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HamonSerrano
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December 2010
RBF: Red Barricades Factory Thu, 24 November 2011 16:01
Dear M44 fans!

I started this topic to share my Memoir 44 experience with you.

In every board game which uses dice, there is a big role for luck. Drawing cards randomly is the same.
I like to play board games, and i like to win. I am a competitive person. My goal is always victory, but i always

appreciate an excellent opponent too! Smile

I don't like that luck has a big role in this M44 game. This is a historical strategic game. Every player accept the

historical odds of allied/axis side. We can replay the historical battles. Sometimes we can rewrite history by

changing the end of the battles. If two players who has approximately the same strategic skills play against each

other, they often play a draw (1-1 win each). Or they should, but luck decides other.
I would enjoy this game more, if my results would show more strategic skills instead of my "luck-meter". That's why i

started to look after the mathematical side of M44. There are other posts, where you wrote about how many % chance do

you have in certain situations, when you roll the dice.
I don't want repeat that. I just want to share my experience in this topic, if you are interested.

Lot of players start a battle with the expression: "Good luck". I don't like to use this. I often wrote them back,

that i hope not luck will decide! And i really mean this serious! Smile

As some of you already realized my favourite scenario is Red Barricades Factory (later as "RBF"). This is not a

coincidence.

I found the RBF scenario ideal for my measuring test. Most of the scenarios are too short to beat your bad luck with

strategic skills. It is a long battle. You need to collect 10 medals to win.
Compare to other maps, where you have to collect only 4-5 medals to win a scenario, sometimes you or your opponent

needs only several turns (less than 10) to fulfil this goal. If you start with a bad hand (very few or zero useful

cards in your hand) you might not have the time, to controll the game, you can only assist to the opponent's victory.

This is not a very happy feeling. This same happens to you if you are unlucky and are able to roll only the useless

figures after and after each other. And this will lead you to another loss. One of the most annoying problems when

you feel, you could be able to win the scenario, but your cards were much worse than your opponent's cards, or you

rolled the dice worse than expected.(example infantry under 50% or armor under 33%). It happens very often. Memoir

should be a strategy game and not a gambling!

You can not controll dice rolls and drawing cards in this game. These are built-in rules! You have to accept that!

Don't forget that the opponent is challenging with the same problem.
If you fed up with having a "bad luck series" again, what can you do then? Try RBF!

Generally this map is a long one (compare to other maps). You can play 30-40 turns to reach victory, sometimes even

more. And don't imagine that as a disadvantage! No! This is a good thing. This gives you (and your opponent too) the

opportunity to think, to plan your strategy.
This map has a great variety of chances. Defending town hexes is very interesting. Moreover there is the sniper unit,

who can be a special tactical unit in your strategy. This not a hunting like Panzers vs. grants. It is not just shoot

what you can!

I know that you can not win every game! Everbody has good luck and bad luck, and it is changing all the time. But in

RBF scenario, there is a good chance to survive a bad period, and come back from an almost impossible situation.

I think the real players enjoy a close/tight game (where players have almost the same scores), even it is a loss,

more than an easy victory against a rookie!

I wanted to test this scenario and myself: Is it possible to win in more than 50% of the battles on RBF?

I wanted to play not only ten games, but more! Because it would have been a too small comprehension to get real

results. 100 games sounds much better. To play hundred games on RBF needs a lot of your free time. At the beginning,

my battles took about an hour, sometimes even more. But later it was much less, about 30 minutes in average. It

depends on several factors (Computer, internet connection, knowledge of M44, knowledge of RBF and skills of the

players). My quickest game took about 16 minutes on RBF. Good dice roll % also helps you to get early victory.

I saw that many players played more than 1000 games with M44 online. I thought that 100 game is not enough, so i

continued my test. I just reached 200 games on RBF. Most of these games had rematch battles too.
I made screenshots about the game results. I typed all the data of 200 RBF battles into an excel file.
You can say i am a little obsessed. True. I was curious. I wanted to find out is there any chance to battle with

luck? I think anybody who played at least 2 games in M44 can agree with me, that during a battle you feel that the

opponent has bigger luck than you have. But at the end, when you see the total results of the dice rolls it is not

always confirmed. why? Because generally everybody is focusing on his/her side, and we all have a tendency to think

about ourselves first.

I wanted to get proof of the numbers. I wanted to know that luck will make it equal sometime, or not?
I collected the results of 200 games, to see, what are the real chances of dice rolling?

Are you interested too?

Here are my numbers:

Number of battles on RBF: 200
Number of total dice rolls: 27073

figures:
9097 (33,60%) - infantry
4518 (16,69%) - armor
4449 (16,43%) - grenade
4526 (16,72%) - flag
4483 (16,56%) - star

Average dice roll / battle: 135,365

We can say, that more than 27 thousand dice rolls is huge number. I know that mathematically this is still far away

from infinity Smile But this is a good sign for me. Be patient, and luck will change. You will get the results what you

need, just be patient. Be ready!

I have more details, but i keep them as a secret for a while. If you read this post (quite a long one), and you are

still interested in the topic, write me back your opinion.

Until you get my response, play RBF! And don't let Luck to decide your games! Smile

Thanks!
HamonSerrano

[Mis à jour le: Thu, 24 November 2011 19:14]

      

SujetCréé parDate
  RBF: Red Barricades Factory  HamonSerranoThu, 24 November 2011 16:01
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Clexton27Thu, 24 November 2011 16:26
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory sam1812Thu, 24 November 2011 16:40
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HelcatThu, 24 November 2011 17:33
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory rasmussen81Thu, 24 November 2011 20:06
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory hdescavernesThu, 24 November 2011 20:15
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory rasmussen81Thu, 24 November 2011 20:25
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory hdescavernesThu, 24 November 2011 22:32
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory NightrainThu, 24 November 2011 17:24
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Quit2Thu, 24 November 2011 20:28
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory PhreadThu, 24 November 2011 22:15
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory hdescavernesThu, 24 November 2011 22:33
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoThu, 24 November 2011 23:04
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory NygaardFri, 25 November 2011 20:13
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoSun, 27 November 2011 17:12
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory bikiniMon, 28 November 2011 15:22
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoSat, 17 December 2011 20:49
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory ppodahuSun, 18 December 2011 10:39
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoSat, 07 January 2012 18:35
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory NygaardSat, 07 January 2012 21:25
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory FrostbergSun, 08 January 2012 20:51
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory JJAZTue, 10 January 2012 18:28
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory rasmussen81Tue, 10 January 2012 19:11
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoWed, 18 January 2012 21:49
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoFri, 24 February 2012 19:27
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Burdie SmithFri, 24 February 2012 20:16
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory stevie02Fri, 24 February 2012 21:00
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory JeronimonFri, 24 February 2012 21:29
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory clorofilaSat, 25 February 2012 02:04
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory PhreadSat, 25 February 2012 02:06
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory NygaardSat, 25 February 2012 11:04
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory LooneyLlamaSat, 25 February 2012 17:40
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory FogminsterSat, 25 February 2012 20:32
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory ppodahuSun, 26 February 2012 13:04
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory JFKoskiTue, 28 February 2012 03:16
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Dietrich von KleistFri, 02 March 2012 13:43
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory airstrikeFri, 16 March 2012 21:53
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory stevie02Fri, 16 March 2012 22:29
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory airstrikeFri, 16 March 2012 23:38
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory stevie02Sat, 17 March 2012 09:19
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory airstrikeSat, 17 March 2012 11:59
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory airstrikeMon, 26 March 2012 13:16
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoWed, 29 August 2012 08:43
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoSun, 02 September 2012 15:04
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory kolbaszosorbitFri, 21 December 2012 01:08
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Dietrich von KleistFri, 21 December 2012 07:18
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory airstrikeThu, 28 February 2013 17:17
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoSun, 17 March 2013 14:13
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory airstrikeThu, 21 March 2013 16:37
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoThu, 21 March 2013 17:17
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoSat, 17 March 2012 10:09
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoWed, 28 March 2012 16:27
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory ArtimonThu, 21 March 2013 17:41
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory airstrikeSun, 24 March 2013 19:18
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoSat, 22 June 2013 16:07
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory JeronimonSat, 22 June 2013 19:31
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory Clexton27Sun, 23 June 2013 00:28
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory JFKoskiSun, 23 June 2013 04:45
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory clorofilaSun, 23 June 2013 15:45
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory silenttimoTue, 30 July 2013 12:27
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory airstrikeTue, 27 August 2013 14:50
  random thoughts General StrikeMon, 02 September 2013 23:56
  Re:random thoughts JAParkerTue, 03 September 2013 00:28
  Re:random thoughts JJAZTue, 03 September 2013 07:06
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory silenttimoTue, 03 September 2013 14:09
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory General StrikeThu, 05 September 2013 22:26
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoSun, 08 September 2013 20:13
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory ArtimonSun, 08 September 2013 20:56
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoTue, 10 September 2013 19:59
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoTue, 17 September 2013 11:13
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoTue, 17 September 2013 11:18
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoTue, 17 September 2013 11:19
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoTue, 17 September 2013 11:21
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory JeronimonWed, 18 September 2013 07:27
  Re:RBF: Red Barricades Factory HamonSerranoWed, 18 September 2013 11:48
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