deepnet
Messages: 64
Enregistré(e) en : December 2005

Probabilities analysis for MM44, spreadsheet, and complex odds calculator

Sat, 02 August 2014 04:15


Hello Folks:
So, I've been wondering lately about the odds of certain situations in MM44, especially with overruns, in odd situations (different numbers of dice for each phase of the battle.) I've looked at some available MM44 spreadsheets and the like, and didn't really see what I was looking for.
So, I wrote a bunch, and I'm making them available to anyone who is interested!
First, the download URL:
http://www.deepnettech.com/tmp/mmcalc.zip
Contents:
 mm_calc.xls: a spreadsheet, that shows singleroll and overrun probabilities of death of a unit, based on number of dice, and health of the unit.
 MM44Calc.exe: a Windows command tool, which can be used to calculate specific unit death odds for any combination of single roll, overrun, health of defending unit, and variable dice for the first and second attack (overrun). Run it by itself, to show the command line usage/parameters. This tool does a full combinatorial analysis of all possible outcomes in the setup, to determine the odds.
 main.cpp: the C++ source code for the above program, free for anyone to review, edit, use, abuse, etc! There are of course NO viruses or anything in the program... I compiled it myself, for Windows, but it is portable to any C++ environment for the curious.
The single roll table in the spreadsheet is probability based, since that case is fairly simple (it is in effect a 'Bernoulli Trial'). The overrun case is more complicated, and I used the MM44Calc program to determine the corresponding values in the overrun table in the spreadsheet. I have manually computed the statistical probability of a few cases, to ensure the overrun program values are correct.
The command line tool is like this:
=============
MM44Calc.exe [# defending units] [# die hits on attack 1] [# of die on attack #1] <# die hits on attack 2> <# of die on attack #2>
 # defending units: 1 to 4, # of units in the defender
 # die hits on attack 1: number of die faces that are a hit, from 1 to 4
 # of die on attack #1: # of dice that are rolled on the first attack
 # die hits on attack 2 (optional): number of die faces that are a hit, from 1 to 4
 # of die on attack #2 (optional): # of dice that are rolled on the second attack
Table commands:
release\MM44Calc.exe single
 generate the single roll attack tables
release\MM44Calc.exe overruns
 generate the simple overrun attack tables
=================
For example, suppose you want to know the odds of an inf. wiping out a healthy 3tank with retreat options, adjacent: MM44Calc 3 2 3 0 0. 3 for 3 units in the tank, 2 for die facings that are hits (grenade, tank), 3 for # dice the inf rolls. From the second table in the spreadsheet, 3/3 column: 3.70%. Suppose it's a Japanese full strength unit, Close Assault, or Finest Hour (i.e. 4 die): MM44Calc 3 2 4 0 0, 11.11%.
Now, suppose it's a tank attack that tank, with an overrun option (i.e. retreat available): MM44Calc 3 2 3 2 3, or 13.29%! Quite a jump up from 3.7% for one attack!
Suppose the first attack is only one die: MM44Calc 3 2 1 2 3: 0.62% (ugh!).
Anyway, this gives you the flavour of the tools. The program can answer many more questions than what is in the spreadsheet.
Enjoy!


sam1812
Messages: 2666
Enregistré(e) en : August 2006

Re:Probabilities analysis for MM44, spreadsheet, and complex odds calculator

Sat, 02 August 2014 15:37


Hi, Deepnet 
A nice analysis.
(You probably won't be surprised to learn that a few others have done their own variations of this in the past  which doesn't detract in any way from what you've done.)
In the spreadsheet, I can confirm that your first column of tables is correct. You might want to add a table for 5 "hit dice," for air strikes, and other cases where stars are hits, with no retreat.
I wasn't sure exactly what the righthand set of tables represents. Is that the probability of a tank attacking a unit and scoring a kill through either the initial attack or (with the aid of flags) an overrun?
Sam


deepnet
Messages: 64
Enregistré(e) en : December 2005

Re:Probabilities analysis for MM44, spreadsheet, and complex odds calculator

Sat, 02 August 2014 22:55


sam1812 wrote on Sat, 02 August 2014 09:37  Hi, Deepnet 
A nice analysis.
(You probably won't be surprised to learn that a few others have done their own variations of this in the past  which doesn't detract in any way from what you've done.)
In the spreadsheet, I can confirm that your first column of tables is correct. You might want to add a table for 5 "hit dice," for air strikes, and other cases where stars are hits, with no retreat.
I wasn't sure exactly what the righthand set of tables represents. Is that the probability of a tank attacking a unit and scoring a kill through either the initial attack or (with the aid of flags) an overrun?
Sam

Thank you Sam. Indeed, I've seen a few similar things, but none that quite did what I wanted. Plus, it's fun to code it anyway!
The right hand side are for tank overruns, factoring in the first and second attack. The little program was used to compute those values. It assumes the same number of dice for each attack, but the program allows you to use different #s of dice for the first and overrun attack.
5 dice... indeed, you are correct! I have extended the tables as you note, in the current download. Thank you for the suggestion.
I welcome any and all input and suggestions folks!


deepnet
Messages: 64
Enregistré(e) en : December 2005

Re:Probabilities analysis for MM44, spreadsheet, and complex odds calculator

Sat, 02 August 2014 22:57


Quote:  I wasn't sure exactly what the righthand set of tables represents. Is that the probability of a tank attacking a unit and scoring a kill through either the initial attack or (with the aid of flags) an overrun?

To be clear... that side represents death on either the first attack or second overrun, either way. The % noted is just the % chance of death of the defender, for that situation, assuming there is open overrun option (with the same # of dice... the program can be used for different dice on the two attacks).

