is correct over a large number of rolls 2/6 infantry 1/6 for each of the others.

What we haven't seen is how that distribution is made up, whether or not the software generates sequences of rolls - that may or will effect battle results.

I await for the statisticians among us to comment (and I must now go an earn my keep).
      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 20:37
Phread wrote on Mon, 30 January 2012 23:35

A (statistical) analysis of the rolls shouldn't care what the battle results of the rolls are.


Ah, good point. Razz

However, a large reason that questions about the 'randomness' of the dice rolls keeps coming up is because of people's perception of die results. People keep seeing that they missed with 9 dice in a row and say, "This game must be rigged!" even though there are lots of possible combinations for missing.

That's not to say statistical data wouldn't help answer the questions people have, but I suspect that no matter how much data DoW provides, we'll keep having players ask if the game is actually random! Cool

[Updated on: Mon, 30 January 2012 20:44]

      
JFKoski
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 21:26
I don't think you'll find a pattern in your own games. I suspect the server is spitting out results for everyone's games one after the other. So I'm playing someone and roll the dice. Then someone at the next "table" rolls the dice, and so on. When it's my second roll, there probably were 10 rolls or so between them.
      
Freeloading Phill
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Mon, 30 January 2012 23:53
What seems suspicious to me is the number of rolls with 3 or 4 dice all showing the same face - particularly Tanks and Grenades.
Odds of 4 the same are 1 in 1296 and yet I see one or two a game.

Repetition like that is a hallmark of a random number generator that is sampling again before the seed or formula has changed again.

Phill
      
sam1812
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Tue, 31 January 2012 02:12
I'm not a statistician, but I played and analyzed my fair share of poker as a teenager. Smile

Phil, the odds of rolling 4 tanks is 1/1296. But since there are 4 different single faces (tank, grenade, flag, star), you'll see one or another of them 1/324 of the time.

In addition, there are 16 combinations if faces that will yield 4 infantries. So altogether, a 4d roll will be 4-of-a-kind 1/64.8 of the time.

By similar logic, on a 3d roll, you should get 3 of a single face 1/54 of the time, and 3 infantries (8 possible combinations) 1/27 of the time. So with a total of 12 combinations, you should roll triple-something 1/18 of the time. And yes, in an open tank battle, that's probably about once a game.

[Updated on: Tue, 31 January 2012 13:24]

      
sam1812
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Tue, 31 January 2012 02:37
Phread wrote on Mon, 30 January 2012 14:13

The formal proof would - if I recall correctly - involve a statistical analysis of a large number of rolls looking at more than the distribution of rolls.

I know there are tests for randomness, but I don't know what they are or how to use them.

Let me be absolutely clear: In saying, "nobody has ever proven that they are truly randomly distributed," I'm not claiming that they're non-random.

It could be a totally psychological phenomenon: We only notice the ones that show certain patterns. If you deal yourself a 5-card poker hand, that combination of cards is precisely as unlikely as the A-K-Q-J-10 of spades, but you notice the royal flush a heckuva lot more.

My subjective impression has been that, pretty frequently, one player or the other gets a much higher or lower hit rate than average against some type of unit. But that could be an illusion. Maybe there are just so many unusual things that could happen with the cards or dice, that one or another of them is bound to happen every couple of games.

And to answer somebody's question about whether it matters if the dice are a little streaky, as long as no player can predict the pattern ... if I knew that "cold" streaks were significantly more common than they "should" be, I'd probably try to stay in cover more, unless I thought I could win the game on the current turn.
      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Tue, 31 January 2012 20:47
Phread wrote on Mon, 30 January 2012 20:13

The formal proof would - if I recall correctly - involve a statistical analysis of a large number of rolls looking at more than the distribution of rolls.


A real formal proof would be a publication of the code used to generate the die rolls.

I read posts on this forum that Memoir 44 is written in Java.
If I were to program Memoir44 in Java, I would google random number generator in Java and I would come up with importing the Java.util.Random class, and even with using the code
int roll = generator.nextInt(6) + 1; to generate a "random" number between 1 and 6.

This works just fine. So why would I bother developing something else. However, this does not really generate a random number, but who cares. I don't!

Why don't I?
The server generates the die rolls for multiple games at the same time, and does not know the game state. He does not know the target of the roll, and so on... If two players roll 3 dice each at the same time during 2 different games, your 3 dice might not even be generated all at once, but dice from the other game might have been generated in between your die 1 and 2.
If there are streaks of the same symbol, the server does not know if it is a good streak or a bad one. If I get a streak of 3 tanks when attacking an artillery, I might think that is no fun, but when I get one against a tank, you will not hear me complain.

So the dice might not be completely random, but as long as the fact that they are not random does not favour a player, and the 6 faces of the die have the same probability to occur, I don't care. So far, no-one has claimed he can beat the dice rolling system and can predict the dice, and so far I have seen no proof of any player being favoured or punished (except maybe Phread Laughing ) by the system.

So it's cool by me.

oh, and maybe it is best they don't publish the dice generator code, because then players might start trying to beat the system ... Shocked

[Updated on: Tue, 31 January 2012 20:50]

      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Tue, 31 January 2012 21:13
Quit2 wrote on Tue, 31 January 2012 23:47

oh, and maybe it is best they don't publish the dice generator code, because then players might start trying to beat the system ... Shocked


Maybe this is one of the reasons they haven't released any code. Smile A person on a different forum asked DoW to release the Memoir '44 code so outside programmers could work on an Android version. I don't know much about programming, but I would think that releasing the code might be asking for trouble of all flavors! Do computer game companies really do that?! Rolling Eyes
      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Tue, 31 January 2012 22:25
I, for one, am not asking DoW to release any code.

If the die rolling software is based on the java random number generator I would expect that - somewhere - someone has a verification of the randomness of this random nnumber generator.

If not I'd like to see better verification of the (statistical) randomness of the DoW random number (die rolling) software.

We've seen evidence of the distribution of rolls. Great. But even a bad random number generator should get the distribution right. Note: I am not saying M44 online's die are crooked - I'd just like better evidence they are good quality.

If you want to review my recent SFTF battles - particulary some against the AI - you will see I am in a majority of the games getting outshot by players with better dice and cards.

My bad luck, possibly. But it aint much fun anymore.
      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 02:44
Quit2 wrote on Tue, 31 January 2012 14:47

The server generates the die rolls for multiple games at the same time....

This is a very powerful argument. It's difficult to argue that there are streaks within one game, when such a widely varying number of die rolls occurs between the "consecutive" rolls that you see.
      
Phread
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 02:47
Review/replay some of my many recent losses and tell me that you don't see sequences. Mad Mad Mad

I am not arguing - despite my evidence - that the dice are bad.
I am saying we have no evidence for the goodness/badness of the dice except for distribution of rolls.
      
Stormhorse
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 05:43
I certainly can't speak to the dice math, but I have noticed that "Johnny" seems to have an amazing hand of cards. He has yet to have to play a Recon card or get stuck with 6 cards all in a sector without a unit (which has happened to me a few times). I recently lost 12 games in a row. I've played M44 for over 2 years with a bunch of different players - I have never lost 12 in a row before. Not even 6 in a row. The jury is still out for me. I don't really enjoy the online game as much. This has really opened my eyes to the "luck"factor in the game which I didn't really notice when I play on a table. I thought I'd love this but it's actually got me looking at other games like Conflict of Heroes.

[Updated on: Wed, 01 February 2012 05:46]

      
JFKoski
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 07:06
Let's say it's been established that in 100,000 rolls each image is rolled 16,666 +- 50 maybe, except infantry which would be 33,333 +- 50. I believe something like this was posted elsewhere.

Also, someone posted that for his 100 or 200 games, the rolls are pretty even, like they should be. So it's not like Phread pushes the attack button and the server says, "I don't like him, I'm going to throw an extra star in there every 10th roll just for him." Or an extra grenade for yours truly.

So I was thinking in the shower the other day. Suppose they aren't random, but rather based on the month and day of the year. So the same rolls in the same sequence pop out every February 1st. How would this benefit/hurt you?

You'd need a copy of last year's results and to know where you are in the sequence. I suppose you could be at DOW with a program that would do this for you. Even then you would have to be really quick to take advantage of a run of grenades, before they went to someone else.

Sometimes I feel like there's an indicator like the one for Ambush. If you choose right you get what you want, like 3 tank hits. If you choose wrong, you've wasted these rolls against infantry.
      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 07:51
JFKoski wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 10:06

So I was thinking in the shower the other day. Suppose they aren't random, but rather based on the month and day of the year. So the same rolls in the same sequence pop out every February 1st. How would this benefit/hurt you?

You'd need a copy of last year's results and to know where you are in the sequence. I suppose you could be at DOW with a program that would do this for you. Even then you would have to be really quick to take advantage of a run of grenades, before they went to someone else.


Hmmm?! Laughing Laughing I'm very confused why DoW would possibly do something like this. I think they were able to make a program that can generate a continual list of results. Razz

Quote:

Sometimes I feel like there's an indicator like the one for Ambush. If you choose right you get what you want, like 3 tank hits. If you choose wrong, you've wasted these rolls against infantry.


I think the word "feel" in there is key...DoW has created a Random Generator, not a triggered response. Smile We can wonder about if the program has sequences, but I don't think we have to wonder if it's random! DoW has even published evidence that it's random, not based on your chosen target. Cool

[Updated on: Wed, 01 February 2012 08:33]

      
Nygaard
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 09:06
Stormhorse wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 05:43

I certainly can't speak to the dice math, but I have noticed that "Johnny" seems to have an amazing hand of cards. He has yet to have to play a Recon card or get stuck with 6 cards all in a sector without a unit (which has happened to me a few times). I recently lost 12 games in a row. I've played M44 for over 2 years with a bunch of different players - I have never lost 12 in a row before. Not even 6 in a row. The jury is still out for me. I don't really enjoy the online game as much. This has really opened my eyes to the "luck"factor in the game which I didn't really notice when I play on a table. I thought I'd love this but it's actually got me looking at other games like Conflict of Heroes.


Sounds like you need to read the Tactics and Strategy Guide. Do you know French?
Once you get to understand the game a little more, you'll see it's not about luck in the long run (otherwise you wouldn't have the same 10-20 people constantly at the top of the ranking).

If you stick at it you'll quickly learn how Johnny works. He always plays his best cards, and always rolls a maximum number of dice for a given card. But he often plays recklessly - and is MUCH easier to beat than good human players.

As for 12 in a row online - I've been there, and I don't think I've ever lost that many in a row playing on the board. Perhaps you have a better view of the situation when you play at the table, or you look at the scenario more carefully because you have to actually put it up, whereas online people often just jump into scenarios without looking it over.
      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 09:38
rasmussen81 wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 19:51


I think the word "feel" in there is key...DoW has created a Random Generator, not a triggered response. Smile We can wonder about if the program has sequences, but I don't think we have to wonder if it's random! DoW has even published evidence that it's random, not based on your chosen target. Cool


DoW haven't actually published evidence that it is random Exclamation Exclamation Exclamation

DoW has published evidence that the distribution is correct - but that doesn't actually prove that it is random, only that given enough rolls the distribution is correct.

An extreme example would be a pseudo random number generator that generated a sequence 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 3 4 5 6 1 3 4 5 6 1 2 .... it would generate the correct distribution but would not be random. That is a silly example but shows a non random random number generator can generate a correct distribution.

I believe M44 online has a quality random number generator but that is a faith based statement as I have not seen any evidence to back up that belief.
      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 10:25
Hmm, even if the numbers would not be randomly generated but a sequential list, then at least the moment on which a request on that list is done, would be random. Not that I think that the number is not randomly generated. But to speak.
      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 11:49
Phread wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 12:38

rasmussen81 wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 19:51


I think the word "feel" in there is key...DoW has created a Random Generator, not a triggered response. Smile We can wonder about if the program has sequences, but I don't think we have to wonder if it's random! DoW has even published evidence that it's random, not based on your chosen target. Cool


DoW haven't actually published evidence that it is random Exclamation Exclamation Exclamation

DoW has published evidence that the distribution is correct - but that doesn't actually prove that it is random, only that given enough rolls the distribution is correct.


Fair enough. Smile We don't have proof that it's 'perfectly random' (still a contradition of terms if you ask me) but my point was more focused on the fact that whatever mechanism they have in place, it isn't the kind of thing where if you pick the right target you get three hits and if you pick the wrong target you miss! No matter what quality the program is, it's still a random generator!! Cool

[Updated on: Wed, 01 February 2012 11:50]

      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 13:14
Also to be truly random, each die is figured separately from all the other dice.
This is what makes it possible to occasionally get a run of dice with one suit or the same facet.

[Updated on: Wed, 01 February 2012 13:15]

      
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 13:37
i used to learn programming back in college and there is really a command to create a randomized number in a compiler. I don't know how the code works but I've tested it thousand times and it's truly random, so probably that same code that was used in this program ?
      
A_Canadian_eh
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 17:58
Not a theoretical math expert here...but isn't the issue of "true randomness" (which I agree is an oxymoron!) irrelevant in this setting?

Randomness can refer to accurate distribution of results - I think it has been established that the distribution is random.

Randomness can also refer to absence of a recurring pattern and/or the absence of "streaks" (whether as part of a recurring pattern or simply as a random Razz occurence).

Given that numbers are being generated for an unknown number of players rolling an unknown number of dice between any two of my rolls, I really don't see how the results that I get to play with can be considered anything other than random? (Interesting question - if I and another player each roll 6 dice for a "turn" at the "same time", does one of us get the next 6 numbers generated and the other the 6 after that, or is each die generated independently, which would mean even the results of one "roll" could be intermeshed with someone else's results?)

The only possible issue I can see is that if one assumes a quirk in the random generator which results in there being a disproportionate chance that the same number will (or will not) come up consecutively, one could adjust play accordingly (e.g. if the chances of 6 coming up 4 times in a row is lower than statistics would indicate because of a flaw in the generator, then trying to win the game on an all out gamble involving rolling 4 tanks is probably not a wise decision.) However, for this to be the case, given the issue of mulitple rolls/players occurring simultaneously, wouldn't one have to assume an absurd level of "malfunction" in the generating routine before it could actually affect play and/or allow anyone side an advantage?
      
Quit2
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 20:53
Nightrain wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 13:37

i used to learn programming back in college and there is really a command to create a randomized number in a compiler. I don't know how the code works but I've tested it thousand times and it's truly random, so probably that same code that was used in this program ?


Well, actually those "built-in" random number generators are not truly random.
Most of them use the clock of the computer, and more precisely the last digit of the miliseconds.
That's a digit that is always between 0 and 9. And appears to be random. You can release an algorithm on that to have a supposedly random number from 1 to 6 to represent a die roll.

So this all appears to be random, but if you'd press the button exactly on the same milisecond every time, you'd get the same result every time.

Others use very large predefined strings of numbers (with each number having the same number of occurences in the file and "randomly" mixed together). Each generation of the next random number, he takes the next number in the file.
Again, appears to be random, but if you'd hit the button everytime when the file is at the same position, you'd get the same result ....

But again, it does not matter if Memoir44 online uses either of these systems. If the player cannot know what milisecond it is on the DoW die rolling server, or what position the "predefined random array of numbers" is at, no player can get an advantage out of it.
What is more important is that the die results are evenly distributed amongst the 6 sides of the die. (which is actually better than with my wooden dice, of which one has a microscopic dent from falling on the ground Wink )
      
Clexton27
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Wed, 01 February 2012 21:43
I find if I hold my breath for 10 seconds, breathe out slowly and click the mouse with a half-second rolling click, I can get it to roll a grenade every time.

Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Rolling Eyes
      
Nightrain
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Thu, 02 February 2012 09:07
Quit2 wrote on Thu, 02 February 2012 02:53

Nightrain wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 13:37

i used to learn programming back in college and there is really a command to create a randomized number in a compiler. I don't know how the code works but I've tested it thousand times and it's truly random, so probably that same code that was used in this program ?


Well, actually those "built-in" random number generators are not truly random.
Most of them use the clock of the computer, and more precisely the last digit of the miliseconds.
That's a digit that is always between 0 and 9. And appears to be random. You can release an algorithm on that to have a supposedly random number from 1 to 6 to represent a die roll.

So this all appears to be random, but if you'd press the button exactly on the same milisecond every time, you'd get the same result every time.

Others use very large predefined strings of numbers (with each number having the same number of occurences in the file and "randomly" mixed together). Each generation of the next random number, he takes the next number in the file.
Again, appears to be random, but if you'd hit the button everytime when the file is at the same position, you'd get the same result ....

But again, it does not matter if Memoir44 online uses either of these systems. If the player cannot know what milisecond it is on the DoW die rolling server, or what position the "predefined random array of numbers" is at, no player can get an advantage out of it.
What is more important is that the die results are evenly distributed amongst the 6 sides of the die. (which is actually better than with my wooden dice, of which one has a microscopic dent from falling on the ground Wink )



Thanks for the explanation friend. Well since human can't hit an exactly same milisecond everytime he moves/press button then we can safely assume that this type of random generator works perfectly fine.

Or even if they create a 5000 set of predefined dices result and each roll will activate one of this number each time a player on a game rolls, still human can't exactly predict which one is going to be shown since many games are played at a given time, so it's still a random result to me.
      
Nightrain
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Thu, 02 February 2012 09:08
stevens wrote on Thu, 02 February 2012 03:43

I find if I hold my breath for 10 seconds, breathe out slowly and click the mouse with a half-second rolling click, I can get it to roll a grenade every time.

Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Rolling Eyes


if that works, I need to learn to hold my breath for 30 seconds to triple grenade you, Paul Very Happy

[Updated on: Thu, 02 February 2012 09:10]

      
Helcat
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Thu, 02 February 2012 11:32
stevens wrote on Thu, 02 February 2012 03:43

I find if I hold my breath for 10 seconds, breathe out slowly and click the mouse with a half-second rolling click, I can get it to roll a grenade every time.



I tried to order my Japanese troops on a Kamikaze action once.

Can somebody tell me if it worked?

[Updated on: Thu, 02 February 2012 13:25]

      
rasmussen81
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Thu, 02 February 2012 11:45
Helcat wrote on Thu, 02 February 2012 14:32

I tried to order my Japanese troops on a Kamikaze action once.

Can somebody tell me if it worked?



What?! Laughing Rolling Eyes Laughing
      
Clexton27
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Thu, 02 February 2012 14:21
stevens wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 15:43

I find if I hold my breath for 10 seconds, breathe out slowly and click the mouse with a half-second rolling click, I can get it to roll a grenade every time.

Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Rolling Eyes


The problem is, if I am off by just a millisecond.... it rolls something else.

Laughing Laughing Laughing Cool
      
Helcat
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Re:Are the dice rolls & card deals really chance? Thu, 02 February 2012 14:48
stevens wrote on Thu, 02 February 2012 14:21

stevens wrote on Wed, 01 February 2012 15:43

I find if I hold my breath for 10 seconds, breathe out slowly and click the mouse with a half-second rolling click, I can get it to roll a grenade every time.

Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Rolling Eyes


The problem is, if I am off by just a millisecond.... it rolls something else.

Laughing Laughing Laughing Cool


Well, we are laughing about that but: if you look at this page under the heading True Randomness you might read that mousemovements can be the input for a randomgenerator.

http://www.random.org/randomness/
      
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